[paimei01]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', 'A')re we debating geological peak, or peak oil here? It's an important, yet subtle difference. You can argue that, ideally, we can surpass 90 Mbpd in the future if we don't have any wars, people don't riot over prices right now and specialist skills and technology are still developed well. On the other hand, as we can see, there are a great many problems limiting our capacity to output currently and for the foreseeable future. ...
At the end of the day, if oil output isn't meeting demand, then something is up and arguing over whether it is a true or an artificial peak is like debating who gave faulty directions as the car hurtles towards the cliff.

[dukey]

I think it might be slightly too soon to say we've peaked
but it definitely seems like we have plateaued.

[venky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ont you think they have to now? Wouldn't it be great if we could go back to the good old days of $25/barrel.

[aahala]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'T')here it is, in pretty colors. If ever the expression "read it and weep" applied to anything, this is it:



IEA World Oil Supply chart

Third quarter 2006: 85.5 million barrels a day.

Third quarter 2007: 85.1 million barrels a day.

Any effing questions, cornucopians? Or are you going to blow some smoke about this not being statistically significant, and how we need more data points?

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', '
')I was wondering why you thought the third quarter had special
significance? Just hooked on the third quarter, or was it the
very last thing you saw?

If you look at the first quarter, there was no change and if
you looked at the second quarter there was an increase.
So tell me again, why the third quarter is so important but
the others aren't.

[aahala]

Dolly

I agree with your numbers and post. But a drop in production
data is only a necessary condition, not a sufficient one.

If you look simply at the numbers, oil production dropped a
lot more for 4 of 5 straight years in the 80s. We now know
this level was greatly exceeded thereafter.

Of course, lots of things are different from that period. But
that's often the case from one time period to another.

What is it that makes these figures more important than the
figures in the early 80s, regarding the conclusion oil production
has now peaked?

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', 'W')hat is it that makes these figures more important than the figures in the early 80s, regarding the conclusion oil production has now peaked?

[Tyler_JC]

I'm sorry, but that chart doesn't indicate a peak.

It indicates a plateau.

We are only .5% below the top production level of 2006. There's too much uncertainty in that data to call that a peak.

In order to have a peak, we need to see several years of production declines, IMO.

Dip below 84mb/day, then 83mb/day, and finally 82...81...80...

There's your peak.

[Cyrus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', 'W')hat is it that makes these figures more important than the figures in the early 80s, regarding the conclusion oil production has now peaked?

[mel1962]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')'m sorry, but that chart doesn't indicate a peak.

It indicates a plateau.

We are only .5% below the top production level of 2006. There's too much uncertainty in that data to call that a peak.

In order to have a peak, we need to see several years of production declines, IMO.

Dip below 84mb/day, then 83mb/day, and finally 82...81...80...

There's your peak.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')'m sorry, but that chart doesn't indicate a peak.

It indicates a plateau.

We are only .5% below the top production level of 2006. There's too much uncertainty in that data to call that a peak.

In order to have a peak, we need to see several years of production declines, IMO.

Dip below 84mb/day, then 83mb/day, and finally 82...81...80...

There's your peak.

[mel1962]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')'m sorry, but that chart doesn't indicate a peak.

It indicates a plateau.

We are only .5% below the top production level of 2006. There's too much uncertainty in that data to call that a peak.

In order to have a peak, we need to see several years of production declines, IMO.

Dip below 84mb/day, then 83mb/day, and finally 82...81...80...

There's your peak.