$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukey', 'i')t's a good thing u can run tractors on batteries too
oh wait
never mind
PeakOil is You
The Peak Oil Theory
Re: The Peak Oil Theory
by TheDude » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 23:44:58
How about extension cords for tractors?
Are you familiar with something called a hill?
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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TheDude - Expert
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Re: The Peak Oil Theory
by johnmarkos » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 02:20:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'B')ut that's a pretty generous assessment of the future considering humanity's tendency to fight about stuff don't ya think?
Well, the past four and a half years have shown us that expensive oil does not correlate with enthusiasm towards petroleum-related war. Assuming Iraq war =~ "going to war over oil,"
Price of oil in March, 2003: about $35/barrel
U.S. attitude towards going to war over oil: mostly enthusiastic
Price of oil in November 2007: about $95/barrel
U.S. attitude towards going to war over oil: quite negative
So following the curve, as peakers like to do, once oil reaches 200 bucks a barrel, Americans'll be total petro-pacifists.
To do serious futurism you need to think historically. The future is a kind of history that hasn't happened yet. - Bruce Sterling
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Re: The Peak Oil Theory
by Kingcoal » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 14:33:43
Peak Oil is about the typical production curve of an individual oil reservoir. At first, the EROEI is very good; huge amounts of oil, forcing itself into your hands at a very high rate. After a while, the pressure goes down and you have to start adding pressure, the EROEI goes down and it becomes more expensive, but still worth the effort. Eventually however, the pressure is gone completely. Generally this occurs when about half of the oil has been extracted. You can still produce oil from the well and even produce at a decent EROEI, BUT THE AMOUNT YOU ARE ABLE TO PRODUCE ON A DAILY BASIS IS A TINY FRACTION OF WHAT THE WELL ORIGINALLY PRODUCED. To call it tiny is actually an understatement. Most of the time, it's not worth the effort to put a pump on a well. They don't cost much, but they produce next to nothing, kind of like trying to drink water through a 0.5mm straw. By the time you get a gallon out, you will be exhausted and possibly close to death.
We don’t just need oil at decent EROEI, we need LOTS of it, every day. If I recall correctly, the US consumes about one cubic mile of oil each and every day. If, over a couple of years, the availability of that oil drops in half, which is possible, our economy will die of dehydration. It won’t be that we won’t be able to afford the oil, it will be that we just won’t be able to get it. We won’t be able to make petrochemical fertilizers, we won’t be able to make plastics, we won’t be able to make semiconductors and won’t be able to make batteries… The list goes on and on. We need hydrocarbons to make just about everything. The oil windfall will be gone and we will have to figure out how to manufacture without it.
Oil sands, shale oil, biofuels, etc, all have the same problem; production volume. Using current technology, you just can’t produce enough usable hydrocarbons fast enough in a sustainable manor to supply the world economy. That means the world economy has no choice but to shrink, slowly at first and then drastically as more and more wells run dry.
If, thirty years ago, we had embarked on a real conservation program, we’d be in pretty good shape right now. However, we chose a different path. We’ve created oil pacifism; we pacify the world by maintaining cheap, available oil and a huge market were countries can sell their products and thus employ their people. When that oil availability goes down, there will be non-stop warfare for a while until nations lose the ability to fuel their war machines. After that, there will be a great die off, as nations lose their ability to feed their people en mass. Eventually, populations will stabilize around a sustainable number.
You have to understand that our entire economy is based on the oil windfall. It’s like ripping the rug out from under absolutely everything we do in modern society. I really don’t understand why that concept is so hard to grasp. I guess people aren’t aware of the underpinnings of our modern economy.
We don’t just need oil at decent EROEI, we need LOTS of it, every day. If I recall correctly, the US consumes about one cubic mile of oil each and every day. If, over a couple of years, the availability of that oil drops in half, which is possible, our economy will die of dehydration. It won’t be that we won’t be able to afford the oil, it will be that we just won’t be able to get it. We won’t be able to make petrochemical fertilizers, we won’t be able to make plastics, we won’t be able to make semiconductors and won’t be able to make batteries… The list goes on and on. We need hydrocarbons to make just about everything. The oil windfall will be gone and we will have to figure out how to manufacture without it.
Oil sands, shale oil, biofuels, etc, all have the same problem; production volume. Using current technology, you just can’t produce enough usable hydrocarbons fast enough in a sustainable manor to supply the world economy. That means the world economy has no choice but to shrink, slowly at first and then drastically as more and more wells run dry.
If, thirty years ago, we had embarked on a real conservation program, we’d be in pretty good shape right now. However, we chose a different path. We’ve created oil pacifism; we pacify the world by maintaining cheap, available oil and a huge market were countries can sell their products and thus employ their people. When that oil availability goes down, there will be non-stop warfare for a while until nations lose the ability to fuel their war machines. After that, there will be a great die off, as nations lose their ability to feed their people en mass. Eventually, populations will stabilize around a sustainable number.
You have to understand that our entire economy is based on the oil windfall. It’s like ripping the rug out from under absolutely everything we do in modern society. I really don’t understand why that concept is so hard to grasp. I guess people aren’t aware of the underpinnings of our modern economy.
"That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
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Re: The Peak Oil Theory
by Poordogabone » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 14:38:11
"Of course, due to the range limitation, EV tractors won't be able to work farms larger than 150 miles."
How did you come up with that number!
I doubt a tractor could till a 1/2 square mile field running on present day batteries, in one charge, remember it's as heavy as a tank and does much more work than just going forward.
The extension cables too unpractical, I'm surprised you didn't come up with a solar panel farm equipped with microwave dish beaming energy to it's fleet of tractors, at least that is something to contemplate.
How did you come up with that number!
I doubt a tractor could till a 1/2 square mile field running on present day batteries, in one charge, remember it's as heavy as a tank and does much more work than just going forward.
The extension cables too unpractical, I'm surprised you didn't come up with a solar panel farm equipped with microwave dish beaming energy to it's fleet of tractors, at least that is something to contemplate.
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Re: The Peak Oil Theory
by JohnDenver » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 08:32:11
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'I')f, over a couple of years, the availability of that oil drops in half, which is possible, our economy will die of dehydration.
Possible, but unlikely in the extreme.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t won’t be that we won’t be able to afford the oil, it will be that we just won’t be able to get it.
This is more like a nuclear war scenario than a peak oil scenario. Peak oil involves a slow decline of oil production over decades. The U.S. peaked in 1970, and now (37 years later) still hasn't dropped to half its peak levels.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e won’t be able to make petrochemical fertilizers,
You don't need oil to make fertilizer. You don't need fossil fuel of any kind to make fertilizer.
Details here if you're still confused:Peak Oil and Fertilizer: No Problem
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')e won’t be able to make plastics,
Plastics account for only a small fraction of oil use, and can be made from coal, tar sands and bitumen, which remain extremely abundant. Plastic goods can also be made from other materials, such as wood, metal, glass, ceramic etc. Plastic can also be recycled.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')e won’t be able to make semiconductors and won’t be able to make batteries…
