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Speculating On Renminbi

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Speculating On Renminbi

Unread postby mattduke » Mon 12 Nov 2007, 12:59:40

What are the options available to me as an American for owning Renminbi? I would like to own Renminbi-denominated government bonds and possibly corporates too. I would also consider Renminbi-denominated interest-bearing bank accounts. Everbank accounts do not pay interest. Would a Forex broker have options to help me? Do I need to open a bank account? I would appreciate help from anyone knowledgeable in this area. Thank you for helping!
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Re: Speculating On Renminbi

Unread postby TheTurtle » Mon 12 Nov 2007, 14:16:59

Although I have about 500 yuan laying in my dresser drawer from my last trip to China and it is currently worth more than I paid for it, I'm not really convinced that renminbi is that great an investment. I suspect that the Chinese economy is pretty much walking hand-in-hand with the US economy and when one collapses the other will follow along.

Just my opinion, of course. I know nothing of investment strategies.
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Re: Speculating On Renminbi

Unread postby Bas » Mon 12 Nov 2007, 17:02:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheTurtle', 'A')lthough I have about 500 yuan laying in my dresser drawer from my last trip to China and it is currently worth more than I paid for it, I'm not really convinced that renminbi is that great an investment. I suspect that the Chinese economy is pretty much walking hand-in-hand with the US economy and when one collapses the other will follow along.

Just my opinion, of course. I know nothing of investment strategies.


On the other hand, Europe imports slightly more from China in terms of $$$ than the US does. Also the motor of growth in China is no longer their exports but the internal market.
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Re: Speculating On Renminbi

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 13 Nov 2007, 11:28:07

The Chinese still have capital controls, so with a few exceptions there is very little you could buy in terms of assets even if you had Renminbi.

Bonds and local shares are only for domestic investors. Most foreign direct investment is through a joint venture with a local partner that then either steals your technology, syphons off the profits or both.

If you enter the Chinese shares listed on the HK market you pay multiples over domestic shares that are already over-valued and trading at 50+ P/E ratios.

Isn't it convenient that the Chinese export both manufactured goods and capital, but foreign investors are not allowed to invest in China? And some wonder why we have global imblances, eh?

The best proxy investments are to buy the shares of German and Swiss manufacturers, and other companies that sell directly to China, so that they benefit from a strong euro and healthy Chinese re-exports back into the EU as well as strong domestic capital spending on infrastructure in China.

Otherwise you can get yourself a well-educated Chinese girlfrend who you can 'trust' to invest on your behalf? ; - )
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Re: Speculating On Renminbi

Unread postby mattduke » Tue 13 Nov 2007, 12:53:47

Thanks for the help Mr Bill. I have my heart set on the currency itself as opposed to shares at this point. I have owned shares but have sold them off as I think they are experiencing a bubble over there. Do you know if it possible in a typical consumer forex account to own Renminbi on margin?
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Re: Speculating On Renminbi

Unread postby lapulapu » Tue 13 Nov 2007, 17:54:49

Mattduke: you might be out of luck. You have to be in Hong Kong. Maybe HSBC Private Banking can help, but you have to have their minminal net worth before they let you in the club. I know an American that brought condos (Chinese govt approved for foreign investment condos) before the RE run up so he's benefitted from both holding a RMB asset and paying the mortgage with USD AND RE appreciation.

Try opening a HKD account with HSBC. HKD should follow the RMB since it's "1 country 2 system" now part of China.

Like Mr. Bill was trying to get you to do: what is the endgame that you're trying to achieve by holding RMB that you cannot replicate otherwise?
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Re: Speculating On Renminbi

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 14 Nov 2007, 07:26:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mattduke', 'T')hanks for the help Mr Bill. I have my heart set on the currency itself as opposed to shares at this point. I have owned shares but have sold them off as I think they are experiencing a bubble over there. Do you know if it possible in a typical consumer forex account to own Renminbi on margin?


Capital controls make it hard, especially for the individual investor that does not have access to interbank MM & FX markets or the credit to enter into NDFs or swaps with banks that have.

But you can synthetically re-produce a USD/CNY forward contract that replicates holding CNY and earning interest using either CME futures or options.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the world's largest and most diverse financial exchange, said yesterday it plans to list new futures contracts and options on renminbi against the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen.


Source: CME RMB Contract

First the definition of a forward foreign exchange contract, so everyone is on the same page.

SPOT USD/CNY x Interest Rate Differential between USD & CNY = Forward USD/CNY rate *

So it is the same as selling USD while receiving CNY.

Short USD = Long CNY

* I have grossly symplified that, but if you want the actual formula here it is ...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The relationship between spot and forward is as follows:

where:

F = forward
S = spot
rT = interest rate of the term currency (CNY)
rB = interest rate of the base currency (USD)
T = tenor (calculated according to the appropriate day count convention)

The forward points or swap points are quoted as the difference between forward and spot, F - S, and is expressed as the following:

where rT and rB are small. Thus, the absolute value of the swap points increases when the interest rate differential gets larger, and vice versa.

Source: Forex swap

So if you buy the long-dated CNY contract outright - on margin naturally - you are automatically picking-up any CNY gains, but paying away the CNY interest rate carry.

Or alternatively, you can buy short-dated CNY contract outright - on margin as well - and automatically pick-up any CNY gains, plus you will earn the carry.** However, you have roll-over risks from the nearest futures contract to the next nearest futures contract as you roll your CNY long forward.

** because CNY rates are higher than USD interest rates

You can also benefit from CNY appreciation by buying the CNY option, although then this becomes a timing issue. You will be paying away time value, and facing the prospect that most speculators are on the same side of the trade as you, so they will not be cheap. Therefore, you might buy out of the money (OTM) CNY calls while selling even farther OTM calls or writing in OTM CNY puts to help offset some of that cost of premium.

These are all contracts for differences or non-deliverable forwards (NDFs), so at maturity they will be settled in USD not CNY.

That may not help you, but I thought I would mention it just the same in case someone is interested? Cheers.
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