[WhatMeWorry]

Sittinguy said "and hey whata know they have lost some money,, what a shocker I moved all my money out about a month ago"

How did you go about moving your money out of your 401k or was it just the market in general you were talking about?

[Revi]

These things have a way of ratcheting up slowly. The price of oil is going up, correcting and going up some more. It is going to wreck some people at $3 a gallon. Others will be out of the game at $4. Here in Maine it has already done some damage. I know three families that can't afford to heat their homes.

We're just at the beginning of a long slow emergency. This week there was some correction, but so what. People who are going broke heating their house and driving to work got a little breather. Maybe. $3.20 for oil means people are less and less able to afford the extras that keep the economy spinning.

[sittinguy]

Most 401k's have a option of a plain interest bearing plan, along with the usual dozen funds to choose from, mine was 4%. No exposure to stocks,,, so they say. I would have lost a few thousand by now if I had left it there. With my plan I can move my money from fund to fund once daily,, if I want. But I am happy with the lowest risk I can get now.

[jasonraymondson]

If you all would just read my posts you would understand all that you need to.

There is no sudden collapse, only the winding staircase of depression.

But, you are all obcessed with creating fantastical stories that you can't see what is right in front of you. I understand why you all try to create these outrageous stories about a sudden collapse or stories about how the zombie hordes are right around the corner

You tell yourselves these horrible stories, so that when things don't go that bad then you will be pleasantly surprised and so you can live with what the real outcome is.

but this shit backfires on you, and you need to wake up and live in reality.

We need to be preparing for a slow, drawn out depression. (but there is no way to really prepare for this, as anything we try to stock up down will just dwindle away and we will never in our lifetimes really survive it out. Most of us will be long dead before the country and the world begins to heal itself from what we have done to it.

So enjoy life now, because there is no preparing. We are just going to have to suffer.

[perdition79]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 'S')o enjoy life now, because there is no preparing. We are just going to have to suffer.

[Newfie]

Recently - some where - I read a brief article on "denial." It is a unnecessary human trait that, on a daily basis, lets us over look the misdeeds and shortcomings in ourselves and those close to us. It can also go too far and then we get into trouble - as in excessive gambling "I'll just win it back."

My 2 cents. Unfortunately, in our connected "global village" we can also have a sort of collective denial. The DOT.COM bust was one example. The recent sub-prime fiasco is another. Simple common sense would have told you it was too good to be true. Yet about 6 months before the dot.com collapse some "expert" ((financial rocket scientist)) predicted the market would go through 4,000 because the "market paradigm" had changed.

My point? Stand back, look at the big picture, trust your long view, realize that in general we are run by the wisdom of crowds (and that crowds elected GWB.)

Personally I'm convinced that I can not predict the short term future with any accuracy. Yet I am pretty sure that things are winding down, we are not investing sufficiently in the future, and we are breeding ourselves to death. Take the long view. I find that tough to do because I want to rush out and "fix" things. But I can't. Very frustrating and against my upbringing. Ditto my wife. Sigh.

Wasn't Casandra considered a fool?

[sittinguy]

Villiage Idiot, I do agree, the fat cats will NEVER let TSHTF.Inflation will continue and the middle class will fall,, slowly. But there could be some ups and downs. And I don't feel I have wasted my time preparing to be somewhat self sustaining for a short period of time. If anything I hope it would teach my kids they have to depend on themselves, and expect the unexpected. Being able to stay at home seems like a good plan for many possible outcomes of the future.

[Revi]

We really are looking foolish now. Oil is down to $88.70 again!

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

[Pops]

Foolish? I feel pretty happy about it.

To be perfectly honest I would have shit four years ago had you told me oil would already be over $80. One more day in paradise is after all, one more day.

And I don’t feel even a little foolish to have done the things I have done, again I’m pretty self-satisfied – even surprised at the success of our efforts.

Then again, Live for today because tomorrow we die isn’t my style.

[Revi]

I agree with you, Pops. I think the reason we did a lot of the things we've done had to do with peak oil, but they are working out so well, it seems like a very good move whatever happens. Having a source of heat and maple syrup is a great thing. We started doing things that seem like a very wise move now. The price of oil may correct a bit, but we are going to keep doing things to cut our fossil fuel use. Like this:

http://www.msad54.org/sahs/appliedarts/ ... /index.htm

[evilgenius]

I don't call it normal that the oil market has taken until nearly December to cycle back pricewise the way that it normally does much earlier in the fall. Frankly, it was just wishful thinking that we would go from a normal unabbreviated cycle to a full-on continuous runup in prices. It is logical to expect at least a strange shortened cycle in between. Who knows what the spring holds in store both for the American driver and the third world dangling from its string.

[Revi]

I think it means something is going to happen in the front month that they use to quote oil prices. Is it February now? Are we going to be using a lot less oil then? Whatever's happening it's a big correction, around $10. It's to be expected. It's somebody's buying opportunity soon. $90 oil is still a lot more than earlier this year. Wasn't oil at around $50 or something in January? It's been a wierd ride.

[RedStateGreen]

Yeah, I think the downturn in crude oil prices is profit taking for the most part. We aren't anywhere out of the woods yet.

But even if the Energy Fairy comes and blesses us with oil, and all the other problems magically go away, I'm happy with the things I've done so far. I have no regrets.