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WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby DantesPeak » Mon 19 Nov 2007, 09:26:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Waterthrush', 'W')ell, the CNBC folks briskly disposed of the WSJ report 10 minutes into their 6 am Squawk Box show - Peter Buetel, oil "expert", immediately pointed to the Brazil oilfield as proof that there's much more oil out there to find.

According to Buetel, the problem is OPEC - they're not giving us enough of our oil ... I heard this kind of entitlement thinking on Bloomberg last week as well. I heard the commentator there actually refer to "our oil" when speaking of Iran and Venezuala.

The financial media simply cannot really comprehend what the implications of peak oil are. Even when they are mouthing the words about peak oil, their minds are telling them "everything will continue the way it is."


While I didn't see/hear the above comments by Beutel, it sounds almost exactly the same as his other recent comments. See the Peter Beutel Thread.

Beutel seems to have a major problem getting the facts even close to being right. Total OPEC production now is not far below its eak reached in 2006: OPEC oil report, see page 31.
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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby Carlhole » Mon 19 Nov 2007, 09:37:39

The WSJ article is not a peak oil article; it's an undulating plateau article.

And it implies that the US energy supplies are threatened by foreign governments. It would seem to be a good rationale for permanently stationing troops in Iraq!
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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby h20 » Mon 19 Nov 2007, 09:49:54

The more I see of society's response to peaking oil, the more I am reminded of Neville. The depth of denial is infuriating.

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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby roccman » Mon 19 Nov 2007, 10:40:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'T')he WSJ article is not a peak oil article; it's an undulating plateau article.

And it implies that the US energy supplies are threatened by foreign governments. It would seem to be a good rationale for permanently stationing troops in Iraq!



$500 oil will be blammed on the "terrorists".

The die off will be attributed to biblical "prophets".

Can it be any other way?
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby mididoctors » Mon 19 Nov 2007, 11:17:27

A sustained plateau is a interesting idea.. what happens one day the oil just stops when it is all used up.

I am also getting a bit peeved off with various experts trying to co-opt the data and or PO in general as thou they were on the case to start with.

there is a muddled conflation. Goldman sachs are given as a example of a group who saw this coming despite saying they do not believe in "magical inflexion curves" in that super spike report.. which was wrong anyway oil went back down after they dropped all their stock.

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WSJ reports on peak oil

Unread postby whatpeak » Mon 19 Nov 2007, 12:58:45

{thread merged by emersonbiggins}

Peak oil mentioned in this morning's Wall Street Journal

Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production

Though they never say how Peak Oil theorists were proved wrong so often. Whatever.
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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby h20 » Mon 19 Nov 2007, 19:09:01

Follow the conversation on this article
http://blogs.wsj.com/energy/2007/11/19/ ... t-to-peak/
Last edited by h20 on Mon 19 Nov 2007, 19:29:49, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby h20 » Mon 19 Nov 2007, 19:09:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whatpeak', 'T')hough they never say how Peak Oil theorists were proved wrong so often. Whatever.


I guess they are referring to Hubbert's 1995 estimate for world peak. But I also think that it's become fashionable to diss peak oil whenever mentioning it, just to establish that you are not a kook or catastrophist.

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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby DantesPeak » Mon 19 Nov 2007, 19:56:29

The Wall Street Journal did respond to my question (and h20 is right about the source of their comment):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')----- Original Message -----
From: Gold, Russell
To: DantesPeak
Cc: Davis, Ann
Sent: Monday, November 19, 2007 12:07 PM
Subject: RE: Peak Oil

Dear Mr. Peak:

Thank you for getting in touch about the “Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production” article in this morning’s Wall Street Journal.

You asked about the sentence: “They've been proved wrong so often that their theory has become debased.”

We were referring to the numerous times in the past when peak oil theorists have predicted a specific date the peak will occur and decline begin. For instance, in a 1991 book, Colin Campbell predicted world oil production would peak around 1995.

My co-author and I were referring to this history of predicting peaks when we wrote the sentence.

Thanks again for bringing this to our attention.

Rgds,

Russell




Russell Gold

The Wall Street Journal

Eml: russell.gold@wsj.com



note: I gave them my real name, but I am not showing it above.

I am not very much satisfied with the answer, and although their answer seems to come straight from Yergin, I thank them for responding.
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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby oowolf » Mon 19 Nov 2007, 20:30:42

So Campbell is just full of shit and not actually the world's foremost petroleum geologist, and the rest of us "outsiders" are thoroughly debased.
Check out the Lahart article on page C1 comparing the mortgage mess and impending credit implosion to the "Y2K" hysteria.
Typical corporate media newspeak; i.e.: Whoopee, weak dollar means we can sell more Boeing "Dreamliners"!
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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Mon 19 Nov 2007, 20:35:28

Peak or plateau in supply, they haven't even addressed demand. They act like global demand is going to stay flat, when it is in fact increasing exponentially.

*sigh*
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby Aaron » Tue 20 Nov 2007, 12:23:47

You folks are brutal... & very very smart.

Great Thread(s).
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 20 Nov 2007, 12:55:22

Why does any of this surprise any of us in here anymore? Ive been saying for at least a year that denial and the fear associated with this knowledge is going to paralyze any action destined to do anything which might mitigate the effects of PO.

None of this is surprising to me. The "all is well, nothing to see here, move along" crowd is going to drown out the PO alarmists until its to late.

IMHO we've already missed the bus.
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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 20 Nov 2007, 13:24:04

Right now, there is a 600 foot (200 meter) wave you may call PO is about to crash on the shore, but the WSJ and others have so far only stated there is a storm brewing. I have increasingly been getting that unpleasant gut feeling that events are about to overwhelm even most of us here who think they can see what’s coming.
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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 20 Nov 2007, 13:42:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')he peak oil issue is starting to percolate up into the mainstream. Obviously the US press is going to be the last to take it seriously, but it seems to be exploding now in the UK. Because the UK being an english language country, americans are going to read a lot of it via Google News. It will eventually bleed into the US press.

I think next year is the year that everyone starts to talk about it around the water cooler. That's assuming oil passes $100/bl and gas prices spike even more. I just don't see how it can be swept under the rug much longer.


Why can't it be swept under the rug much longer? We've swept it under the rug as oil has gone from $15 a barrel to $95 and gas has gone from $1.25 a gallon to over $3.00. If this kind of price inflation doesn't get people's attention, I don't know what will.

When you have invested enough in a certain world view, sometimes there is NO SET OF FACTS which will pull you off of your chosen view of things. Not unlike Baghdad Bob, though perhaps more subtle.

I have learned there is little praise for being right early about something that portends doom for many. In fact, many who were right early wind up somehow being blamed for the eventual problems, as if seeing it early somehow caused it to occur.

If you want a somewhat analogous situation to the current mainstream PO resistance, think about Galileo (and others) fighting the church on scientific matters. EVENTUALLY, the scientific truths were accepted, but there were lots of pioneers who suffered greatly for seeing that church dogma did not begin to explain all there was to know about the universe.

Modern industrial capitalism is really a religion that worships cheap energy as its deity. The reason I say that cheap energy is treated as a deity is that industrial capitalism presupposes that cheap energy is infinite and an entitlement. How can unlimited cheap energy be possible in a world of finite resources, unless there is something supernatural about it? Sounds silly, but isn't this fantasy one of the core assumptions on which the modern world is based? Delivering the PO message to this mindset is like telling a child there is no Santa Claus--it is perceived as being mean spirited, even if it is true.

Note, too, that there are few who would benefit from the PO story going mainstream, thus there are fewer promoters motivated by greed to push it forward.

Modern industrial society is the frog in the pan of water, slowly heating up.
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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Tue 20 Nov 2007, 22:56:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'N')ot unlike Baghdad Bob


That made me laugh out loud. :lol:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby h20 » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 03:49:25

CERA's Daniel Yergin:

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The Infamous Baghdad Bob:

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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 08:14:19

Image

Lots more like that out there.

Did someone link to the WSJ blog? Peak, Plateau — What’s the Difference? Comments section. Part of the URL is "to-peak-or-not-to-peak." That is the question! tale-told-by-an-idiot coming soon, I imagine.
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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby h20 » Thu 22 Nov 2007, 04:06:50

Talking about Danny "Baghdad Bob" Yergin, I hear he's starting to get worried:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FT.com', '')Until recently, there has been less concern about oil in the $90s than there was when it was $60 or $70. But it is obvious that oil at $100 is going to have much more impact than oil at $70,” said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates


Full article http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8d1227be-9868 ... fd2ac.html
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Re: WSJ, Page 1 [Nov 19] - Oil Production Peaking!

Unread postby h20 » Thu 22 Nov 2007, 04:06:50

Talking about Danny "Baghdad Bob" Yergin, I hear he's starting to get worried:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FT.com', '')Until recently, there has been less concern about oil in the $90s than there was when it was $60 or $70. But it is obvious that oil at $100 is going to have much more impact than oil at $70,” said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates


Full article here: Threat of $100 crude raises global alarml
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