[alokin]

The dollar falls endless, housing crisis, a deep recession in the US is quite possible. This would mean less imports from China and Europe depression there and so on. But for the oil prices and the demand they would fall both - right?

As a result the decrease of production would meet with a decrease of demand. This would slow down the resource depletion.

Nobody would have to worry, US in recession would hopefully not begin new wars, we simply would consume and produce less, and hopefully reproduce less.

Are these views to simple?

[ohanian]

Crisis? What crisis?
It's spring time for share prices, rise and rise and rise
Millions of share traders get an erection just by watching the index goes up

[yull]

Yes, too simple. If there is a recession in the US due to the dollar, housing collapse etc, there will be a global recession, and the demand will drop and oil prices will drop, for a time. Recessions don't last long however, unless it's particularly bad, and oil demand will not go down much. Oil fields will still be depleting, lots of oil will still be being pumped. The peak may be delayed 2 or 3 years at most, and when we try to recover from the recession, we will hit the peak which will no doubt cause another much worse and probably permanent recession.

If there's not a recession due to housing collapse, there will be recession a few years later from the peak, so we are screwed either way.

[alokin]

There are those who are saying that higher oil prices won't hit much the industry:

(in German)

Spiegel

but many others who believe in a US Economic crisis followed by a worldwide economic crisis.

ohanian, are shares really the best index for and economy?

[Cornelian]

If the US goes, alokin, then we're going straight after them. There are no isolated economies any more. There is no growth, growth, growth any more.

The share market is a sort of OK index for an economy - although it may not immediately reveal the deep cracks and fissures and there are lots of other factors. But it is interesting that the US and UK markets slid yesterday, and the Australian market is following them down today.

[Cobra_Strike]

Higher prices or not, people will notice when ther just isn't any fuel to be bought.

[alokin]

Yes, Cobra, I don't think that higher prices have much limiting factor, there are so many countries with high fuel prices, eco taxes etc.
The contrary is true: high petrol prices keeps industry going, because there is a pressure to develop (Maybe if prices are very high the effect could be adverse).
But there is really a question how much economic depression is necessary to get oil consuming figures to a more healthy level.

[MrBill]

I think the above posters are right. Even a recession will not put a severe or long lasting dent in total crude demand. At least not enough to change the timing of peak oil by much. In short because Chindia and growing so quickly, and they have the external reserves to keep investing domestically to alleviate economic bottlenecks at home which would offset any decline in exports over the short to medium term.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he rapidly growing appetite for fossil fuels in China and India is likely to help keep oil prices high for the foreseeable future - threatening a global economic slowdown, a top energy expert said Wednesday.

The unusually stark warning by Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, about the impact of Asia's emerging giants comes as the agency prepares to issue its influential annual report next week, which will focus on China and India.

In preparing the report, Birol said he had experienced "an earthquake" in his thinking.

"China plus India are going to dominate growth in the oil markets," Birol said during an interview at an oil industry conference. During the past 18 months, he noted, more than two-thirds of the growth in global oil demand came from China and India alone.

Demand for oil in China, he added, would eventually equal the entire supply from Saudi Arabia.