Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby roccman » Wed 07 Nov 2007, 10:55:43

Hey Pops...

I think more than your nasty socks are unraveling today...

What say you?

Or is this all a non - event.

BTW today - 1 oz gold for your farm and equipment...yesterday was 2...tomorrow will be 1/2.

Bring on the pain!!!
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
User avatar
roccman
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4065
Joined: Fri 27 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 07 Nov 2007, 18:56:55

Roccman and I are just razzing you, Pops. By the sounds of it you can probably withstand just about anything life throws at you. The fact that you started making plans, long ago, and beat the rush is really great. I'm thinking about people who may have some extra money that they don't want to spend on shaky tangible assets, like real estate, at the present time. It would be silly for a first time buyer to buy any kind of real estate, as prices are going to continue to drop. It would actually be best to buy and hold gold for a while, then buy that bug-out place. Even CNBC had economists on advising gold today! Gotta love it.
User avatar
threadbear
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7577
Joined: Sat 22 Jan 2005, 04:00:00

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Pops » Wed 07 Nov 2007, 19:10:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'H')ey Pops...

My grass stood up to the frost.

My stovewood burned.

My calves didn’t die.

How did your stuff do?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Pops » Wed 07 Nov 2007, 19:20:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'R')occman and I are just razzing you, Pops. By the sounds of it you can probably withstand just about anything life throws at you.

Naw, thanks for that complement though.

There are some threads about how to do things with little if one cares to look. I tried to keep them at the top but it was met with less than acclaim

If anyone takes the time to lookaround here they will find stuff.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Revi » Wed 07 Nov 2007, 19:39:08

I think that gasoline has turned into a "giffen good" and people have to keep buying it whatever the price is.

During the Irish potato famine the price of food kept going up, but there was no fall off in demand, no matter how high the price went.

So it is with gasoline. We'll keep using the stuff no matter how high the price goes. Even if it bankrupts us.

That's what's going on. It's unravelling because we can't change our ways and use less.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 05:33:12

Excellent link, Revi! This brings something new to the argument. Thanks. MrBill
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby seahorse » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 09:32:38

Yes Revi, as was also predicted in the documentary "The End of Suburbia."
User avatar
seahorse
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2275
Joined: Fri 15 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Arkansas

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Revi » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 09:41:30

I have a lot of colleagues who drive big vehicles. They are beginning to complain about the price of gas. It costs them a lot to fill up, and they feel that they can't trade their cars because they'll take a beating on the trade in. They are stuck in houses that are too big for them as well.

They'll be hurting this winter from gas prices and the price of heating oil. The cost of food has risen dramatically as well.

The squeeze is on for the middle class. We're caught in the vise.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Bas » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 09:46:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think that gasoline has turned into a "giffen good" and people have to keep buying it whatever the price is.

During the Irish potato famine the price of food kept going up, but there was no fall off in demand, no matter how high the price went.

So it is with gasoline. We'll keep using the stuff no matter how high the price goes. Even if it bankrupts us.

That's what's going on. It's unravelling because we can't change our ways and use less.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good


excellent; I haven't heard the mention of Giffen on this forum before and I had actually forgotten about the concept!

I don't think it applies though; it might be more of a case for potatoes; as the price of potatoes will go up in the future we will actually eat more of them. (though that won't be the result of the potatoe price effect alone)
Bas
 

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Gerontion » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 09:59:40

I’m no economist and this is reaching back to high school lessons but petrol isn’t an inferior good so can’t be considered a giffen good. Rather, it’s a normal good with a highly inelastic demand curve.
User avatar
Gerontion
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 28
Joined: Fri 16 Feb 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Lampang, Thailand

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby whereagles » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 11:16:36

Geron, you're missing the point. A good doesn't need to be of inferior quality to be giffen. The idea is that if gasoline becomes more expensive, then you'll have less money to tune up your car and you'll end up consuming MORE gasoline after all.

Gasoline stops being giffen only if you stop having money to buy it.
User avatar
whereagles
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 586
Joined: Wed 17 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Portugal

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 12:33:25

Just to clarify petroleum as a Giffen good it would be my understanding that we are talking about a percent of disposable income that goes to buying gasoline that increases as prices rise at the expense of other discretionary spending that has to fall.

This might preclude buying a new car that might be more efficient and save money in the long-run or as you mentioned having it even tuned up so that it uses less gasoline at the moment.

I just do not want anyone thinking that this means people would burn more gasoline in volume terms, but specifically as a rising percentage of disposable income. Right?
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Duende » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 15:31:37

Pulled from the article referenced earlier in the thread:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to Claudia Coulton, co-director of the Centre for Urban Poverty at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, over 10,000 families - one in eight of all owner occupiers in Cleveland - will face eviction this year - and the number is expected to rise.


Wow. Speaking as someone who grew up there, I can tell you that Cleveland is a real "canary in the mineshaff" sort of city, which is really sad in light of some of the gains made during the '90's out there. :(

Revi wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think that gasoline has turned into a "giffen good" and people have to keep buying it whatever the price is.


Yes, I've been thinking this very thing for a long time - though Giffen goods usually carry a different connotation. As MrBill indicates, as long as it's understood that it doesn't mean burning more gas in terms of volume, but accounting for a higher proportion of spending.
"Where is the man who has so much as to be out of danger?" -Thomas Huxley
User avatar
Duende
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 418
Joined: Sat 27 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: The District
Top

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby bodigami » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 16:39:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '(')...)
I just bought 20 shares of FPL, since they're the lowest carbon electricity producers in the US. People will still need to keep the lights on for a few years, whatever happens. I'll sell before 2012, since that's when the Olduvai Gorge starts to open up, and the lights start to go out, according to Duncan.
(...)


2012 seams to be a very interesting year...
the end of a galactical cycle in which our Solar System will be aligned with the middle (not to be confused with the center) of the Milky Way.
the end of the long count of the mayan calendar.
the end of Kali Yuga.
the moment when human population goes beyond 7 000 000 000.
and now, the moment when everyone realizes we're past Peak Oil.

neat, karma at its finest :twisted:
bodigami
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 1921
Joined: Wed 26 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Revi » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 17:05:11

Yes the Mayans predict that it will be the end, and the beginning of a new cycle. Duncan predicts that it's the beginning of the Olduvai event and some others have predicted other milestones in 2012. I didn't know that we'll welcome baby 7 billion too. 2012 should be quite a year.

Meanwhile Evergreen Solar is finally going up! I might be able to retire after all. It languished for a year and a half.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ESLR

I figure that the next economy isn't about oil. Right now it seems like the only game in town, but solar is coming up from way behind.

2012 may also be the year that the big switch to renewables begins in earnest.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby GreyGhost » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 17:30:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whereagles', 'T')he idea is that if gasoline becomes more expensive, then you'll have less money to tune up your car and you'll end up consuming MORE gasoline after all.

Yes that makes sense. Or, on a larger scale, if we have less energy available for activities like building nuclear reactors (which are "discretionary" compared to, say, eating), so we don't build them and end up needing to consume more fossil fuels. That's an example of a positive feedback effect that would lead to accelerating collapse.
User avatar
GreyGhost
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 108
Joined: Wed 31 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby roccman » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 18:10:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '(')...)
I just bought 20 shares of FPL, since they're the lowest carbon electricity producers in the US. People will still need to keep the lights on for a few years, whatever happens. I'll sell before 2012, since that's when the Olduvai Gorge starts to open up, and the lights start to go out, according to Duncan.
(...)


2012 seams to be a very interesting year...
the end of a galactical cycle in which our Solar System will be aligned with the middle (not to be confused with the center) of the Milky Way.
the end of the long count of the mayan calendar.
the end of Kali Yuga.
the moment when human population goes beyond 7 000 000 000.
and now, the moment when everyone realizes we're past Peak Oil.

neat, karma at its finest :twisted:


Yes 2012 ...

it hath been foretold...

Image
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
User avatar
roccman
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4065
Joined: Fri 27 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Top

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby ohanian » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 19:21:04

You guys are stupid
2012 is the year that
Runaway Global Warming kicks in


It has absolutely nothing to do with this Mayan Shit!!!
User avatar
ohanian
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1553
Joined: Sun 17 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Revi » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 21:09:41

2012 is also the year that the Yankees win the World Series again. We'll see about that... It does seem like the year 2012 is a big one. A lot of things are supposed to happen then. It's going to be interesting.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Kaj » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 21:29:05

The year 2012 is the UK's turn to host the Olympics, and nothing should be allowed to interfere!
Foul play by the rest of the world! Thats just poor sportsmanship on behalf of those Mayans.
User avatar
Kaj
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 373
Joined: Wed 06 Dec 2006, 04:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron