[Graeme]

The Energy Bulletin staff made the these comments about the following article:

One of the better articles criticizing peak oil theory, although I think most of its objections have been answered.

Interestingly, the article starts out by saying that the idea of peak oil is self-evident. Thus we we have passed into the last stage a truth reaching acceptance. According to a widely disseminated quote (sometimes attributed to Schopenhauer):
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second, it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."

The Peak Oil Theory by Robert Mabro

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he statement that the production of crude oil, an exhaustible resource, will reach a peak will not be entirely a tautology if it also told us something about the production pattern over time; something that is not necessarily implied in the exhaustibility concept. The peak story tells us, indeed, that after rising over years, decades or centuries, production will enter a phase of decline. The peak could take different shapes however. It could appear as the apex of an acute angle, or stretch out over a long period in the form of a plateau, or emerge more than once in the shape of a saddle or as a chain of dunes.

One major reason for their propensity to bring forward the dreaded event seems to be an eschatological inclination. Consciously or sub-consciously they are inclined to predict the end of a world economy that was fuelled by cheap oil over several decades. They also want to catch the headlines. For these reasons they need to predict an early peak. To tell us, for example, that oil production will peak in 2030 and oil resources be fully exhausted by 2080 would have little impact. The prediction has to be about an imminent event.

Exhaustibility is not a problem if there is time available to develop substitutes, and for technological progress to proceed further and delay the peak outcome. There is no doubt that the adjustments to scarcer and scarcer (which means more and more expensive) oil will occur. The critical question, once again, is ‘when?’ Once again one should emphasise that time is of the essence. The gestation lags of R&D and energy investments are long, sometime very long indeed. And investors – be it private companies or public sector entities – are increasingly slow in their responses because the future is always perceived as uncertain.

The peak oil theory, as defined above, has a harmful impact because it focuses on the wrong problem and in doing so it shifts attention away from more vital issues.

There is no ‘physical’ problem in the long run. There are, however, investment problems on the transition path from the oil to the ‘other liquids’ era. The ride is likely to be bumpy. And what we need to worry about now, and seek solutions to, are the investment and technical progress issues. Governments of OECD countries and private energy companies are not yet addressing these problems, worrying instead about the imminence of peak oil (a falsely alarming issue) for the security of energy supplies (a grossly misunderstood concept) and climate change (the most important about which the most significant polluters are unwilling to tackle.)

Re-focusing the debate away from the peak oil paranoia and towards the need to invest in the production of liquid fuels at the right time will put us on the road to a solution.

[Nano]

Re-focusing the debate away from the peak oil paranoia and towards the need to invest in the production of liquid fuels at the right time will put us on the road to a solution.

Well obviously.

The reason for my personal 'peak oil paranoia' is not the fact that peak oil will occur, but rather that it will remain impossible to predict with certainty when it will occur. Peak oil will be recognised only in hindsight. Therefore, it will be totally impossible to make the necessary investments for change in a timely manner.

In other words: we will have to adjust to the ramifications of Peak Oil during the very time when those ramifications are already upon us. And they might force us to enact solutions very different from the many options that we will have had pre-peak, due to the sharp decrease in surplus energy availability.

Post-peak government policy might very well involve increased international aggression and reduced civil liberties, instead of the support of expensive long-term sustainable development.

How is the state going to support long term investment when unemployment is at an all-time record high and rising? The voters will demand immediate support, creating a downward spiral into chaos and poverty, and eventually the rise of totalitarian neo-communist and/or -fascist regimes.

That is what scares me about peak oil.

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

The key word in all of this is production. Peak Oil is a peak in production, the act of extracting oil from the ground. There's still plenty of oil. It is just not humanly possible to get to it. Geophysical contraints are placed on what we can get to and Hubbert's Peak takes over. All the investment in the world won't overcome Hubbert's Peak.

And they know it.

[Aaron]

If peak oil is a theory, it's on the level of the theory of gravity.

No serious claims have been made disputing peak oil per se... only when it will occur is in dispute.

The USGS & others also predict a production peak... just decades later than ASPO et al.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'I')f peak oil is a theory, it's on the level of the theory of gravity.

No serious claims have been made disputing peak oil per se... only when it will occur is in dispute.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'I')f peak oil is a theory, it's on the level of the theory of gravity.

No serious claims have been made disputing peak oil per se... only when it will occur is in dispute.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')e-focusing the debate

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'I')f peak oil is a theory, it's on the level of the theory of gravity.

No serious claims have been made disputing peak oil per se... only when it will occur is in dispute.

[Poordogabone]

"minor lifestyle adjustments"
Maybe not.
Horses Pushed as Transport options

[Nano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')t's not going to be bad. Aside from some minor lifestyle adjustments, the world will smoothly shift to alternatives. And the economy will be stimulated, not depressed, due to the huge amount of retrofitting and construction work.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')t's not going to be bad. Aside from some minor lifestyle adjustments, the world will smoothly shift to alternatives. And the economy will be stimulated, not depressed, due to the huge amount of retrofitting and construction work.

[dukey]

it's a good thing u can run tractors on batteries too
oh wait
never mind

[VinceG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'I')f peak oil is a theory, it's on the level of the theory of gravity.

No serious claims have been made disputing peak oil per se... only when it will occur is in dispute.

[Sys1]

VinceG,

What the point to argue about the pessimistic viewpoint/peak oil theory now? Sorry, but we are in very deep S*** and beeing optimistic about PO is like saying 10 minutes before the Titanic sank :
"Everything is fine! Look! The lights are still on!"

We are supposed to act as a giant to save what can be saved, "we" meaning mankind, but instead we debate on the internet about a "theory" (nevertheless as strong as life leads to death) while our brilliant politics speak growth on mass media.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow can you have a serious discussion with people about a highly relevant subject like peak-oil when they enter the debate with such nagative bias?

[Ludi]

How many of us are in the process of making those minor adjustments to our lifestyles?


Have you made them? What are they?

[vision-master]

I have to admit, many of the Peaker's act like those Bible thumping fanatics...................

The sky is falling!

The end is near!

You have been warned!

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukey', 'i')t's a good thing u can run tractors on batteries too
oh wait
never mind

[venky]

I think in order to answer if the transistion is going to be painless or not, we have to look at the economic effects of continued higher oil prices and a possible decline of oil. It is a complex analysis which few people here have the capability to undertake.

However a few basic points might be as follows. There are a large number of jobs in the US in particular directly tied to the automobile industry and related services. According to Monte Quest it is 1/6th of all jobs in the US; a figure I tend to question. But we might be looking at a scenario where millions of people will find their jobs vanishing.

Also, rising oil prices ripple through the economy causing cutbacks in budgets in all sectors and a lot of layoffs. The loss of purchasing power of so many people will at the very least cause a serious economic recession.

In order for a painless transistion to occur we have to show that the net addition of jobs and economic activity from the work in transistion to alternatives will offset the loss from the causes above. One must also consider whether the scenario of a serious recession would be the time where investors might consider alternative energy projects to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars; which is what would be required.

My gut feeling is that some countries in Europe might be able to achieve such a transistion seamlessly while the US might undergo a period of hurt.

I think most third world countries would suffer terribly as they will be priced out of the oil market and would lack the resources to transistion by themselves to an economy based on alternative sources of energy.

[venky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'H')ow many of us are in the process of making those minor adjustments to our lifestyles?


Have you made them? What are they?