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This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby Bas » Wed 31 Oct 2007, 23:27:07

And to make it even more scary, we're about 2 centimeter off the top of that chart at the moment....Image
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby Andrew_S » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 04:29:45

That graph certainly is scary. But I wonder when the effect will be seen at the gas stations. Prices where I am are still well below the highs of 2006. Strange.
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby MacG » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 06:45:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Andrew_S', 'T')hat graph certainly is scary. But I wonder when the effect will be seen at the gas stations. Prices where I am are still well below the highs of 2006. Strange.


Indeed. Could it be that someone is drawing down stockpiles? If we don't get rationing by price we will probably get outright shortages.
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby Novus » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 12:11:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'A')nd to make it even more scary, we're about 2 centimeter off the top of that chart at the moment....Image


Chart made more scary on Nov 1 so Halloween doesn't end this year.

Image
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby gnm » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 12:29:57

Good grief! Ugly when you see it laid out like that. Gotta be just speculation right? ..... RIGHT!?

[smilie=5eek.gif]

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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 16:36:08

Coool....super spike phase? Next summer could be rough at this rate.
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby joewp » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 18:37:58

Somebody here at PO.com postulated a 3-year delay from peak production to a catastrophic occurrence(e.g. US peak in 1970, gas lines in 1973). Since conventional crude oil seems to have peaked in 2005, I'd say that 2008 looks like it indeed could be rough.
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby Sys1 » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 18:49:29

joewp : Yes but they said this evening on TV that since France (i'm french) adopted the nuclear energy after the 1973 shock, oil scarcity can not hit much our economy. (It will just be annoying at the pump.)
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 19:23:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'S')omebody here at PO.com postulated a 3-year delay from peak production to a catastrophic occurrence(e.g. US peak in 1970, gas lines in 1973). Since conventional crude oil seems to have peaked in 2005, I'd say that 2008 looks like it indeed could be rough.


The 3 year lag time is completely unrelated to the current situation.


The OPEC embargo and price controls lead to gas lines.

The peak in US production was not important with regards to the gasoline availability situation.

Granted, the peak in US production meant that we couldn't increase production instantly to compensate for the loss in imported OPEC oil, but production increases have a large time lag so it wouldn't have mattered during that small blip anyway.
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby joewp » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 13:51:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'j')oewp : Yes but they said this evening on TV that since France (i'm french) adopted the nuclear energy after the 1973 shock, oil scarcity can not hit much our economy. (It will just be annoying at the pump.)


It will be even more annoying when the nuclear engineers can't buy gas to get to those plants and keep them running.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he 3 year lag time is completely unrelated to the current situation.


I'm not saying that there's a definite relationship, just that it seems to happen. We'll see by this time next year, I'm sure.
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby bodigami » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 17:23:14

...that graph is strange; between the beginning and end of 2006 there was basically no rise in price... well, maybe the Peak was '06 not '05... but at the end, those it matter? we're heading down either way.
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby Lighthouse » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 19:45:15

Not that I do not like simplified approaches but you pick one graph out of a complex system and come to assumptions and conclusions. Interesting.

Girls and boys, may I remind you that the US$ lost a bit of its value recently? Don't you this this could have an impact on the price for a barrel of the stinking black stuff we all crave so much?
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 20:33:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')It will be even more annoying when the nuclear engineers can't buy gas to get to those plants and keep them running.



Nuclear plants won't be able to open their own gas stations for their employees/purchase gas coupons for their workers?
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby joewp » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 22:05:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')It will be even more annoying when the nuclear engineers can't buy gas to get to those plants and keep them running.



Nuclear plants won't be able to open their own gas stations for their employees/purchase gas coupons for their workers?


Maybe they will, maybe they won't. We can't know, we're not there yet. Who knows if nuke plant workers will be on the "preferred list" for extra ration coupons, or will the nuke plants be able to stock their gas stations with product. Please note that the Dakotas and parts of Europe are having fuel supply problems now, and nobody seems to be allocating fuel to essential workers.

You seem to think government or some other entity will step in to keep things running "normally", I tend to think the government will be looking out for their own asses and to hell with the rest of us. Heck, that's what they do now.
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 23:16:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')It will be even more annoying when the nuclear engineers can't buy gas to get to those plants and keep them running.



Nuclear plants won't be able to open their own gas stations for their employees/purchase gas coupons for their workers?


Maybe they will, maybe they won't. We can't know, we're not there yet. Who knows if nuke plant workers will be on the "preferred list" for extra ration coupons, or will the nuke plants be able to stock their gas stations with product. Please note that the Dakotas and parts of Europe are having fuel supply problems now, and nobody seems to be allocating fuel to essential workers.

You seem to think government or some other entity will step in to keep things running "normally", I tend to think the government will be looking out for their own asses and to hell with the rest of us. Heck, that's what they do now.


And yet during the fuel rationing of WW2, it was easy to allocate extra gas coupons to doctors, policemen, and other vital workers.

The rest of the public waited months at a time for a new pair of stockings.

And in the post peak world, we won't be fighting a massive global war...

That is, unless our leaders are absolutely insane (which they are not).
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby Lighthouse » Sat 03 Nov 2007, 07:16:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '.').. Peak oil is here. ...


Yes no doubt. But what are YOU doing about it?
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby Lighthouse » Sat 03 Nov 2007, 09:47:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '.').. Peak oil is here. ...


Yes no doubt. But what are YOU doing about it?


Never mind. I don't want to argue with you. :-D


Yes, I know.

btw, I am a god damn cornucopian know-it-all ...
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 03 Nov 2007, 10:09:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'N')uclear plants won't be able to open their own gas stations for their employees/purchase gas coupons for their workers?

And yet during the fuel rationing of WW2, it was easy to allocate extra gas coupons to doctors, policemen, and other vital workers.

In a word: outsourcing.

There is a very complex web of companies, agencies and contractors making the system work these days, and I do not see the old way of doing things surviving the first test. Imagine making representations to some government department on behalf of a supplier's employees, on behalf of specific individuals, what's worse maybe not on a contract but on an as-needed per-visit basis. In a real transportation shutdown, implementing a priority user list will be a nightmare. Accountability was easy only when dealing with state-run entities.
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby darren » Sat 03 Nov 2007, 14:54:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')
It will be even more annoying when the nuclear engineers can't buy gas to get to those plants and keep them running.


Ya, because global oil production is going to drop from 85mbbl/day to ZERO overnight. :roll:

You doomers are a funny bunch! :lol:
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Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone!

Unread postby Lighthouse » Sat 03 Nov 2007, 19:42:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('darren', '.').. Ya, because global oil production is going to drop from 85mbbl/day to ZERO overnight. ...


I does not? Damn I was told a lie then ...
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