[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')on't panic is excellent advice in most times of crisis, though not if you're an investor, in which case the trick is to panic 48 hours before everybody else does. If the peak oil crisis is upon us, then not panicking is the right response. It can be a quite gentle crisis if handled properly, but it will be a nightmare if governments and markets panic.

The surge in the price of oil is not driven by a conviction that supplies have peaked and can only decline from now on. Dealers in the London and New York exchanges who make the market react to the daily flow of news -- a possible Turkish invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan, two North Sea rigs closed for a week because of bad weather -- don't bother much about longer-term issues, such as peak oil.

The market is simple-minded............

[Eli]

Where is the guy getting info?

He says when we do peak we will have a 2% decline rate?

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'W')here is the guy getting info?

He says when we do peak we will have a 2% decline rate?

[Bas]

We have nothing to fear but fear itself (but sell your stocks now before it's too late ; )

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'W')e have nothing to fear but fear itself (but sell your stocks now before it's too late ; )

[Starvid]

The IEA says that the global natural decline rate is 8 % and that new investments in old fields (workovers and suchlike) is reducing it to 3,7 %.

That's the amount (85*0,037=3,2 mbpd) of new production we need every year just to stay flat. Then demand is growing at about 1 mbdp every year, on top of that.

So we need about 4,2 mbpd of brand new production from new fields, every year. One Saudi Arabia's worth of production (not reserves though) every 24 months...

edit: Uh.... My point being...

Buy oil?

[MD]

Re: "Oil outlook is grim, but [s]panic[/s] hoarding worst response "

And that's what's up next. On a global scale.

[venky]

Is $100 oil the highest for this current cycle or could we see lower prices this spring?

[Eli]

We could see a huge sell off over the short term due to the collapse of the equities market and credit collapse.

The conventional wisdom will be to sell oil because the demand is going to be reduced.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')he IEA says that the global natural decline rate is 8 % and that new investments in old fields (workovers and suchlike) is reducing it to 3,7 %.

That's the amount (85*0,037=3,2 mbpd) of new production we need every year just to stay flat. Then demand is growing at about 1 mbdp every year, on top of that.

So we need about 4,2 mbpd of brand new production from new fields, every year. One Saudi Arabia's worth of production (not reserves though) every 24 months...

edit: Uh.... My point being...

Buy oil?

[RonMN]

Do you think there will ever be a time where "they" say "it's time to panic"???

Quote:
If the peak oil crisis is upon us, then not panicking is the right response. It can be a quite gentle crisis if handled properly,

So say the zombie hoards ready to kick your door in...I say buy more ammo!

"All is well...All is well!...DON'T panic!"

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')he IEA says that the global natural decline rate is 8 % and that new investments in old fields (workovers and suchlike) is reducing it to 3,7 %.

That's the amount (85*0,037=3,2 mbpd) of new production we need every year just to stay flat. Then demand is growing at about 1 mbdp every year, on top of that.

So we need about 4,2 mbpd of brand new production from new fields, every year. One Saudi Arabia's worth of production (not reserves though) every 24 months...

edit: Uh.... My point being...

Buy oil?

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'W')e could see a huge sell off over the short term due to the collapse of the equities market and credit collapse.

The conventional wisdom will be to sell oil because the demand is going to be reduced.

[Eli]

yes, yes it is.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')he IEA says that the global natural decline rate is 8 % and that new investments in old fields (workovers and suchlike) is reducing it to 3,7 %.

That's the amount (85*0,037=3,2 mbpd) of new production we need every year just to stay flat. Then demand is growing at about 1 mbdp every year, on top of that.

So we need about 4,2 mbpd of brand new production from new fields, every year. One Saudi Arabia's worth of production (not reserves though) every 24 months...

edit: Uh.... My point being...

Buy oil?

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'S')o it's not that hard to add a Saudi Arabia's worth of oil. We did it 3 times in the last 4 years, by your own accounting.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')he IEA says that the global natural decline rate is 8 % and that new investments in old fields (workovers and suchlike) is reducing it to 3,7 %.

That's the amount (85*0,037=3,2 mbpd) of new production we need every year just to stay flat. Then demand is growing at about 1 mbdp every year, on top of that.

So we need about 4,2 mbpd of brand new production from new fields, every year. One Saudi Arabia's worth of production (not reserves though) every 24 months...

edit: Uh.... My point being...

Buy oil?

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'S')o it's not that hard to add a Saudi Arabia's worth of oil. We did it 3 times in the last 4 years, by your own accounting.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')I don't really understand what you are saying here.

As far as I know, production is not declining. We have been on a plateau for a few years, barring some rounding errors.

Without new projects (only workover of old projects) we have a decline 0f 3,7 % according to the IEA. With new projects we have a decline rate of about 0 %.

Going forward, I think we will see a negative decline rate, that is, growing production. And then a peak in 5-10 years at 90-95 mbpd.

edit: If investment will be forthcoming, something which is not at all assured.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'G')oing forward, I think we will see a negative decline rate, that is, growing production. And then a peak in 5-10 years at 90-95 mbpd.