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why peak oil has no effect on oil prices

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why peak oil has no effect on oil prices

Unread postby peak » Tue 20 Nov 2007, 22:12:07

hahaha look at this article :P

"why peak oil has no effect on oil prices" http://www.moneyweek.com/file/14649/why ... rices.html
people pay money to read this - remember back during the dotcom boom the finance media said "buy buy buy"? you can look at other's research but you should always do your own research...

EDIT: here is another article -- you have to pay them money to read the rest of it.
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/36774/wha ... n-oil.html
higher oil prices because of the turks and colder weather - thats their explanation why oil has been booming for the past few years.

this is so pathetic, if you were an oil company then why wouldn't you sell a ton of 1k barrel oil contracts on nymex to drag the price down? Gas consumption in the U.S. is higher than ever even with these high oil prices.
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Re: why peak oil has no effect on oil prices

Unread postby Ardalla » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 03:08:19

I was thinking it had a strange tone to it, then I noticed it mentioned oil at $60-70. So the article is a year and half old.

In spite of the dismisal of PO, he makes some valid points about the difficulty of oil extraction in oil sand and shale formations. He tries to sound folksy which is just annoying to me. When people make claims like PO is decades away I need to hear valid reasons ... not just "because it's obvious POers are just a bunch of crackpots".
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Re: why peak oil has no effect on oil prices

Unread postby mlit » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 04:11:53

Like saying 'Why Diahrea has no effect on how many times I use the toilet.'

Sure some of the times I run to the toilet I'm just imagining I really have to go, but I know eventually I will. (sorry I'm dipping into the vodka stockpile tonight)
An Optimist is eventually wrong, A Pessimist is eventually right.
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Re: why peak oil has no effect on oil prices

Unread postby mkwin » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 06:46:20

The article does not dismiss peak oil. In fact it basically says the non-conventional will not save us. It just does not think Peak Oil will occur for another 5 years and we are experincing peak-Lite now, which I would agree with.

MoneyWeek are a very good magazine. They are often talking about peak Oil and its implication and have had many articles on Peak Oil supporting it's theory and quoting Campbell et el.

They are also bullish on gold/silver and oil and hate property and banks etc.

I would recommend it to everyone as they provide great stock tips such as gold and silver miners, uranium/nuclear, oil and other energy stocks.
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Re: why peak oil has no effect on oil prices

Unread postby The_Setite » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 10:06:44

[quote="peak"]hahaha look at this article :P

"why peak oil has no effect on oil prices"

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/14649/why ... rices.html


people pay money to read this - remember back during the dotcom boom the finance media said "buy buy buy"?

you can look at other's research but you should always do your own research...

their explanation why oil has been booming for the past few years.

this is so pathetic, if you were an oil company then why wouldn't you sell a ton of 1k barrel oil contracts on nymex to drag the price down?


You need top read the article again carefully this time. He is saying that peak oil is an economic issue, not a resource depletion issue. Which is the case. The 6 pump gas station trying to serve 1000 cars is an excellent analogy. There is a LOT of oil out there. The problem is that it cant be extracted fast enough to satisfy demand. A totally different scenario from the oft touted "resource depletion" hubbert curve.
Peak oil is an economic and infrastructure problem. Not a resource depletion problem. The problem is lack of cheap oil, not lack of oil.
Either way, we need to be weaned off.
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Re: why peak oil has no effect on oil prices

Unread postby roccman » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 10:21:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Setite', '
')Peak oil is an economic and infrastructure problem. Not a resource depletion problem. The problem is lack of cheap oil, not lack of oil.
Either way, we need to be weaned off.


Setite - I would encourage you to read past posts here and at a few other PO sites before you go posting this type of disinformation.

1) the low hanging fruit is gone

2) there is no "weaning" without a great amount of pain.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: why peak oil has no effect on oil prices

Unread postby The_Setite » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 11:18:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Setite', '
')Peak oil is an economic and infrastructure problem. Not a resource depletion problem. The problem is lack of cheap oil, not lack of oil.
Either way, we need to be weaned off.


Setite - I would encourage you to read past posts here and at a few other PO sites before you go posting this type of disinformation.

1) the low hanging fruit is gone

2) there is no "weaning" without a great amount of pain.


Disinformation?
You just agreed with me......what is your point exactly?

What i have just said is true. Period. The problem is not lack of oil its lack of cheap oil. I never said it wasnt a problem. But it is "true". If someone figures out how to effectively extract from tar sands at speed then the problem is solved. QED. Might happen, might not....

Yes the low hanging fruit is gone....thanks for pointing out the obvious.

Maybe it will be painful, maybe it wont...all i can read here is speculation (like the two "facts" you have presented me with. Point 1) i agree with and is probably true. Point 2) is pure speculation. You have no way of knowing)
. Some of it is very good, some is insane ranting.
But you dont know what will happen. Neither do i. Predictions are always innacurate. Look at Stuart Stanifords latest gaffe re. KSA depletion.

And i see a lot of poeple making money from the "we're all gonna die" scenario. The truth gets lost in all those dollar signs...

And i see you accusing me of presenting disinformation (which as i have shown is not the case). I am guessing that you dont like it cos i havent embraced the whole doom thing head on. I think you also need to read the original article and think about it for a few minutes. I happen to think the guy is spot on. I just dont rush to "end of the world" conclusions because of this....
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Re: why peak oil has no effect on oil prices

Unread postby Falconoffury » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 11:24:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem is lack of cheap oil, not lack of oil.


Unrecoverable oil is not relevant to peak oil. I will agree with that. Peak oil is a production issue. Production is affected by current technology, infrastructure, cost, and reserves. Lack of reserves is not the main problem, but it is one of them. Look for some graphs showing the relationship of oil discoveries compared to production. Production has gone up in the face of declining discovery for at least 50 years.

It is irrelevant whether the problem is caused more by lack of oil reserves or lack of cheap oil because those factors are already closely linked. For whatever combination of reasons, we have reached the peak of oil production.
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Re: why peak oil has no effect on oil prices

Unread postby The_Setite » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 11:28:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem is lack of cheap oil, not lack of oil.


Unrecoverable oil is not relevant to peak oil. I will agree with that. Peak oil is a production issue. Production is affected by current technology, infrastructure, cost, and reserves. Lack of reserves is not the main problem, but it is one of them. Look for some graphs showing the relationship of oil discoveries compared to production. Production has gone up in the face of declining discovery for at least 50 years.

It is irrelevant whether the problem is caused more by lack of oil reserves or lack of cheap oil because those factors are already closely linked. For whatever combination of reasons, we have reached the peak of oil production.



Or i could look at reserve growth figures vs consumption. The problem is extraction rates, not reserves.
Btw, how do you know we have peaked?? Are you talking light sweet or all liquids??
All i see is a plateau. Not a peak. We dont know yet....
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Re: why peak oil has no effect on oil prices

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 12:30:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mlit', 'L')ike saying 'Why Diahrea has no effect on how many times I use the toilet.'

Sure some of the times I run to the toilet I'm just imagining I really have to go, but I know eventually I will. (sorry I'm dipping into the vodka stockpile tonight)


:lol:

Well, we've gotten two excellent analogies out of this.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Setite', 'B')ut you dont know what will happen. Neither do i. Predictions are always innacurate. Look at Stuart Stanifords latest gaffe re. KSA depletion.


And read Stuart's riposte while you're at it: Is the Decline of Base Production Accelerating? He's a bit more rigorous and informed than JD, who isn't any more reliable for getting an honest assessment of the situation than those you refer to giving forth "insane ranting" on this board.
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Re: why peak oil has no effect on oil prices

Unread postby The_Setite » Thu 22 Nov 2007, 12:25:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mlit', 'L')ike saying 'Why Diahrea has no effect on how many times I use the toilet.'

Sure some of the times I run to the toilet I'm just imagining I really have to go, but I know eventually I will. (sorry I'm dipping into the vodka stockpile tonight)


:lol:

Well, we've gotten two excellent analogies out of this.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Setite', 'B')ut you dont know what will happen. Neither do i. Predictions are always innacurate. Look at Stuart Stanifords latest gaffe re. KSA depletion.


And read Stuart's riposte while you're at it: Is the Decline of Base Production Accelerating? He's a bit more rigorous and informed than JD, who isn't any more reliable for getting an honest assessment of the situation than those you refer to giving forth "insane ranting" on this board.



http://www.trendlines.ca/ksa.htm

Actually i was referrencing Hutter......the most reliable and balanced imho.
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Re: why peak oil has no effect on oil prices

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Thu 22 Nov 2007, 13:09:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Setite', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mlit', 'L')ike saying 'Why Diahrea has no effect on how many times I use the toilet.'

Sure some of the times I run to the toilet I'm just imagining I really have to go, but I know eventually I will. (sorry I'm dipping into the vodka stockpile tonight)


:lol:

Well, we've gotten two excellent analogies out of this.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Setite', 'B')ut you dont know what will happen. Neither do i. Predictions are always innacurate. Look at Stuart Stanifords latest gaffe re. KSA depletion.


And read Stuart's riposte while you're at it: Is the Decline of Base Production Accelerating? He's a bit more rigorous and informed than JD, who isn't any more reliable for getting an honest assessment of the situation than those you refer to giving forth "insane ranting" on this board.



http://www.trendlines.ca/ksa.htm

Actually i was referrencing Hutter......the most reliable and balanced imho.


Nothing else matters as to the definition of Peak Oil or it's causes except what we can witness with our own eyes. Out here in the real world, oil supply depletion is tightening its deathgrip on civilization. Petty disagreements such as demonstrated in this thread as to how we got (or are getting) here are irrelevant.

The facts on the ground are obvious. PO is here. The_Setite, YOU don't know either and your Hutter (whoever he is) reference, if he is correct, matters not until KSA actually lives up to their own forecasts (according to the link you provided for Hutter). So far, they promised an extra 500,000 bpd they have not delivered on. They were urged to announce an increase in their October meeting and instead assisted further in the devaluation of the Dollar, costing themselves millions in revenue.

Also, The_Setite, you yourself agree that we have a problem. Arguing what the cause is, especially YOUR argument, does nothing to encourage mitigation of the problem. You are saying there is plenty of oil. Oh, well, ok then. Let's just all fill up our SUVs with gas and go for a ride in the countryside.

The bottom line is, despite the definition or cause of Peak Oil, if we can't get to the oil, we're fucked. And it's the "fucked" part that engages this conversation in the first place. I'm sure we can all agree that no matter which side of the PO issue you come down on, we're all still going down with the ship together.
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