[AirlinePilot]

I'm getting really tired of politicians and yes men analysts blaming high prices on risk. Excuse me, but this risk they are talking about is ALWAYS going to be a part of the equation, especially in light of where we are in respect to PO, the geopolitical climate, and demand.

Its not going to ever go away again. They refer to it like its temporary! The politicians/analysts wave it around like something which is going to magically dissappear into thin air and all will be well.

Excuse me but when pray tell might this happen? Will it be soon or a few years away? Are they that ignorant, stupid, or arrogant? Are they that clueless about what is going on around them?

With even a modicum of research its rather obvious to me that risk and the associated increase in prices will be with us now forever, and as a matter of fact, the premium probably will get much worse as realization sets in that supply wont keep up with the demand.

Attempting to tell me how much percentage or dollar amount per barrel is risk doesnt mean a thing. It doesnt, and wont ever, change the price of a barrel to even mention it.

Idiots.

[lateStarter]

Excellent observation AP! I love it when people here arrive at conclusions like this which are out there in the open, obvious, but unstated. Too bad you weren't invited to the recent/upcoming think-tank exercise in DC regarding possible Oil shortages.

[RonMN]

AP Wrote:
Are they that ignorant, stupid, or arrogant? Are they that clueless about what is going on around them?


Nope, They're manipulative (or allowing themselves to be manipulated)...and it works to! You wouldn't believe how many "smart" people I know that can easily see what's happening in the housing market. Yet when I mention houses will drop 50% of their value or the stock market losing 50%...they think i'm nuts...they call for a 10-15% drop in both at worst.

These people can see just as well as I can, but they've allowed themselves to be manipulated & I can't say I entirely blame them (well, yes i can)...but how many of us have said we wish we had taken the "blue pill" ?

The dreaded "concensus trance" we've all heard of

[Jester]

Pfftt. Don't ya know that hurricanes will stop forming and the middle east is going to become one huge pacifist nation full of love and acceptance for all, probably next month.

Then we'll get back to $10 per barrel oil and production can ramp up to 100mbpd no problem, just for starters.

[aflurry]

risk is the reason commodities futures exchanges were created in the first place.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')'m getting really tired of politicians and yes men analysts blaming high prices on risk.

Excuse me, but this risk they are talking about is ALWAYS going to be a part of the equation, especially in light of where we are in respect to PO, the geopolitical climate, and demand.

Its not going to ever go away again. They refer to it like its temporary!

The politicians/analysts wave it around like something which is going to magically dissappear into thin air and all will be well.

Excuse me but when pray tell might this happen? Will it be soon or a few years away? Are they that ignorant, stupid, or arrogant? Are they that clueless about what is going on around them?

With even a modicum of research its rather obvious to me that risk and the associated increase in prices will be with us now forever, and as a matter of fact, the premium probably will get much worse as realization sets in that supply wont keep up with the demand.

Attempting to tell me how much percentage or dollar amount per barrel is risk doesnt mean a thing. It doesnt, and wont ever, change the price of a barrel to even mention it.

Idiots.

[threadbear]

The risk of an attack on Iran is growing daily. You don't think that's going to have an effect on price? It probably accounts for about 20.00 of the current price. I agree that many of these commentators are wearing blinders, but you seem to be viewing their analytical limitations through your own.

[lateStarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'T')he risk of an attack on Iran is growing daily. You don't think that's going to have an effect on price? It probably accounts for about 20.00 of the current price. I agree that many of these commentators are wearing blinders, but you seem to be viewing their analytical limitations through your own.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', '
')Of course that has an effect on price. I think what AP is saying is that given the world today, there will always be a 20% fear factor built into the price. If not Iran, Nigeria. If not Nigeria, Mexico. If not Mexico, Venezuela. Etc, Etc...I'm sure most of the rest of the world views the US in the same light (but probably more than 20%).

[TheTurtle]

Yes, an excellent observation. There will never be a time when there isn't geopolitical turmoil or weather threatening the oil.

Until the oil is no longer an issue, that is.

[lateStarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', '
')Of course that has an effect on price. I think what AP is saying is that given the world today, there will always be a 20% fear factor built into the price. If not Iran, Nigeria. If not Nigeria, Mexico. If not Mexico, Venezuela. Etc, Etc...I'm sure most of the rest of the world views the US in the same light (but probably more than 20%).

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', '
')Of course that has an effect on price. I think what AP is saying is that given the world today, there will always be a 20% fear factor built into the price. If not Iran, Nigeria. If not Nigeria, Mexico. If not Mexico, Venezuela. Etc, Etc...I'm sure most of the rest of the world views the US in the same light (but probably more than 20%).

[Valdemar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')
Things are dire, as banksters and goodfella politicians are running the show. Remove them, and the situation will improve. We'll slowly run out of oil, we'll suffer, but we won't freeze to death in the dark. I don't buy that the locus of control lies under ground.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')
Things are dire, as banksters and goodfella politicians are running the show. Remove them, and the situation will improve. We'll slowly run out of oil, we'll suffer, but we won't freeze to death in the dark. I don't buy that the locus of control lies under ground.

[ChefBoyardee]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '.')..Its not going to ever go away again. They refer to it like its temporary!

The politicians/analysts wave it around like something which is going to magically dissappear into thin air and all will be well.

Excuse me but when pray tell might this happen? Will it be soon or a few years away? Are they that ignorant, stupid, or arrogant? Are they that clueless about what is going on around them?

Idiots.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')here has alway been an optional 20% (or whatever) risk factor. Comes and goes. Or not. What's new is the 20% is on top of a 200% or 300% geology premium. Guess what trumps what?

What AP objects to is:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ts not going to ever go away again. They refer to it like its temporary!

[Narz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')isk

[alokin]

[quote="AirlinePilot"]I'm getting really tired of politicians and yes men analysts blaming high prices on risk.


With even a modicum of research its rather obvious to me that risk and the associated increase in prices will be with us now forever, and as a matter of fact, the premium probably will get much worse as realization sets in that supply wont keep up with the demand.

Tell you what : they know EVERYTHING, but won't tell you. The political rulers make their business, without you or thinking of you.
And relatively smart people are misinformed. They read newspapers which won't you tell anything, but somebody brake in the house of Mrs. Smith or a dog was involved in a car accident (At least the newspapers here in Australia it's like this) .

The big parties are bought. The only thing left to do is to get up.