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When will oil peak?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

When Will oil peak?

Next 3 years
19
No votes
Next 5-10 years
8
No votes
Next 10-30 years
1
No votes
 
Total votes : 28

When will oil peak?

Unread postby Cyrus » Sat 29 Jan 2005, 22:14:16

Im not sure if this is already stated but....
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Unread postby Jack » Sat 29 Jan 2005, 22:39:23

Actually, I suspect your poll is overly optimistic. I wouldn't be surprised if we peak this year... 8)
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Unread postby Cyrus » Sat 29 Jan 2005, 23:38:40

Oh sorry! I meant to type "1-3" years not just "3". I am also thinking that oil will peak around thanksgiving this year.
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Oil peak will likely be a bumpy plateau, not a true peak.

Unread postby Guest » Sat 29 Jan 2005, 23:54:09

Few experts expect it to be a clean, smooth single "peak." It will most likely be a series of ups and downs as demand drops due to shocks caused by economic dips and bumps, and recession and/or depression.

That the world has actually passed the "highest" peak of oil production will probably not be known for sure until several years after it occurs.

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Hey, who logged me out??

Unread postby Dvanharn » Sat 29 Jan 2005, 23:58:48

Somebody ate my cookie, my last post showed me as Guest!!

(Guess I clicked on the wrong button in Firefox last time I cleaned my browser out!!)

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Unread postby 0mar » Sun 30 Jan 2005, 01:55:45

I'd say 2008, as the number of megaprojects (>=100,000 bpd) dwindles to almost nothing. They are the real drivers in the oil supply side of the equation.

From what I've seen, oil producers can handle demand until about 2008-2012, depending on who's estimating. After that, very few producers think that demand will be lower than supply.
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"It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
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Re: Oil peak will likely be a bumpy plateau, not a true peak

Unread postby K9P » Sun 30 Jan 2005, 07:52:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', '
')That the world has actually passed the "highest" peak of oil production will probably not be known for sure until several years after it occurs.

Dave


Agreed. Saudi secrecy guarrantees our ignorance until it's too late. See open discussions on Saudis last year where all this was covered.
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Unread postby tmazanec1 » Sun 30 Jan 2005, 11:51:23

I would say about 4 years...where do I vote (I picked the first option).
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