[gwmss15]

why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

its not. there are a lot of things that people can do reduce there fuel usage which in turn will reduce demand and extend supply for much longer. in some countries car transport takes up 40% of all oil used in that country think of the savings if everyone reduced this.

Do people really think the govt will simply allow people to drive cars carrying only one passenger to and from work.

Just cutting out most of these trips will safe a huge amount of oil. all it takes is the local or state govt to hire buses from local bus companies and run a network of buses it would only take a month to get it off the ground. the buses could even be free just to encourage people to stop driving due to huge savings.

Another way is for larger companies to run a number of buses to pick up workers each day and return them to home. same for schools and govt offices.

alot of people say unemployment will get out of control it may do at the start but the type and location of employment will change. just think of the bus drivers need to drive the buses why not train and employ these newly unemployed to do it. small shops can and do function just as well with people coming by bus instead of car.

In my city where huge numbers travel by bus people tend to eat out more and buy small items at shops near bus stops. this is actually likely to increase as more people take buses and wait at stops. just look at any major bus terminal outside of North America there are 100's of small shops and they do well.

Air travel can still be successful in the medium term if they cut out most of the short distance flights eg under 2 hours across land. trains and intercity buses can take this market if people and business are willing to take a bit longer for travel. if your country can do it build the 350kph HST trains now if not make do with normal 100kph overnight trains.

Train travel can be fun and even in Europe there is an overnight train focused on business travellers called "the train hotel"

To me Peak oil is an opportunity for the world and the economy to shift to a new way of living all be it slower and a little more prices due to increased inflation. All that's needed to make a smoother transition is for people. communities and governments to work together and make the changes do the simple and quick ones 1st like create a bus system out of the buses that already exist in your city think school buses, older buses etc.

Even if the USA nation govt will not help why cant local people, communities and state govt take a lead and make the transitions. when they see most states doing something they will see its time to change there view or lose the next election.

So what's really needed if for people on here to make the issue known in there area and with the people who matter in your city and get them to start the transition.

what's not needed is the doomerism that i always read on here some can be done even if it small.

[Ludi]

I don't think it is the end of the world, but I do think it is the end of the way of life we're used to. Not because nothing can be done, but because so little is being done. Most of us here know there are things that can be done, but we feel doomerish because little is being done now while energy is relatively cheap and available. Do you see the difference between "can do" and "are doing"?

[gwmss15]

what is the level of local people involvement in metro govt processes? and is it easy for issues to be brought up to metro govt?

i think the effects of peak oil will vary greatly from one city to another all over the world. what will effect this is the voice of the people living there.

are the local people aware of peak oil or able to accept it if told about and what's needed to be done.

i understand the difference between "can do" and "are doing" one of this websites rolls was to bring people together and to encourage changes to reduce the problems with peak oil.

[Ludi]

People seem to have had marginal success with bringing the issue to the attention of municipal government. Most of us have had enough trouble even getting our friends and families to listen to us about it, let alone actually do anything.

[Cornelian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')re the local people aware of peak oil or able to accept it if told about and what's needed to be done.

[KillTheHumans]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'w')hy does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

its not.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'w')hy does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

[Onyered]

The problem isn't just gasoline it is energy. In an economic system based on cheap energy and continual growth, higher energy costs will cause disruptions in the workplace. It depends on how long the plateau and steep the decline. Just "ride a bus" is a simplistic solution to a multifaceted problem.

I am not sure where you are from, but your statement about the goverment :
"Do people really think the govt will simply allow people to drive cars carrying only one passenger to and from work."

doesn't reflect the situation here in the U.S. There would be a revolution if you told the soccer moms they couldn't drive their Navigator around.

[Blacksmith]

I don't see why everyone wants the government to do something. It all starts with you. You do something.

[Ludi]

I don't expect the government to do anything but start more wars. I think I'd rather the government do nothing at all!

[bonehead]

A complete lack of leadership at the top is missing.Absolutely no common sense or vision is shown.I agree that there are a lot of things that can be done,but i see religion as a huge obstacle to reason.Think about it,we elected a president who said Jesus Christ was his biggest hero in one of his debates with Al Gore to appease the pro-life crowd and look at the mess we're stuck with.In the bible god said "be fruitful and multiply" and reason says we're getting past the point that this planet can tolerate.Look at the middle east,they hate us because they see us as religious crusaders and Sunni and Shiite sects cannot even get along.The bible and the koran are static documents in that there will never be any amendments to them and they should be accepted for all the good things that they have provided and then we should move on.I am not an atheist but i do see religion as an obstacle to common sense.A triumph of reason of over religion would certainly be a huge step in creating a better world along with strong leadership and a sense that we're all in this together.Please God,save us from religion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[roccman]

Two answers to your question:

First

Is is peak everything.

There are just too many of us.

Second

PO will bring about accelerated global warming and earth will become unliveable.

It has happened before and 95% of all living species died.

[Rabbit]

I believe that the US government has placed pressure on US oil copanies to keep controlls on rising prices & profits. If they don't, laws will be passed that permintly tax their profits. Oil copanies don't want to have these laws on the books, so they are temporarly holding prices down hoping that the government watch dogs will leave them alone in the future.

I know that congress threatened the top oil execs last years when they were invited to the congressional hearings on the cost of gas.

I believe a possible strategy of the big oil could be to simply do what the government has asked. The result of the low priced fuel will deplete refined stocks to zero. Then when the gas lines form and major investigations start happening as to why we have no gas, the truth of limited oil capacity could come to be accepted by the public. Once the cat is out of the bag, big oil could raise their profits back to "normal" without being the boggy man.

I look at the changes that those of us here on the board have made in their lives. I consider us early adopters of a changing world. I use to drive an SUV, own a motorhome and dedicated off road truck. In the past two years I have made major changes and now my total fuel usage is 1/10 of what it was two years ago. I have made many small adjustments in my life so that I will be ready to live with less income at the same time the price of everything will be going up.

Most of the people on this bbs have or are making serious adjustments to prepare.

I believe that as a country we cat start making radical changes in energy usage once the people have accepted the truth about limited energy resources.

If the people on this plant can accept and adjust to the situation life can go on in a civil manner. If not we get zombies and warlords.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonehead', 'I')n the bible god said "be fruitful and multiply" and reason says we're getting past the point that this planet can tolerate.

[smiley]

I have swung from being very optimist to very negative.

I guess both are possible. It can end in a disaster for human kind. It can also being something positive, a transition to a more or less sustainable way of life.

Two percent energy decline per year is something we can certainly overcome. Just cutting back our wastefull habits can save us 30% of our energy consumption and give us over a decade more to prepare. It is not that hard to do. We did it before during the oil boycott.

With a one child policy we can curb our population growth. And China shows that this does not affect the economy negatively, like some stubborn contrarians claim. If any thing it benefits economic growth.

And we do have alternatives. We have technology that can help us contain our energy consumption and reduce our burden on the planet.

But whether this will be done depends on our choices in the next few years. We can choose to plunge head-first into a ravine, but that will be our choice, not a mathematical certainty.

Whether you believe in total chaos, a change towards sustainability or something in between, depends on your amount of trust in your fellow humans.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'w')hy does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

[mel1962]

It may have something to do with the following story:

Easter Island circa 800 A.D.

Master Planner: "Chief, we are beginning to run out of wood, our trees are being cut down quicker than they can be replanted and grown! We are facing Peak Wood!"

Tribal Chief: "The people are happy, we are growing, quit trying to slow growth, we have plenty of wood and besides we will figure something out if we run out of wood!"

Easter Island circa 850 A.D.

Master Planner: "Chief, we have no wood or tree left, we are dooomed!

Tribal Chief: "Why didn't you warn me sooner!"

Master Planner: "I did 50 years ago!"

Tribal Chief: "I thought you were kidding! I can't even get a canoe made to get off this god forsaken island!"

Master Planner: "We will not survive this crisis"

Tribal Chief: "Why did this happen"

Master Planner "Unsustainable Growth!"

Tribal Chief: "Well we should have planned better!"

Master Planner: "I know, unfortunately hindsight is 20-20!"

Easter Island is found 1000 years later with a few thousand cannibals fighting to survive.

Moral of the story: Just as peak wood was not the end of easter island immediatley, so too will peak oil be a slow decline into the abyss!

[Blacksmith]

[quote="Drifter"] It's not wise to worry about things we can't control or change. /quote]

I agree to a certain extent, but we can be prepared. Like the old Boy Scout marching song " Be Prepared as in life you march along".

[TheDude]

I've been thinking that we could use a short primer on PO, cover all the essentials. Gail at TOD wrote these very lengthy and exhaustive overviews; I'm thinking more like a handbill, really. Easier to print out in bulk. Assuming anyone still wants to proselytize, or thinks it can have any effect; or wants the public to get any message. Also think we could use a post-Peak Civil planner of some kind; what are books like Post Carbon Cities like good for in that department?

My chief worry about all this is that it will be handled ineptly. I know we expect governments to be smooth and efficient, har har har. I don't think the "recovery" of Argentina or Russia should give us hope necessarily; their collapses happened with a vigorous economy going on in the rest of the world, ready to step in and assist/exploit in whatever way. This time there's no where to go but down, economically speaking, which will put us at a loss for supplies of everything - renewables, insulation, construction equipment.