[Bas]

If the inventory report shows a relatively big drop (a drop seems to be expected) , tomorrow we'll hit $100. Anyone taking bets?

[funzone36]

Sample:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $98 a barrel in New York to a record close after the U.S. dollar declined to a new low against the euro.

``As the dollar falls, U.S. refiners need to bid more to compete with overseas consumers,'' said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``Investors look at crude oil as an inflation hedge. The weaker dollar also cushions the effect of higher oil prices in other countries so demand doesn't take the hit you might expect.''

The dollar dropped on speculation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates a third time this year, which prompted investors to buy energy and metals futures. Royal Dutch Shell Plc reported a fire at an oil-sands crude production plant in Alberta, potentially cutting shipments to U.S. refineries.

Crude oil for January delivery rose $3.39, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $98.03 a barrel at 2:45 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the highest close since trading began in 1983. Futures touched $98.62, matching the intraday record reached on Nov. 7.

Brent crude oil for January settlement rose $3.21, or 3.5 percent, to close at a record $95.49 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent reached $95.75 a barrel on today, the highest since trading began in 1988. ``There's an assumption the Fed will run to the rescue and cut rates,'' said Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. ``An unintended result of the rate cuts has been oil approaching $100.''

Saudi Arabian officials rejected a suggestion by Iran and Venezuela to discuss ending the practice of pricing crude in dollars at an Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, last weekend.

Worthless Paper

``They get our oil and give us a worthless piece of paper,'' said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Nov. 18 in Riyadh. ``The dollar has no economic value.''

The dollar touched $1.482 per euro today, the lowest since the 13-nation currency was started in 1999. In U.S. dollars, West Texas Intermediate, the New York-traded crude-oil benchmark, is up 61 percent so far this year. Oil is up 43 percent in euros, 52 percent in British pounds and 48 percent in yen.

``The only thing that will deter buyers is a surprise in tomorrow's inventory report,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. ``The dollar is boosting prices today. Talk that OPEC might ditch the dollar doesn't help and neither does speculation that the Fed may lower rates even further.''

U.S. Inventories

An Energy Department report tomorrow is expected to show that U.S. crude-oil inventories rose 750,000 barrels last week, according to the median of 16 responses from analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline stockpiles climbed and supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, fell, according to the survey.

There will be no floor trading in New York on Nov. 22 because of the Thanksgiving holiday.

``I think we are seeing an over-reaction to the drop last week,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. ``There's nervousness about the dollar and inventories. I wouldn't take this too seriously because volume is down on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving.''

Prices dropped 1.3 percent last week, only the second weekly decline since August. Crude oil fell more than $3 on Nov. 13 when December options expired.

[dissident]

"An Energy Department report tomorrow is expected to show that U.S. crude-oil inventories rose 750,000 barrels last week"

So expect the oil price to drop since the market is driven by such "important" indicators.

[billp]

Unfortunate possible events could push the price of oil much higher?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ran has sufficient quantities of cruise missiles to destroy much or all of the Fifth Fleet which is within range of Iran's mobile missile launchers strategically located along its mountainous terrain overlooking the Persian Gulf. The Bush administration is deliberately downplaying the vulnerability of the Fifth Fleet to Iran's advanced missile technology which has been purchased from Russia and China since the late 1990's. The most sophisticated of Iran's cruise missiles are the 'Sunburn' and 'Yakhonts'. These are missiles against which U.S. military experts conclude modern warships have no effective defence. By deliberately provoking an Iranian retaliation to U.S. military actions, the neoconservatives will knowingly sacrifice much or all of the Fifth Fleet. This will culminate in a new Pearl Harbor that will create the right political environment for total war against Iran, and expanded military actions in the Persian Gulf region.

[WhatMeWorry]

BASTARDS

[funzone36]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billp', 'U')nfortunate possible events could push the price of oil much higher?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ran has sufficient quantities of cruise missiles to destroy much or all of the Fifth Fleet which is within range of Iran's mobile missile launchers strategically located along its mountainous terrain overlooking the Persian Gulf. The Bush administration is deliberately downplaying the vulnerability of the Fifth Fleet to Iran's advanced missile technology which has been purchased from Russia and China since the late 1990's. The most sophisticated of Iran's cruise missiles are the 'Sunburn' and 'Yakhonts'. These are missiles against which U.S. military experts conclude modern warships have no effective defence. By deliberately provoking an Iranian retaliation to U.S. military actions, the neoconservatives will knowingly sacrifice much or all of the Fifth Fleet. This will culminate in a new Pearl Harbor that will create the right political environment for total war against Iran, and expanded military actions in the Persian Gulf region.

[RdSnt]

Indeed, like the overwhelm success the US had with killing off Sadams scud launchers. Right?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('funzone36', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billp', 'U')nfortunate possible events could push the price of oil much higher?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ran has sufficient quantities of cruise missiles to destroy much or all of the Fifth Fleet which is within range of Iran's mobile missile launchers strategically located along its mountainous terrain overlooking the Persian Gulf. The Bush administration is deliberately downplaying the vulnerability of the Fifth Fleet to Iran's advanced missile technology which has been purchased from Russia and China since the late 1990's. The most sophisticated of Iran's cruise missiles are the 'Sunburn' and 'Yakhonts'. These are missiles against which U.S. military experts conclude modern warships have no effective defence. By deliberately provoking an Iranian retaliation to U.S. military actions, the neoconservatives will knowingly sacrifice much or all of the Fifth Fleet. This will culminate in a new Pearl Harbor that will create the right political environment for total war against Iran, and expanded military actions in the Persian Gulf region.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('funzone36', 'A')merica can just use their F-22s to destroy their launching platforms.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a') drop seems to be expected

[Denny]

What is the real significance of a 750,000 barrel increase in inventory over one week?

Seems trivial in a country that uses about 20 million per day. If I drive for a living and average 20 gallons of gas used a day, and at the end of the week, I find that my tank is 3/4 of a gallon over the week before, what cheer does that give me? Seems just like some random variation. Hardly measurable.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'W')hat is the real significance of a 750,000 barrel increase in inventory over one week?

Seems trivial in a country that uses about 20 million per day. If I drive for a living and average 20 gallons of gas used a day, and at the end of the week, I find that my tank is 3/4 of a gallon over the week before, what cheer does that give me? Seems just like some random variation. Hardly measurable.

[ChefBoyardee]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'I')f the inventory report shows a relatively big drop (a drop seems to be expected) , tomorrow we'll hit $100. Anyone taking bets?

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ChefBoyardee', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'I')f the inventory report shows a relatively big drop (a drop seems to be expected) , tomorrow we'll hit $100. Anyone taking bets?

[Geko45]

I think it will have more to do with whether the dollar moves up or down tomorrow. If the dollar goes down and the inventory report shows a draw then we will break $100 tomorrow. If either of these don't happen then it doesn't look likely to me. The dollar was down hard today, so I would expect it to rebound slightly tomorrow, but anything is possible.

On a different note, I did the following price projection for the NYMEX front month crude contract over a year and a half ago. At the time I was ridiculed for my "hockey sticks" prediction. They don't seem so far fetched now. Still, not quite as fast as I expected, but we are certainly between my middle and best case. Close enough for me to feel somewhat justified.

Click image for larger version.

[billp]

Who are the$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ASTARDS?

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billp', 'W')ho are the$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ASTARDS?

[billp]

Hey bas.

Public key crypto may have been broken in about 1991-2? Without factoring.

public key problems?

NSA started pulling public key from its implementations at this time.

Regards

[whereagles]

geko, your prices pic hasn't been updated in like 4 months. Given the recent raises, I'd say we're going the red (pessimistic) curve.

Weak $ has a bit to do with if, but ok that's life.

[Geko45]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whereagles', 'g')eko, your prices pic hasn't been updated in like 4 months. Given the recent raises, I'd say we're going the red (pessimistic) curve.

[funzone36]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('funzone36', 'A')merica can just use their F-22s to destroy their launching platforms.