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The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Pops » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 16:34:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'H')ow is this not a worst case scenario.


‘cuz I ain’t buying, selling or borrowing?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby roccman » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 16:35:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'H')ow is this not a worst case scenario.


‘cuz I ain’t buying, selling or borrowing?


Funny

That's exactly what the banks ain't doing...

bring on the pain!!!
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Pops » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 16:52:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')It's happened, Dudes. You're just not seeing the repercussions.

Well if IT has happened and no one is seeing the repercussions then I would venture IT ain’t happened.

I know all you folks are perfectly prepared for IT, but I would suggest saying IT has happened every 10 days does little for those just coming onboard and trying to make some plans aside from running to the nearest national forest.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby roccman » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 16:59:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')It's happened, Dudes. You're just not seeing the repercussions.

Well if IT has happened and no one is seeing the repercussions then I would venture IT ain’t happened.

I know all you folks are perfectly prepared for IT, but I would suggest saying IT has happened every 10 days does little for those just coming onboard and trying to make some plans aside from running to the nearest national forest.


Same can be said for PO.

Has happened - yet J6P is just fine...today.

Same can be said for GW/GD - yet J6P is just fine...today

200 Billion write down by JPM is IT and the effects ARE happening...when was the last time you bought a gallon of milk for $2.00?

You check gold lately pops...$825 and climbing strong...alot of others seem to think IT has happened or is in the process of happening.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Pops » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 17:20:43

You miss my point.

Warning of IT happening at some point may get them moving towards the gates if your message is clear.

Saying IT is happening every 10 days (or 10 times each day) will either get a few running and caught in a fence for no reason or just the whole bunch milling and being convinced you are goofy and just a Bugger.


Sorry to use a cattle analogy...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby roccman » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 17:27:35

Well pops - us chimps require severe daily beatings across the brow to give the message a running chance.

Why pops is nothing all that out of the ordinary for you?

Do you have a pulse?

I must read 100 PO posts here everyday...I never once think to say, "not new...move along now...been there done that?...why pops would you not post to Dantes thread..."tell us something we don't know Dante?"

What gives pops - or are most all of us trolls except a few of your veteran pals here?? Would get mighty boring around here...don't cha think pops - you and 5 others stroking yourselves?
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Pops » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 18:32:10

Kind of a funny response rocc. what is your deal posting here?

It seems to me to be quite a bore listening to so many proclamations that the world will end tomorrow and we will all die and then tomorrow there is a new proclamation that we will all die.


I don’t see posts of my actions in response to PO, RE or any other bubble as anything but my experiences as too what I have done and a little opinion here and there.


I really don’t care whether anyone out there considers my experience in their plans or not though I do hope some will.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Twilight » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 19:26:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'I') recall a thread from this spring where everyone was trading gasoline storage techniques to prepare for the coming doom this summer.

Much like our flying cars and fusion, the crash is always just around the corner .

You should know that thread came with an actual model and a regularly updated range of probability. As it was, the news hunters got lots of valuable information on how the system works under stress and what the model's assumptions must be. Good luck to the US getting a European unleaded import bailout next summer. This may be off topic, but while there is much crap here, it is counterproductive to slate theories that come with an assessment of likelihood.
Last edited by Twilight on Tue 06 Nov 2007, 19:31:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby roccman » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 19:29:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')I really don’t care whether anyone out there considers my experience in their plans or not though I do hope some will.


Well pops we agree and the answer to your question.
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 20:16:23

Pops, You will be feeling the repercussions very soon in the form of crazy inflation. And that money you have in the bank? Just do the sensible thing and keep it there as it loses an average of 1% or more a week, for the next couple of months. Good on you. Tell you what, you get into grave difficulties, Roccman and I, maybe we sell a couple of oz's of our gold and buy your farm! :lol: :lol:
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Ferretlover » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 20:20:36

“Nowhere to run to, baby, nowhere to hide…”
~Martha & The Vandellas

"Whoa, thought it was a nightmare, Lo, it's all so true,
They told me, "Don't go walkin' slow 'Cause Devil's on the loose."
Better run through the jungle, Better run through the jungle,
Better run through the jungle, Whoa, Don't look back to see."
~Creedence Clearwater Revival
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby roccman » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 20:28:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'P')ops, You will be feeling the repercussions very soon in the form of crazy inflation. And that money you have in the bank? Just do the sensible thing and keep it there as it loses an average of 1% or more a week, for the next couple of months. Good on you. Tell you what, you get into grave difficulties, Roccman and I, maybe we sell a couple of oz's of our gold and buy your farm! :lol: :lol:


At the rate gold is soaring I am thinking by Friday morning 1 or 2 oz should about cover it...

Whadda say - seems like a very generous offer...this would include all farm equipment you understand pops.
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Pops » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 20:37:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'P')ops, You will be feeling the repercussions very soon in the form of crazy inflation. And that money you have in the bank? Just do the sensible thing and keep it there as it loses an average of 1% or more a week, for the next couple of months. Good on you. Tell you what, you get into grave difficulties, Roccman and I, maybe we sell a couple of oz's of our gold and buy your farm! :lol: :lol:


Actually, I have few needs for cash aside from beer, cigarettes and taxes, which I hope my few calves will cover.

I have little liquidity, anywhere.

Crazy Inflation...

Pfft.


BTW, feel free to come see me when you think bling is a thing I will trade for food or shelter.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 21:04:45

Pops grows all his needs after farming for only three-four years? That's remarkable.


Go Pops!


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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby truecougarblue » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 21:26:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')
If I were to make legislation, and I would prefer not to, but I would increase the amount of downpayment needed to qualify for Federal home insurance as well as disallow interest only or balloon mortgages.

Also I might look at some restrictions on 2nd and 3rd mortgages on Federally insured mortgages, so that equity is kept positive or increases over the life of the mortgage.


(tongue in cheek)
Mr. Bill, if I didn't know better I'd think you were suggesting that people put instant gratification aside and (GASP), save for future purchases.

Don't be bringing that anti-american Cipriot bull doo doo around here, we're all going to rush headlong into doomsday, or the soup line, as is our God given right.
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Pops » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 21:47:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'P')ops grows all his needs after farming for only three-four years?

You know better.

Naw I am no farmer, Ludi and far from what seems the lately derogatory term of self-sufficient.

I have been growing and making some things for a while though and folks around my location here have been growing and making stuff for a while too.

I grow and make a little and they do too.

That is self-sufficient.

Seems a good place, no gold buyers that I have met though..


Actually on the topic of the thread I am wearing some socks and an undershirt that has some seams unraveling…
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby Kristen » Wed 07 Nov 2007, 04:04:55

We have definetetly reached the tipping point and things will just keep getting worse. One Canadian Dollar now is $1.08. It seems like it was just yesterday when the two became even. The dollar deteriation is rapidly incteasing.

Instead of trading all of these CDO's and SIv's they might as well have been trading poodle turds. The whole logic behind selling a person's debt as money is just moronic because if a person doesn't pay you'll be left with nothing.

I think we have maybe a week or so left before we finally fall off the cliff. As I've said before your best bet it to loot the pharmacy. Valium will most likely come in handy. For all you gold lovers out there, how much would you give for medicine when it becomes scarce?
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby manu » Wed 07 Nov 2007, 04:29:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')here are actually many who believe we could 'melt-up' from here. Due to many of the same reasons you have listed. This might be seen as the flip-side to inflation (i.e. not real gains, but illusionary). Some like Jim Rogers who actively criticize the Fed and see inflation actually think that the Shanghai stock market might double (again) from current levels. Others see the credit crunch as spuring a move into 'risk free' US treasuries and so keeping long-term yields down. This makes US treasuries expensive and stocks cheaper by comparison. That would mean that US stocks might continue to rally into 2008 despite a weak US economy, especially if the Fed keeps easy (and fuelling inflation). I doubt any of those predictions will come to pass in 2007. But it is only 6-weeks to go so let's wait and see, eh?

How far will short-sighted politicians go to keep this rally going? Here is an example of your lawmakers hard at work to destroy your future. Enjoy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')itigroup Inc. and other big U.S. banks say plans by Congress Democrats to ease lending rules, aimed at avoiding mortgage foreclosures, may weaken bankruptcy laws and curtail lending, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. are opposing draft legislation that would permit bankruptcy judges to change interest rates and mortgage lengths for borrowers in bankruptcy, the Journal reported.

Banks said such changes would curtail lending and increase the borrowing costs, the Journal reported, citing Scott Talbott, the senior vice president of the Financial Services Roundtable, an industry group.

The bill, sponsored by North Carolina Democratic Representative Brad Miller and California Democratic Representative Linda Sanchez, would also allow judges to change parts of loans from secured to unsecured debt if house values dropped below mortgage amounts, making it harder for banks to recover what they'd lent, the newspaper said.

Source: Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) --


The only melt up you will see in the future is a nuclear bomb. This is the end of the world economy. It started in 2006 with the sub prime fiasco, which you called "a bump in the road". It is a 3 trillion $ bump. Get a farm, live simple, buy a cow.
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 07 Nov 2007, 05:02:08

manu wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he only melt up you will see in the future is a nuclear bomb. This is the end of the world economy. It started in 2006 with the sub prime fiasco, which you called "a bump in the road". It is a 3 trillion $ bump. Get a farm, live simple, buy a cow.


Got a farm, equipment, tools and all the help I need to run it. But I am having too much fun at the moment, so until TSHTF or my parents (mom & step-father) get too old to run things themselves I may as well be here undermining governments and second guessing central banks.

Also there is the little matter of turning the McMansion into a chicken coop, unless I can somehow tap into geothermal to keep the beast heated in the winter. For a Doomer from way back, my father was not very peak oil aware twenty years ago! ; - )
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Re: The Great Unraveling Begins - Weeks, at most away...

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 07 Nov 2007, 07:24:15

UPATE: MrBill wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')et me give you one very simple example, although completely ficticious, just to illustrate my point.

Say I am the biggest broker in the world and I have the majority of market share to underwrite all equity options. So I earn a fortune during quiet periods of time when volatility is very low. I collect nickels, but if you collect enough nickels they add up.


Well, it was supposed to be a ficticious case for illustration purposes, but now it seems truth is stranger than fiction...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')itch Ratings said on Tuesday that it may cut the AAA ratings of bond insurers after an upcoming review of their exposure to complex collateralized debt obligations.

This matters a lot, because the bond insurance companies, such as Ambac and Financial Guaranty Insurance Company, have insured a collective $2.5 trillion of bonds and structured financings.

If the ratings of one or more of the bond insurers are cut, the rating on the bonds they insure, many of which are municipal bonds, will fall too. This may force some investors who can only hold very secure debt to sell, depressing prices which would already be under pressure due to the lower value of an insurance policy from a lower rated company.

It could also touch off another round of writedowns by banks, insurance companies and others who hold instruments insured by these companies.

Source: The $2.5 trillion bond insurance problem:

... at least the timing seems awfully eery! ; - )
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