[virgincrude]

Like most other posters here, I think PO means the end of civilisation as we know it, but I have come to believe it is also an opportunity to a better existence. PO (as we all know) involves a headache's worth of mind-adjusting thinking, changing everything you ever thought you were sure of from the bottom up. But what we haven't started to do yet, is really investigate how we came to be such intellectually lazy sods.

All of us think we can accept PO means world recession, but we're still discussing ways of revising and maintaining the insane economic social set up which has been driving us towards this cliff for over a hundred years. We're so brainwashed into thinking of life itself as a daily shopping spree, that we can't envision (at least collectively) existing without the mantra of sutainable growth, strong economy, and money based society.

To consistently compare our present dilemma with similar ones from the past, is likewise grossly unimaginative. Since we have the benefit of hind-sight, don't you think we should be capable of getting up and making sure the same thing doesn't happen once again? The prime reason many doomers feel the way they do, is because a general feeling of hopelessness and impotence has been foisted on the American public: unwilling or unnable to see how things could work out differently this crisis, they simply accept that government, for example, has done and is doing nothing/not enough, and therefore they can't make any difference either.

So go dig yourself a hole somewhere and sit in it with your shotgun fully loaded. What a cop-out!

I personally feel that 'doomers' are a prime example of the success of the MSM in dumbing down the masses, since in general, public opinion is the result of massive manipulation techniques. It is a gross denial of the capacity of one's brain to simply accept civilisation is coming to an end because The American's Dream is being cancelled. We just can't think what to replace it with; so go shuffle off and die.

[Chesire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I')'ve been thinking that we could use a short primer on PO, cover all the essentials. Gail at TOD wrote these very lengthy and exhaustive overviews; I'm thinking more like a handbill, really. Easier to print out in bulk. Assuming anyone still wants to proselytize, or thinks it can have any effect; or wants the public to get any message. Also think we could use a post-Peak Civil planner of some kind; what are books like Post Carbon Cities like good for in that department?

My chief worry about all this is that it will be handled ineptly. I know we expect governments to be smooth and efficient, har har har. I don't think the "recovery" of Argentina or Russia should give us hope necessarily; their collapses happened with a vigorous economy going on in the rest of the world, ready to step in and assist/exploit in whatever way. This time there's no where to go but down, economically speaking, which will put us at a loss for supplies of everything - renewables, insulation, construction equipment.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('golem', 'S')omehow I just can't see the Dogon (Mali West Africa) whose villages never exceed 500 people caring about Peak anything...
The Dogon have lived the same way since the time of the ancient Egyptians...and many other cultures have come and gone...and we talk about the great cultures...but the Dogon who have out lived them all are not mentioned with the 'great cultures'.
Somehow their culture is seen as less commendable.
The Aborigine are another fine example.
There is a valuable lesson right there.

The Dogon and Aborigine provide us with a lesson about sustainability and about spreading out and about NOT centralizing.
Rural sprawl vs. Urban BS where the THEY can keep tabs and bartering does NOT exist as it does rurally.

Here I offer is the reality to the question that started this thread.
It is all relative.

The American Dream was built on cheap energy.
Hydrocarbons.
When the hydrocarbons are gone or vastly diminished ... so goes the dream ... the illusion goes poof or is it boom and then pffft?

The Egyptian Dream was built using cheap energy too.
Slavery.
When the slaves left...so went the Egyptian Dream.

So in conclusion no more cheap energy means it is time to wakeup and say goodbye to those Dreams built solely by using the energy that exists around us....

Less oil really only means fewer Westerners participating in the American Dream.

Somehow we need to find a way to harvest the gold energy inside of us and rely less on exploitation of others and the earth...
Simple fucking task.

Who is up for it?

That is why we are doomed. (spiritually)
Nobody really wants to spend the time harvesting the gold inside.
So in that respect it really already is the 'end of the world'.

Most of EWE just don't realize it.


namaste

[greenworm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e go to the Grand Canyon and are amazed by this big hole...and never once in our lives look up...as of late.

[stu]

People will always look to two areas for answers: Politics and the media.

The Western world is essentially the only civilisation that can do something about PO and both of the above departments are based on a model that is dominated by the leader of the empire: The USA.

It's a model that is run on the basis of spreading a certain version of democracy which entails free market capitalism at the end of a countrys transition from dictatorship to freedom. Market forces are espoused as being the best way of dealing with the distribution of natural resources. In order for this model to operate it needs a corporate media structure along with a political system that is designed to benefit those at the top. This way those at the top are able to control those underneath them and create a (to quote Kunstler ) Consensus trance which separates people from the reality of how their modern everyday lives are actually possible.

As soon as these two parts of society are changed along the lines of a more sustainable and eco-friendly way of living then there is hardly any hope.

IMHO.

[Plantagenet]

Civilization as we know it would stop operating if the oil was turned off tomorrow. Cars and trucks and planes and trains and boats and ships would all stop running. Farms would shut down, Factories would close. We'd have the doomer fantasy....economic ruin, famine, war, collapse.

But the oil isn't going to turn off overnight.

The production of oil is going to slowly decline.

So a new and more complex question arises: will we be able to replace oil with other sources of energy like solar, wind, tides, geothermal, biofuels, hydrogen, nukes etc. etc. as oil production declines? How much will energy cost? How will the economy respond? How will the environment respond? etc. etc.

[stu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'C')ivilization as we know it would stop operating if the oil was turned off tomorrow. Cars and trucks and planes and trains and boats and ships would all stop running. Farms would shut down, Factories would close. We'd have the doomer fantasy....economic ruin, famine, war, collapse.

But the oil isn't going to turn off overnight.

The production of oil is going to slowly decline.

So a new and more complex question arises: will we be able to replace oil with other sources of energy like solar, wind, tides, geothermal, biofuels, hydrogen, nukes etc. etc. as oil production declines? How much will energy cost? How will the economy respond? How will the environment respond? etc. etc.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'C')ivilization as we know it would stop operating if the oil was turned off tomorrow. Cars and trucks and planes and trains and boats and ships would all stop running. Farms would shut down, Factories would close. We'd have the doomer fantasy....economic ruin, famine, war, collapse.

But the oil isn't going to turn off overnight.

The production of oil is going to slowly decline.

So a new and more complex question arises: will we be able to replace oil with other sources of energy like solar, wind, tides, geothermal, biofuels, hydrogen, nukes etc. etc. as oil production declines? How much will energy cost? How will the economy respond? How will the environment respond? etc. etc.

[stu]

Personally I don't know how EROEI is worked out. I think Monte is the man for this and I'm sure there's a thread here somewhere with that info.

I'm sure the conversation now will talk about how it's too late to go down the road of alternatives and there's no willingness to conserve etc, etc.

[Eli]

I think Roccman is on the right track.

There are just too many of us and Golem also has a point about how we live our lives out of balance and with terrible goals.

Alternatives will grow but the problem is the earth is filled with greedy men that just want more for the sake of having more. That is the thing that has to end, greed.

Alternatives will be wasted trying to satisfy greedy men.

[stu]

What pisses me off most is now that the green agenda has implanted itself in the political agenda, the mindset of most people nowadays is that we can carry on our lives with minimal interference because alternatives are going to save us and the industrial revolution in Asia will carry on and everyone will carry on getting rich etc etc.

People are quite happy to do the simple things like getting renewable light bulbs (as evidenced by a recent story I read that said General Electric were closing down a factory that made incandescent bulbs due to falling demand) but when it comes to the precious things (driving, flying etc, things that would really help conservation of oil) they just don't wanna know.

On top of that you have politicians using a certain amount of greenwash to make these unfulfillable promises and convincing everyone that everything is gonna be A-OK.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', ' ')we live our lives out of balance and with terrible goals.

[jboogy]

Part of the problem goes to the scale of the thing. 85 mbpd x 30=2.5 billion gallons= probably around 1.7 BILLION gallons of refined concentrated energy consumed per day. What does a gallon of gas or diesal equal in man hours of labor? somebody help me out but I think it's a couple hundred. Imagine how long it would take and how many calories you would burn pushing your car the distance a gallon of gas would move it. Crude analogy I admit but you get a sense of what we're facing.Ethanol as a replacement is a joke.TPTB will probably attempt to switch to electric everything but it's too late , massive quantities of oil required to manufacture an electric or any other type of car. Uranium for nuke plants is running out. Windmills and solar panels are nice but it will be practically impossible to manufacture them on the scale required to replace any substantial amount of hydrocarbon derived energy . America will be particularly hard hit , sprawl is going to make our efforts at mitigation all the more difficult. I'm an optimistic person by nature but I see a bad moon rising , I see trouble on the way. Combine resource depletion with everything else going on and I have a hard time believing anyone with a brain shouldn't be shitting bricks.It's getting closer , like an egg filled with two bloody yolks, the signs of impending doom are obvious. Nations will rain fire from the heavens upon their enemies in the final battle for the last festering pools of black gold. As nomadic bands of ignorant , confused homeless scrabble for bread-crusts and dog carcass , the elite will huddle in their unheated and unlit mansions , praying the wolves outside their door don't find a way in.Roaving groups of radiation mutated terminators with bad accents will gorge on the plump and unwary.Sound too doomerish ? Well , unfortunately for you my friend I have dreamt the future and it is nigh !

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'U')ranium for nuke plants is running out.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'U')ranium for nuke plants is running out.

[Plantagenet]

Hmmm.....Lots of knowledgable people are posting about the potential of nuclear power to continue to generate even more electricity then its already been doing for 50 years, and so avert the collapse of civilization.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic33397.html

Check it out

[inculcated]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')No one knows what new technological developments are going to occur in the future. Genetically engineered biofuels for instance....? High temperature nukes coupled with hydrogen generation systems?
etc. etc.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('inculcated', 'W')hat mode of production does not involve a heavy reliance upon a multitude of finite resources?

[jboogy]

Plantain , are you being arbitrary and capricious again ?EROEI . Short story ; I worked for a few years in PA machining circumferential shaft seals for high speed turbines ,(military and NASA jet and rocket engines ), all exotic metals , inconel , waspalloy , titanium, 300 and 400 series stainless steel . At the back of the plant was an old guy who came and went as he pleased , had his own fenced off area that no one could go in , it was filled with machinery and tools and odds and ends and one big contraption in the middle that was like 15 feet tall with tubes and pipe and shit coming out of it.I started talking to him and you know what he told me he was doing ? Figuring out a cost effective way of extracting titanium from ore , lo and behold titanium is like the fourth most abundant mineral on earth !But it is extremely expensive refining it from raw ore. It's referred to as unobtanium by motorheads because parts made from it are ungodly expensive, (I believe either lamborghini or ferrari produces an engine with titanium connecting rods), uranium might be everywhere but is it concentrated enough to be economically feasible to extract?Think about hydrogen , sometimes it seems as if I can't draw a deep breath without getting some in my lungs but try to find a cost effective way of concentrating it to power your car and you run into problems. I've done no research on uranium deposits I admit but a few people that I respect have researched it and they say uranium is running out . Being a doomer by nature I prefer to believe them.No offense so please don't report me , I swear my papers are in order.