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"at the earliest 10 years away from a peak."

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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"at the earliest 10 years away from a peak."

Unread postby KevO » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 05:43:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou're still a skeptic on the peak-oil theory?

I'm not a skeptic on the fact that ultimately, production of oil and gas will peak and will go down. I'm a decided skeptic on the notion that we're close to that. This is one of those things you have in energy markets, certainly, and in gold, certainly where you have people who are believers. And they'll get an idea like Hubbert's peak in their heads and then any evidence which is against it, they'll throw out and any evidence which supports it, they are in favour of it.

Cambridge Energy Research just published another field-by-field analysis globally, where they're still making the point that production is going to keep increasing, and you're probably at the earliest 10 years away from a peak.


so CER say we are going to keep increasing!?

ho hum

read full article HERE
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Re: "at the earliest 10 years away from a peak."

Unread postby mkwin » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 06:45:11

A hypothetical peak might be 10 years away but with all the other problems: investment restrictions (Venezuela, Mexico, and other NOC's), infrastructure requirements (Lack of rigs etc), and geo-political problems (Iraq and Nigeria) effective peak could happen far sooner if indeed it has not already happened.
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Re: "at the earliest 10 years away from a peak."

Unread postby DantesPeak » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 10:54:13

From the article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, we were wrong.


If my memory is correct, they have also published a number of other articles as to why the price of oil was too high. All wrong, of course.

If they, or any one else, have proof that speculators have a significant effect on oil prices or that new oil field production is about to suddenly overcome the depletion as high as 8% in the older fields (that Simmons says is happening), please let us know.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: "at the earliest 10 years away from a peak."

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 13:03:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'F')rom the article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, we were wrong.


If my memory is correct, they have also published a number of other articles as to why the price of oil was too high. All wrong, of course.

If they, or any one else, have proof that speculators have a significant effect on oil prices or that new oil field production is about to suddenly overcome the depletion as high as 8% in the older fields (that Simmons says is happening), please let us know.

You are right.
It is pointless to take CERA and several other bundles of experts seriously.
They have made so many false predictions in the past.
Even at the beginning of this year CERA was claiming that we will get "undulating plateau" after 30 years of growth at the earliest.

Anyway CERA is of very limitded (if any) value to their corporate paymasters.
On the other hand they may have two versions of forecast.
First for general public and those who pay standard fee and second for those willing to pay millions to learn detailed truth.
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Re: "at the earliest 10 years away from a peak."

Unread postby kokoda » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 13:04:45

We will know soon enough.

Two years of flat oil production so far. Either they are going to have to ramp up production soon ... or admit that their is no excess production.
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Re: "at the earliest 10 years away from a peak."

Unread postby jeezlouise » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 13:36:49

(For those who haven't seen it)
All you need to know about CERA:
Image

Saw Daniel "I-would-have-been-fired-years-ago-in-any-other-job" Yergin just a couple of days ago on CNBC... remind me why he keeps getting airtime as an "expert"?... oh yeah... LAZY JOURNALISTS.
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Re: "at the earliest 10 years away from a peak."

Unread postby DantesPeak » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 13:55:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jeezlouise', '
')Saw Daniel "I-would-have-been-fired-years-ago-in-any-other-job" Yergin just a couple of days ago on CNBC... remind me why he keeps getting airtime as an "expert"?... oh yeah... LAZY JOURNALISTS.


I am not sure about this, but Yergin may have some type of contract with CNBC and NBC - which means that he will frequently appear with his comments.

He has educational degrees in English and International Relations, and he has been a teaching professor.

I'm also not sure how he became an oil industry consultant when he doesn't appear to have any actual experinece in the energy industry that I know about.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: "at the earliest 10 years away from a peak."

Unread postby Twilight » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 14:59:39

Yergin's record on oil predictions can be worse than that of a group of amateurs on the internet because he is paid and we are not. That is what allows him to be wrong, yet wealthy and respected. Payment.
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Re: "at the earliest 10 years away from a peak."

Unread postby americandream » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 16:45:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'F')rom the article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, we were wrong.


If my memory is correct, they have also published a number of other articles as to why the price of oil was too high. All wrong, of course.

If they, or any one else, have proof that speculators have a significant effect on oil prices or that new oil field production is about to suddenly overcome the depletion as high as 8% in the older fields (that Simmons says is happening), please let us know.

You are right.
It is pointless to take CERA and several other bundles of experts seriously.
They have made so many false predictions in the past.
Even at the beginning of this year CERA was claiming that we will get "undulating plateau" after 30 years of growth at the earliest.

Anyway CERA is of very limitded (if any) value to their corporate paymasters.
On the other hand they may have two versions of forecast.
First for general public and those who pay standard fee and second for those willing to pay millions to learn detailed truth.


Absolutely! We have absolutely no idea what the elite know and want us to know. If geo-political machinations are anything to go by, it's probably not unreasonable to suspect that a good deal is being witheld from the masses.
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