Businessweek is running an article on how $100 oil could help spur investment in alternative energies. It makes some interesting points, such as how the private sector is achieving more results the the government.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnf ... 632522.htm
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How $100 oil could help
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Re: How $100 oil could help
by Sys1 » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 07:25:59
When oil was at 9$ a barrel, it was easy to invest in alternative energy (well, easier, should i say), but nobody cared.
Now that it reaches almost 100$ a barrel, investing will become harder and harder, as banker won't be able to lend as much as before, and this article suppose it will be the opposite...
Actually, alternative energies look to me derivative energies from oil.
100$ oil will help conserve a bit. And i'm not even sure about that...
Now that it reaches almost 100$ a barrel, investing will become harder and harder, as banker won't be able to lend as much as before, and this article suppose it will be the opposite...
Actually, alternative energies look to me derivative energies from oil.
100$ oil will help conserve a bit. And i'm not even sure about that...
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Re: How $100 oil could help
by mkwin » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 09:18:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'W')hen oil was at 9$ a barrel, it was easy to invest in alternative energy (well, easier, should i say), but nobody cared.
Now that it reaches almost 100$ a barrel, investing will become harder and harder, as banker won't be able to lend as much as before, and this article suppose it will be the opposite...
Actually, alternative energies look to me derivative energies from oil.
100$ oil will help conserve a bit. And i'm not even sure about that...
Now that it reaches almost 100$ a barrel, investing will become harder and harder, as banker won't be able to lend as much as before, and this article suppose it will be the opposite...
Actually, alternative energies look to me derivative energies from oil.
100$ oil will help conserve a bit. And i'm not even sure about that...
Investment in alternative energy does not become harder with oil at it current high it becomes far easier.
Most alternative energy was not cost competitive when oil was $9 a barrel now it looks highly profitable in an oil constrained world with ever increasing demand. Investment in alternative energy is growing rapidly and it doesn't come from 'bankers'.
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Re: How $100 oil could help
by Sys1 » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 13:42:46
"Most alternative energy was not cost competitive when oil was $9 a barrel now it looks highly profitable..."
Did you read what you post? Replace alternative energy in the quote with "oil shale", "tar sands" or "coal to liquid", and you will have some very old BS already debunked here...
With this way of thinking, I'm sure that when oil will reach 10'000$ a barrel, it will be cost competitive to burn bank-note to heat your home.
Did you read what you post? Replace alternative energy in the quote with "oil shale", "tar sands" or "coal to liquid", and you will have some very old BS already debunked here...
With this way of thinking, I'm sure that when oil will reach 10'000$ a barrel, it will be cost competitive to burn bank-note to heat your home.
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Re: How $100 oil could help
by kublikhan » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 17:24:50
Umm, I would call "Oil Shale" and "Tar Sands" unconventional oil. When I think alternative energy, I'm thinking solar, wind, tidal, etc. Surely you are not arguing these have been debunked, or are not economical at $10,000 a barrel oil?
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: How $100 oil could help
by Tyler_JC » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 17:47:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'U')mm, I would call "Oil Shale" and "Tar Sands" unconventional oil. When I think alternative energy, I'm thinking solar, wind, tidal, etc. Surely you are not arguing these have been debunked, or are not economical at $10,000 a barrel oil?
The previous poster is merely parroting back the argument that oil prices are 100% correlated to energy production prices as a whole.
This is obviously not the case.
The cost of producing a wind turbine has not increased by 600% in the past 10 years like oil has.
In fact, wind turbines are far more efficient and more technologically advanced than they were in 1997.
Demand for the turbines themselves has pushed up prices for the turbines, which has lead many to believe that oil prices are pushing up the costs of production.
I would challenge that assumption and say that oil as a % of the cost of wind turbine is in the single digits.
Meaning, a 500% increase in oil prices leads to a less than 50% increase in the cost of wind turbines.
Eventually the cost of using oil as your energy source as opposed to wind will make wind the better investment.
The Market will respond by encouraging investment in wind turbine factories, etc.
The only problem is that the level at which wind cost = oil cost may be in the $100+ per barrel range. The global economy is already being driven off the tracks by $80 oil (anything higher than that hasn't filtered into the global economy yet)
It will be a very bumpy ride as the true cost of $100 oil filters into the equation.
Higher oil prices ALWAYS spur investment in alternative sources, especially if oil prices stay at high levels for extended periods of time. The worst thing that could happen right now would be a major drop in the price of oil that could put companies like First Solar out of business.
(the actual percentages themselves are merely estimates but the concept is accurate, IMO)
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Re: How $100 oil could help
by MD » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 18:33:06
It's a simple formula, really:
Just add the infrastructure investment and annual maintenance cost (in both currency and energy) per produced Btu of the source material and compare it to other source supplies. Oil is currently in the process of losing the lead. It looks like there will be a basket of winners this time instead of a single source.
What's different moving ahead:
You need to give greater weight to energy-flows in your financial planning.
whoops...groceries are here...more later.
later: That's it, really. There's your leverage to the future. Other than you'd best step lively; the boat's leaving the dock.
Just add the infrastructure investment and annual maintenance cost (in both currency and energy) per produced Btu of the source material and compare it to other source supplies. Oil is currently in the process of losing the lead. It looks like there will be a basket of winners this time instead of a single source.
What's different moving ahead:
You need to give greater weight to energy-flows in your financial planning.
whoops...groceries are here...more later.
later: That's it, really. There's your leverage to the future. Other than you'd best step lively; the boat's leaving the dock.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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