by MrBill » Wed 07 Nov 2007, 07:24:15
UPATE: MrBill wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')et me give you one very simple example, although completely ficticious, just to illustrate my point.
Say I am the biggest broker in the world and I have the majority of market share to underwrite all equity options. So I earn a fortune during quiet periods of time when volatility is very low. I collect nickels, but if you collect enough nickels they add up.
Well, it was supposed to be a ficticious case for illustration purposes, but now it seems truth is stranger than fiction...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')itch Ratings said on Tuesday that it may cut the AAA ratings of bond insurers after an upcoming review of their exposure to complex collateralized debt obligations.
This matters a lot, because the bond insurance companies, such as Ambac and Financial Guaranty Insurance Company, have insured a collective $2.5 trillion of bonds and structured financings.
If the ratings of one or more of the bond insurers are cut, the rating on the bonds they insure, many of which are municipal bonds, will fall too. This may force some investors who can only hold very secure debt to sell, depressing prices which would already be under pressure due to the lower value of an insurance policy from a lower rated company.
It could also touch off another round of writedowns by banks, insurance companies and others who hold instruments insured by these companies.
... at least the timing seems awfully eery! ; - )