MAGICAL FALSE POSITIVES by Jay Hanson
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'â')€śThe human mind evolved to believe in gods... Acceptance of the supernatural conveyed a great advantage throughout prehistory, when the brain was evolving. Thus it is in sharp contrast to [science] which was developed as a product of the modern age and is not underwritten by genetic algorithms.” – E.O. Wilson
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MAGICAL FALSE POSITIVES
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MAGICAL FALSE POSITIVES
by roccman » Sat 24 Nov 2007, 16:31:42
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'â')€śMagical thinking” is defined as “non-scientific causal reasoning” or “correlation”. I define “political thinking” (which apparently has no formal definition) as trying to prove one’s assertions are true instead of trying to “falsify” them like a scientist or a good engineer.
We are genetically both “magical” and “political” thinkers. However, we can be specifically trained to use the scientific thinking in specific domains. Unfortunately, training in one domain does not mean we automatically use scientific thinking in other domains. The best scientists are just as likely as anyone else to use magic and politics in domains they haven’t been trained in.
Imagine yourself in Africa and you notice a herd of zebra staring intently at the trees. You stop and look at the trees, but you can not see anything. Suddenly a huge lion bursts out of the tree line, grabs an impala, and hauls it off. Every time after that, when you see zebras staring at trees, you will think “lions”. That is precisely the kind of magical thinking which would have kept our ancestors alive.
Political thinking co-evolved and was required to give magical thinking at least half of its value. Saving the lives of your fellows – by convincing them that a lion was nearby – was absolutely vital to your own survival. A few thousand years ago, almost no penalty would be attached to a “false positive” in this “lion in the trees” situation. Today, magical false positives on the part of social scientists are going to kill us all:
“Oil is a renewable resource, with no intrinsic value over and above its marginal cost... There is no original stock or store of wealth to be doled out on any special criterion... Capital markets are equipped to handle [oil depletion].” – M. A. Adelman
Our politicians and leaders ARE NOT capable of "solving" today's problems.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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roccman - Light Sweet Crude
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Re: MAGICAL FALSE POSITIVES
by PenultimateManStanding » Sat 24 Nov 2007, 16:54:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')Our politicians and leaders ARE NOT capable of "solving" today's problems.
Interesting post, roccman. I agree with the conclusion. But a few hundred years isn't enough time to evolve a new human mind. Magical thinking remains it, the only game in town. I think I'm going to be dusting off my Bible here real soon. While I'm at it, I'll reread Gibbon's Decline and Fall Of The Roman Empire. It's on my shelf.')Our politicians and leaders ARE NOT capable of "solving" today's problems.
Turn those Machines back On! - Don Ameche in Trading Places
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PenultimateManStanding - Expert
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Re: MAGICAL FALSE POSITIVES
by evilgenius » Sat 24 Nov 2007, 17:30:40
Good point, however, the rise of man was not soley due to the impact of cheap energy. It owes a much larger debt to genius over time. The next genius not only stands on the shoulders of giants, all of mankind stands on the shoulders of giants, only they are far less likely to admit it in a way that pays any more than lip service.
When it comes down to it, the people will always shout, "Free Barabbas." They love Barabbas. He's one of them. He has the same dreams. He does what they wish they could do. That other guy is more removed, more inscrutable. He makes them think. "Crucify him."
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