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Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby Atlantean_Relic » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 22:46:58

Typical.

Ad hominem is starting to role out.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 22:49:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Atlantean_Relic', '[')url=http://forum.spacebattles.com/showthread.php?t=126407]Typical.[/url]

Ad hominem is starting to role out.


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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby Atlantean_Relic » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 22:53:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Atlantean_Relic', '[')url=http://forum.spacebattles.com/showthread.php?t=126407]Typical.[/url]

Ad hominem is starting to role out.


Its okay, you are still loved here.


I didn't start it. The local Greenpeace/Environmentalist hater did.

Glad to see your living up to your title. But why are you going for the most post in a day?
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 22:54:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Atlantean_Relic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Atlantean_Relic', '[')url=http://forum.spacebattles.com/showthread.php?t=126407]Typical.[/url]

Ad hominem is starting to role out.


Its okay, you are still loved here.


I didn't start it. The local Greenpeace/Environmentalist hater did.

Glad to see your living up to your title. But why are you going for the most post in a day?


As villiage idiot I can't gain respect under normal channels so I must go for the absurd.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby drgoodword » Sat 24 Nov 2007, 06:31:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Atlantean_Relic', '[')url=http://forum.spacebattles.com/showthread.php?t=126407]Typical.[/url]

Ad hominem is starting to role out.


Reading through that linked thread reinforces my sense of the hopelessness of trying to explain peak oil to the masses. Firstly, people, in general, have a very poor knowledge of history. The lessons from the late 70's oil crisis and other economic crises are lost on them (one of the posters in that thread said, with what I take to be a straight face, that the great depression "wasn't so bad"). Secondly, few people seem to understand the role of oil in our contemporary industrial world. If you don't understand that oil is more than just what makes cars go, you won't be very impressed with the implications of peak oil, even if you can understand the basic concept behind it.

The "optimists," there as well as here, always, it seems to me, fall on two key issues: scalability and EROEI. Few people here will argue that there are no substitutes for oil as an energy source. The big questions are whether these alternatives can provide enough energy and how quickly can we build them. Time and again, when a hard analysis is done, every alternative falls very short of sufficiently replacing the energy role of oil.

Other than complete misanthropes and nihilists, no one can say anything good about peal oil. The only small drop of satisfaction, amidst a torrent of pain and suffering, will be the shell-shocked pollyannas finally admitting that peak oil really is a big problem after all.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby Alcassin » Sat 24 Nov 2007, 07:53:41

I love that kind of arguing 'money will solve the problem' like there is possibility to bribe machines to run without energy.

It must be energetically viable, and people around who konws some of this problem do not recognize that every major technological revolution was about using more energy.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby Dezakin » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 04:59:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drgoodword', 'T')he "optimists," there as well as here, always, it seems to me, fall on two key issues: scalability and EROEI.

Nuclear demonstrably scales in a large way (80% of france's electrical supply) and also demonstrably has very positve energy return for millenia to come.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby Twilight » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 12:28:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'N')uclear demonstrably scales in a large way (80% of france's electrical supply) and also demonstrably has very positve energy return for millenia to come.

Yes, it's just a case of getting off one's ass and doing it. I am impatient, for years all we have had is talk.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 12:36:15

Try mentioning peak oil on a motorcycle enthusiast board. You will be treated like an Argentine ant in a red ant nest.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby Barbara » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 15:42:09

Can't believe Sci-Fi fans don't grasp peak oil.
What kind of Sci-Fi are they into, Space Invaders?
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby Atlantean_Relic » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 17:27:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', 'C')an't believe Sci-Fi fans don't grasp peak oil.
What kind of Sci-Fi are they into, Space Invaders?
:roll:


Then you'll love their solution to Overpopulation.

Their Solution. Second post.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby Dezakin » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 19:07:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Atlantean_Relic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', 'C')an't believe Sci-Fi fans don't grasp peak oil.
What kind of Sci-Fi are they into, Space Invaders?
:roll:


Then you'll love their solution to Overpopulation.

Their Solution. Second post.

Oh whatever. Overpopulation is certainly a problem when you're overpopulated, tautologically obvious. Whats not in the least bit obvious is that we're anywhere close to the population limit for humanity now.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby PrairieMule » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 19:33:03

I think some of those posts are fine examples of the awful power of make believe.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby mekrob » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 21:18:45

PO is good for something: getting rid of dumb-fucks like these. (Too harsh? So is reality.)
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby Stratovarius » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 22:24:27

An actual quote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')verpopulation really never was a serious issue. The Earth can easily carry and sustain twice the population we have now, but that of course would not be feasible within the narrow "environmentally friendly" framework, whatever that is this week.


Yes, the Earth can easily sustain 13+ billion people.

:)

There are many other funny ones as well.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby Revi » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 23:01:37

Yes, this seems to be the common man't thinking. It's the fault of the Greenies. I heard Blakely on the McLaughlin Group say some of the same things tonight.

"If the environmentalists would just let us drill there would be lots of oil. The shale oil, the tar sands, etc. Get rid of the enviros and we don't have to conserve anything"

Good luck. Keep driving your Lincoln Navigators. We're just the messengers. If you really have a problem, take it up with God. He's the one who didn't provide limitless supplies of this oil goo.

It's going to be a tough time when Joe Sixpack realizes what we've known for years. They may try to blame it on the greenies, but they will know eventually that it's nobody's fault but their own.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby Dezakin » Mon 26 Nov 2007, 04:41:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')e's the one who didn't provide limitless supplies of this oil goo.

However there is an essentially limitless supply of uranium...
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby JohnDenver » Mon 26 Nov 2007, 05:29:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'Y')es, this seems to be the common man't thinking. It's the fault of the Greenies. I heard Blakely on the McLaughlin Group say some of the same things tonight.

"If the environmentalists would just let us drill there would be lots of oil. The shale oil, the tar sands, etc. Get rid of the enviros and we don't have to conserve anything"


The peak oilers deserve a share of the blame here.

After all, you guys are the ones pumping out the message that we're all going to die without oil. So when the message gets through to Joe Sixpack, the logic is straightforward:

1) We're running low on oil.
2) Without oil we'll die.

Therefore,

3) It's drill or die. We must drill ANWR, the continental shelf, nuke the tarsands etc. Screw the environment. There's no other option. Without oil we'll die.

The petroleum industry is going to string up the peak oil greenies with their own talking points, and this has been plainly obvious for years. Way to go peak oilers.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')ood luck. Keep driving your Lincoln Navigators.


Oh yeah, like the people that populate this forum aren't themselves a bunch of gas hogs. Yup, it's those people over there, with the hummers and the navigators, they're the problem.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby drgoodword » Mon 26 Nov 2007, 05:29:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')e's the one who didn't provide limitless supplies of this oil goo.

However there is an essentially limitless supply of uranium...


At the current level of uranium consumption (67,000 tonnes per year) known uranium resources (2.8 million tonnes of uranium) would last 42 years – a fact highlighted by the European Commission in their Energy Green Paper [EC 2001]. The known and estimated resources plus secondary resources (such as the military inventory), a total of around 4.8 million tonnes, would last 72 years. Of course this assumes that nuclear continues to provide just a fraction of the world's energy supply. If capacity were increased six-fold then 72 years would reduce to 12 years. This is because nuclear energy, in terms of global energy supply, must increase by a factor of four to eight to make any significant difference to the use of fossil fuels around the globe. Consequently the expected lifetime of the uranium resource would fall by a similar factor.

Source

As for your earlier comment, when I say "scalability," I mean both magnitude and speed. Nuclear plants take years to build. Even with an emergency-level amount of red-tape cutting and resource committment, the nuclear option would still leave a multi-year energy gap, and then, as the above citation shows, would provide perhaps a decade or two of replacement-level power before going into a permanent uranium shortage decline.
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Re: Here is a Sci-Fi board I go to opinion on Peak Oil.

Unread postby Dezakin » Mon 26 Nov 2007, 17:42:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drgoodword', '[')i]The known and estimated resources plus secondary resources (such as the military inventory), a total of around 4.8 million tonnes, would last 72 years. Of course this assumes that nuclear continues to provide just a fraction of the world's energy supply. If capacity were increased six-fold then 72 years would reduce to 12 years. This is because nuclear energy, in terms of global energy supply, must increase by a factor of four to eight to make any significant difference to the use of fossil fuels around the globe. Consequently the expected lifetime of the uranium resource would fall by a similar factor.

This source doesn't know what they're talking about and mixes terms in the wrong way. They're correctly citing reserves from the IAEA redbook, not resources, which is from mines open today minable for less than USD 130 per kg, which is silly when the spot price today is over twice that and uranium is less than 1% of the cost of nuclear electricity. Doubly silly when you consider uranium exploration hasn't been done since the 50's.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s for your earlier comment, when I say "scalability," I mean both magnitude and speed. Nuclear plants take years to build. Even with an emergency-level amount of red-tape cutting and resource committment, the nuclear option would still leave a multi-year energy gap, and then, as the above citation shows, would provide perhaps a decade or two of replacement-level power before going into a permanent uranium shortage decline.

France went from nothing to 80% in two decades, and we still have plenty of coal, if for nothing else than building nuclear reactors. Uranium doesn't deplete the way oil does. For every halfing of the ore grade the resources are 10x as large. In shale and phosphate based ores, at 10-20 ppm, the energy return from uranium mining in light water reactors is about 15-30, and there are over 1 trillion tons of uranium avaliable in these ores which would last some 250000 years if you had 200000 light water reactors.

With molten salt breeder reactors, you use 1 ton of fertile fuel (U238 or Th233) per GW/year, and theres 160 trillion tons of this in the crust that can be mined at huge energy returns. That lasts 16 million years if you burn it as fast as possible without substantially increasing the global temperature from the waste heat of the reactors.

We aren't going to run out of energy, and we aren't going to run out of nuclear fuel.
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