The poll JR made today gave me the idea to post this one.
I think that I can handle food, water, safety and transport problems, but what really scares me is...
SURGERY!
What if you get appendicitis? Are you going to get a surgery in your bedroom from the local doctor (which could be a dentist?)
While we can grow food, find water, go bycycling, shoot bandits there's NO WAY to deal with health problems. Our hospitals are heavily technologic and we simply can't do without a surgery room, or those special machines, or chemical drugs.
Health will really throw us back to the Middle Age.
PeakOil is You
Post peak: what worries you more?
Post peak: what worries you more?
by Barbara » Tue 22 Jun 2004, 12:08:07
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by OilBurner » Tue 22 Jun 2004, 12:14:35
I also wonder how many of us depend on medicines to control existing conditions or merely to survive.
The obvious ones are diabetics, asthmatics, heart disease patients etc etc. But there are far more subtle things,
for instance many people suffer severe heartburn. Left untreated it can change tissue in the oesophagus into pre-cancerous cells. Net result, more cancers. The same kind of thing applies to cervical smear tests, breast scans etc.
We rely so massively on modern health care to lengthen our life spans. Without it, a die off would be inevitable, whether the knowledge remains or not.
The obvious ones are diabetics, asthmatics, heart disease patients etc etc. But there are far more subtle things,
for instance many people suffer severe heartburn. Left untreated it can change tissue in the oesophagus into pre-cancerous cells. Net result, more cancers. The same kind of thing applies to cervical smear tests, breast scans etc.
We rely so massively on modern health care to lengthen our life spans. Without it, a die off would be inevitable, whether the knowledge remains or not.
Burning the midnight oil, whilst I still can.
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by Rural man » Tue 22 Jun 2004, 13:28:38
Food is my biggest concern.
Back in the early 1980's, after having lived the first 40 years of our lives in cities, my wife and I moved to a 117 acre abandoned farm in the Missouri Ozarks. We had no trouble with heating as the farm was 1/3 woods and the wood cook stove and the wood heater worked just fine. We had no trouble with cooling because the summer nights were not too hot. We had plenty of water from both a well and we had a spring fed pond and a stream available even if the well were not available. As for security, this part of the country is fairly sparsly populated, but even better, everyone knows everyone else and an intruder sticks out like a sore thumb, plus everyone has a variety of rifles, shotguns and pistols plus stores of ammunition to go with them, and being practiced hunters can easily place shots within 2 inches of the aim point at 200 yards.
The thing we had the most difficulty with was raising our own food. We had a small herd of cattle which was fairly easy to maintain, but we were dependent on rainfall for growing hay and pasture growth and that could be a serious problem in dry times. We struggled with a sizeable garden and often lost to insects, lack of rain, rabbits, and just lack of knowledge. The complexity of getting things to grow, saving seeds, canning excess, all without some practice would be very difficult for someone without many years of practice. Identifying wild edibles would also be difficult without practice. Hunting, even if you could find somewhere to hunt (if you didn't own your land), would be a hugh hurdle. As often as not, a hunter comes home emptyhanded, and in a major breakdown, hunting would reduce available prey from overhunting.
So for most people not already out in the countryside, in advance, experienced with food getting, already known and accepted by the locals, this door would be difficult, if not impossible to open.
As for health matters, that will be difficult. The best is to choose a healthy lifestyle and avoid disease as much as possible, but in a future lived without a lot of modern medicines, the death rate from injury and disease will certainly be on the increase.
Back in the early 1980's, after having lived the first 40 years of our lives in cities, my wife and I moved to a 117 acre abandoned farm in the Missouri Ozarks. We had no trouble with heating as the farm was 1/3 woods and the wood cook stove and the wood heater worked just fine. We had no trouble with cooling because the summer nights were not too hot. We had plenty of water from both a well and we had a spring fed pond and a stream available even if the well were not available. As for security, this part of the country is fairly sparsly populated, but even better, everyone knows everyone else and an intruder sticks out like a sore thumb, plus everyone has a variety of rifles, shotguns and pistols plus stores of ammunition to go with them, and being practiced hunters can easily place shots within 2 inches of the aim point at 200 yards.
The thing we had the most difficulty with was raising our own food. We had a small herd of cattle which was fairly easy to maintain, but we were dependent on rainfall for growing hay and pasture growth and that could be a serious problem in dry times. We struggled with a sizeable garden and often lost to insects, lack of rain, rabbits, and just lack of knowledge. The complexity of getting things to grow, saving seeds, canning excess, all without some practice would be very difficult for someone without many years of practice. Identifying wild edibles would also be difficult without practice. Hunting, even if you could find somewhere to hunt (if you didn't own your land), would be a hugh hurdle. As often as not, a hunter comes home emptyhanded, and in a major breakdown, hunting would reduce available prey from overhunting.
So for most people not already out in the countryside, in advance, experienced with food getting, already known and accepted by the locals, this door would be difficult, if not impossible to open.
As for health matters, that will be difficult. The best is to choose a healthy lifestyle and avoid disease as much as possible, but in a future lived without a lot of modern medicines, the death rate from injury and disease will certainly be on the increase.
- Rural man
by Pops » Tue 22 Jun 2004, 14:01:14
Rural Man, I agree with you completely regarding growing food. In fact after living in a small (now too large) town for our first 45 years we are flying to the Missouri Ozarks this Thursday to look at several small farms!
I wish we had moved earlier, however I hope to increase my moderate knowledge sufficiently over the next several years to help during the hard times to come.
I do worry about being an outsider, but better now than later I suppose.
I wish we had moved earlier, however I hope to increase my moderate knowledge sufficiently over the next several years to help during the hard times to come.
I do worry about being an outsider, but better now than later I suppose.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Missouri Ozarks
by Rural man » Tue 22 Jun 2004, 18:04:19
Pops,
What part of the Ozarks?
One problem is that land prices have run up considerably in the last 20 years. What formerly was $300-$400 an acre is not $1,000-$1,200, which by standards elsewhere is low, but it is really not justified by the income the property can produce. You can raise cattle, horses, pigs, goats, sheep, fruit trees and garden crops. You might see an occasional field of corn, but no major row crops. If you can figure out how to make biodiesel from algae, you sure won't have a problem in getting algae to grow in ponds. If you do not have an outside income or some sort of retirement income, then you will have some difficulty in living from the wages you can earn here, if you are lucky enough to find work.
All in all, this is a good part of the country in which to live, considering the probable future. You will get used to the ever present ticks and chiggers. Most newcomers are treated quite well by the locals. Our closest neighbor helped us immensly and taught us more than we can ever repay, so I doubt that you will have any concern about being mistreated or being considered an outsider.
What part of the Ozarks?
One problem is that land prices have run up considerably in the last 20 years. What formerly was $300-$400 an acre is not $1,000-$1,200, which by standards elsewhere is low, but it is really not justified by the income the property can produce. You can raise cattle, horses, pigs, goats, sheep, fruit trees and garden crops. You might see an occasional field of corn, but no major row crops. If you can figure out how to make biodiesel from algae, you sure won't have a problem in getting algae to grow in ponds. If you do not have an outside income or some sort of retirement income, then you will have some difficulty in living from the wages you can earn here, if you are lucky enough to find work.
All in all, this is a good part of the country in which to live, considering the probable future. You will get used to the ever present ticks and chiggers. Most newcomers are treated quite well by the locals. Our closest neighbor helped us immensly and taught us more than we can ever repay, so I doubt that you will have any concern about being mistreated or being considered an outsider.
- Rural man
by Pops » Tue 22 Jun 2004, 18:43:15
Not to hijack Barbara’s thread RM, but Susan has places to see from about Mt View west to Cassville Plus we have some time to “bird-dog” as well. 40 plus acres here (Central Valley, Ca) goes for $10k – 15k per acre. Our one-acre has appreciated enough in the last 5 years to buy 30 acres there outright. I’ll make a living via the Internet at Ca rates for a while I hope.
Back on topic I don’t worry so much about losing advanced health care in the long term, sure I may want a heart transplant in 25 years but…
I think the most important things we’ve learned in medicine are sanitation prevents infection and water caries diseases. If even limited vaccines are available in the future huge pandemics may not occur in future populations that are less mobile.
Or not.
Back on topic I don’t worry so much about losing advanced health care in the long term, sure I may want a heart transplant in 25 years but…
I think the most important things we’ve learned in medicine are sanitation prevents infection and water caries diseases. If even limited vaccines are available in the future huge pandemics may not occur in future populations that are less mobile.
Or not.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Pops and Missouri
by Rural Man » Tue 22 Jun 2004, 21:51:09
The area around Mt. View is more backwoods (a positive in my book) than around Cassville although both are rural Missouri. Cassville is in the Branson area which has had more price pressure over the years and the population is higher over that way. More retirement, recreational area. Cassville is closer to Springfield and the land, in general, in that area south of Springfield is more rugged.
Mt. View is a nice area, with gently rolling hills and plenty of water. It is almost a two hour drive to Springfield, but has a small Wal-Mart, a hospital, and a quaint downtown area. There are a least three bigger Wal-Marts within a 45 minute drive of Mt. View, (Mt. Grove, Houston, and West Plains). We have been down to Mr. View on occasion on our round of antique shop visits, and enjoy the area.
As a general rule, the further West you go from Mt. View toward Springfield, the more population and the higher price the land.
Lots of California transplants have been coming into this area. Some of the locals might look like something out of "Deliverance" but the overwhelming majority are quite decent, nice people. Crime is very low. Taxes are low, but the government types are always trying to push for more.
Hope things work out well for you. Property in this area does not move overnight like you see on House Hunters on Home and Garden TV. Places may be on the market for a year or two, especially if grossly overpriced, so you need not be aggressive in your bidding, contrary to the bums rush that many realtors try on you.
Mt. View is a nice area, with gently rolling hills and plenty of water. It is almost a two hour drive to Springfield, but has a small Wal-Mart, a hospital, and a quaint downtown area. There are a least three bigger Wal-Marts within a 45 minute drive of Mt. View, (Mt. Grove, Houston, and West Plains). We have been down to Mr. View on occasion on our round of antique shop visits, and enjoy the area.
As a general rule, the further West you go from Mt. View toward Springfield, the more population and the higher price the land.
Lots of California transplants have been coming into this area. Some of the locals might look like something out of "Deliverance" but the overwhelming majority are quite decent, nice people. Crime is very low. Taxes are low, but the government types are always trying to push for more.
Hope things work out well for you. Property in this area does not move overnight like you see on House Hunters on Home and Garden TV. Places may be on the market for a year or two, especially if grossly overpriced, so you need not be aggressive in your bidding, contrary to the bums rush that many realtors try on you.
- Rural Man
by Pops » Tue 22 Jun 2004, 22:08:18
Thanks RM!
I'll send you a Personal Message in the morning, you can check it at the top of most any window.
Don't want to butt in on Barbara's thread!
I'll send you a Personal Message in the morning, you can check it at the top of most any window.
Don't want to butt in on Barbara's thread!
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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by Onyered » Wed 23 Jun 2004, 01:54:29
Barbara, I think your English is fine. I don’t speak any “European” (You’ve never said what your “Mother tongue” is) so you are doing “simply fabulous”. 
I voted for medical although it was a tough decision. I am a Type 2 diabetic, but not insulin dependant. One of the first things I did when I became aware of POT was to quit taking medication and control my diabetes through diet. I still use testing to monitor my glucose however. This has worked OK.
One thing that I have noticed is that most recommended “survival” foods (usually beans and rice) are not very good for diabetics. To high in carbs. I have been working very hard at growing a garden that would be healthier and hope to have a sustainable source when and if needed.
I voted for medical although it was a tough decision. I am a Type 2 diabetic, but not insulin dependant. One of the first things I did when I became aware of POT was to quit taking medication and control my diabetes through diet. I still use testing to monitor my glucose however. This has worked OK.
One thing that I have noticed is that most recommended “survival” foods (usually beans and rice) are not very good for diabetics. To high in carbs. I have been working very hard at growing a garden that would be healthier and hope to have a sustainable source when and if needed.
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by The_Virginian » Wed 23 Jun 2004, 04:18:04
Onyered,
You can always store jerky or salami (home made?). I would invest in Milk Goats if you have the land, the 8 mo. male kids are good for meat as well. (My bro just bought 15 nubian cross) Raw certified milk fetches good money these days...if you can market a cheese/yogurt all the better.
Also Avoid WHITE rice, white rice may keep longer than brown, and taste better; but it messes with body in untold ways. I'm not diabetic, but my thyriod is a little testy.
Nuts (love those almonds) are a sencond tier food to me. I'll buy some almond butter and store it for a year w/o adverse effects. A high protien/fat food. Nuts in shell keep for years. (pecan pie?)
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As everyone can tell, I may fantasize about being Kublai Khan, but I am more concenred w/ my food supply esp. since I don't have much in the way of land. (I had planned diffrently, events took a diffrent turn, now I need to start looking again).
You can always store jerky or salami (home made?). I would invest in Milk Goats if you have the land, the 8 mo. male kids are good for meat as well. (My bro just bought 15 nubian cross) Raw certified milk fetches good money these days...if you can market a cheese/yogurt all the better.
Also Avoid WHITE rice, white rice may keep longer than brown, and taste better; but it messes with body in untold ways. I'm not diabetic, but my thyriod is a little testy.
Nuts (love those almonds) are a sencond tier food to me. I'll buy some almond butter and store it for a year w/o adverse effects. A high protien/fat food. Nuts in shell keep for years. (pecan pie?)
-------
As everyone can tell, I may fantasize about being Kublai Khan, but I am more concenred w/ my food supply esp. since I don't have much in the way of land. (I had planned diffrently, events took a diffrent turn, now I need to start looking again).
[urlhttp://www.youtube.com/watchv=Ai4te4daLZs&feature=related[/url] "My soul longs for the candle and the spices. If only you would pour me a cup of wine for Havdalah...My heart yearning, I shall lift up my eyes to g-d, who provides for my needs day and night."
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fear of no dentists
by Guest » Wed 23 Jun 2004, 10:22:09
Advanced Dentistry. Many of us depend on rather sophisticated dental repairs and even implants that have about a ten year life span, give or take.This is a big concern I have, especially as I am currently getting such work done and can just imagine the complications that might arise way down the road needing further work. Sure hope somebody comes up with BIO-Novicane made from soy or something. . .lol
- Guest
by uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Wed 26 Jan 2005, 13:52:52
I voted other, what frightens me most is staying as a slave in a life where I have to work forever for another. One of the accounting groups herein Canada just released a report saying mandatory retirement has to end, we have to accept less from medical, and forget about your pension through old age.
Staying dependant on others frightens me. It means you dont' have control and have to do what and when they tell you. Am I the only one with that problem here? It also means you are weak. and they can and will mess with you when ever the whim strikes them.
Sure you might have to work off your property for years until you've paid for the property. but you'll be able to pay for it faster if you are not spending as much money feeding yourself from a store or buying "things".
Staying dependant on others frightens me. It means you dont' have control and have to do what and when they tell you. Am I the only one with that problem here? It also means you are weak. and they can and will mess with you when ever the whim strikes them.
Sure you might have to work off your property for years until you've paid for the property. but you'll be able to pay for it faster if you are not spending as much money feeding yourself from a store or buying "things".
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by smiley » Wed 26 Jan 2005, 16:38:52
I voted other.
The thing which frightens me the most is unemployment.
It might sound strange amidst these discussions on self-surgery, canned food, BOB's, and which gauge gun creates the biggest holes in your neigbours.
But I will always be dependent on services from others, whether that is for medical aid, food or other things. That means that I must have some sort of income to pay for that.
I also fear that the economic backlash of peakoil will lead to massive unemployment. I think the biggest challenge is not to become one of them.
The thing which frightens me the most is unemployment.
It might sound strange amidst these discussions on self-surgery, canned food, BOB's, and which gauge gun creates the biggest holes in your neigbours.
But I will always be dependent on services from others, whether that is for medical aid, food or other things. That means that I must have some sort of income to pay for that.
I also fear that the economic backlash of peakoil will lead to massive unemployment. I think the biggest challenge is not to become one of them.
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Food
by OldSprocket » Wed 26 Jan 2005, 18:57:38
Food looks like the root of at least two other issues:
If I DON'T have decent food, I can guarantee my health will be bad.
If I DO have decent food, but not excess, my safety is an issue if there are others less fortunate nearby.
While I am very pleased with my garden, I still have a long way to go. I am learning to save seed while failure is no big deal. I have a lot to learn and a lot of compost to turn.
If I DON'T have decent food, I can guarantee my health will be bad.
If I DO have decent food, but not excess, my safety is an issue if there are others less fortunate nearby.
While I am very pleased with my garden, I still have a long way to go. I am learning to save seed while failure is no big deal. I have a lot to learn and a lot of compost to turn.
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by smallpoxgirl » Wed 26 Jan 2005, 19:32:31
I wouldn't be too worried about the health thing. Truth is that most modern medicine, apendicitis and a few other exceptions aside, is more hype than reality. I can't count the number of times we've had a discussion with a family and decide to take grandma off life support and let her die, only to find out that once we turned off all the medicines, grandma actually perked up and looked better. The only thing that I can think of that modern medicine can claim as it's own that works very well is hygiene. Maybe vacination too. Surgery began as a completely seperate discipline that got gobbled up by medicine. (Surgeons in England even today are called Mr rather than Dr.) Antibiotics work well, but they are really just fancy fungus squeezings. Seems more appropriately part of herbalism than medicine.
A lot of our medical problems are caused by modern society and would likely improve dramatically if it was harder to obtain food and harder to avoid physical labor. (diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, etc.) I wouldn't really expect life expectancy to change by more than 5 years or so post peak. If it does drop, the biggest impacts will be: infant mortality, farm injuries, and violent crime.
As for anesthetics, I'm seriously considering storing up some ether...just in case.
I voted for safety. I'm a pretty smart person. I can figure out the food thing, and being a bit hungry isn't the worst thing that ever happened. I intend to secure a reliable water source ASAP. Transport and jobs? Who needs em? When society starts to break down, there are going to be large numbers of people who are hurting in a bad way. Our society has gone to maniacal lengths building enough weapons to anialate ourselves a hundred times over. Sooner or later all hell is gonna break loose. Survival in that moment is gonna be mostly a roll of the dice.
A lot of our medical problems are caused by modern society and would likely improve dramatically if it was harder to obtain food and harder to avoid physical labor. (diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, etc.) I wouldn't really expect life expectancy to change by more than 5 years or so post peak. If it does drop, the biggest impacts will be: infant mortality, farm injuries, and violent crime.
As for anesthetics, I'm seriously considering storing up some ether...just in case.
I voted for safety. I'm a pretty smart person. I can figure out the food thing, and being a bit hungry isn't the worst thing that ever happened. I intend to secure a reliable water source ASAP. Transport and jobs? Who needs em? When society starts to break down, there are going to be large numbers of people who are hurting in a bad way. Our society has gone to maniacal lengths building enough weapons to anialate ourselves a hundred times over. Sooner or later all hell is gonna break loose. Survival in that moment is gonna be mostly a roll of the dice.
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by NeoLotus » Wed 26 Jan 2005, 20:00:11
I'm with smallpoxgirl on most of this, especially the health stuff. I'm an urban planner and urban planning got is start with the Sanitarians, the public health ladies that advocated getting things "cleaned up." I also learned that infectious disease was already getting brought under control with proper hygiene and antibiotics really didn't do much to bring down mortality rates. The vaccines did more for that.
As for the food, I've been gardening for a number of years. Water and bugs are my big problems but there are non-chemical things that can be done about the bugs. Rodale's Organic Gardening is a good source. Water is just always a problem and always will be. That's nature.
To me, the safety issue revolves a round a few things.
1) How tight is the community? Are they genuinely communal? Are they into sharing and bartering and trading what they have for what they need? Think Amish and think family relations rather than gangs and thugs. Most people are not thugs and very few places except big cities may face this due to LACK OF FOOD AND WATER. The truly criminal, well they are a problem now too, so even that is not new.
2) When people have their basic needs met, that aborts the need to go looking for it or take it from someone else. This makes community re-building and using the planning for food to facilitate community building critical in the coming days.
Just my two cents.
NeoLotus
As for the food, I've been gardening for a number of years. Water and bugs are my big problems but there are non-chemical things that can be done about the bugs. Rodale's Organic Gardening is a good source. Water is just always a problem and always will be. That's nature.
To me, the safety issue revolves a round a few things.
1) How tight is the community? Are they genuinely communal? Are they into sharing and bartering and trading what they have for what they need? Think Amish and think family relations rather than gangs and thugs. Most people are not thugs and very few places except big cities may face this due to LACK OF FOOD AND WATER. The truly criminal, well they are a problem now too, so even that is not new.
2) When people have their basic needs met, that aborts the need to go looking for it or take it from someone else. This makes community re-building and using the planning for food to facilitate community building critical in the coming days.
Just my two cents.
NeoLotus
-We don't need an ownership society,
we need a 'give-a-shit' society!
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-Making judgments without intellectual justification is prejudice.
-We do not act rightly because we have virtue, we have virtue because we act rightly.
we need a 'give-a-shit' society!
------------------------
-Making judgments without intellectual justification is prejudice.
-We do not act rightly because we have virtue, we have virtue because we act rightly.
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by NeoLotus » Wed 26 Jan 2005, 20:38:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'I') voted other, what frightens me most is staying as a slave in a life where I have to work forever for another. One of the accounting groups herein Canada just released a report saying mandatory retirement has to end, we have to accept less from medical, and forget about your pension through old age.
I think when the time comes, all of that is going to go bye-bye. People will cease to be paper pushers and will return to working the land or doing craftwork. We will return to what is derogatively called "subsistence" living. But I believe the native American Indians had a good life where they had their needs met, lived spiritually connected to the land, and had a rich culture full of wisdom. Perhaps we should learn from them how to live on the land and learn to be human beings again.
That being said, there were very large cities in the ancient world, but the majority of the population remained on the land, like it was here in the USA until farming was no longer "economically viable" in the last half of the 20th century.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'S')taying dependant on others frightens me. It means you dont' have control and have to do what and when they tell you. Am I the only one with that problem here? It also means you are weak. and they can and will mess with you when ever the whim strikes them.
The paradigm shift to come will be learning that the rule in nature is cooperation and not competition. The reality is that all things are inherently inter-dependent. Nothing exists in isolation and even now, our lives are heavily dependent on others whether we know it or not. It does NOT mean you are weak. It means you know your limitations. No one is perfect and no one is super man or super woman. To expect that from anyone is a recipe for pathology, and gee, no wonder America is a sick puppy.
As for control, that is determined by whether the community is heirarchical or consensus driven. Most tribal societies are consensus driven, unlike feudal societies that are hierarchical and coercive. With re-localization, the new model that needs to be implemented is the consensus driven kind. This means making real the democracy we are supposed to have.
Who are the "they" that "can and will mess with you"? Most folks are actually not very aggressive. The Hobbesian 'state of nature' is pure myth and Locke has the better model of the two. This does not mean there aren't criminals and thugs and the like but that's mostly because big cities allow for anonymity. In a real community most folks know each and such people are not tolerated. By real community, I mean where people live, work, and play together because their lives depend on it.
Try not to make the mistake of mapping industrial society onto a post-carbon world of re-localized economies. People must go back to the land to feed themselves. This means the small towns will swell again as the cities empty out.
Hm. That's going to a hell of thing for planners to deal with.
NeoLotus
-We don't need an ownership society,
we need a 'give-a-shit' society!
------------------------
-Making judgments without intellectual justification is prejudice.
-We do not act rightly because we have virtue, we have virtue because we act rightly.
we need a 'give-a-shit' society!
------------------------
-Making judgments without intellectual justification is prejudice.
-We do not act rightly because we have virtue, we have virtue because we act rightly.
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Re: Post peak: what worries you more?
by Subjectivist » Fri 03 Jan 2014, 09:24:06
I am cynically convinced we are about to fall off of the plateau and begin the harsher part of The Long Emergency.
That being the case I ask you all. Picture the future six months from today when the media relizes for the first time that the optimists were wrong, there is more demand for oil at $120.00/bbl than there is supply, even with every available drilling rig working around the clock.
What do you see?
What I see is TPTB releasing crude from strategic reserves because they want to keep their people in the USA happy with an election coming in a few months. Maybe they think new supply will come on line in late fall, maybe they just want to win the coming election, motives really are not the important factor, the acts are far more significant. The price is kept stable during the late summer and fall by releases of up too one million bbl/day from the SPR. By November 8, 2014 the American SPR has decreased from 695 Million/bbl to 500 Million/bbl. The media can no longer deny that the world is in terminal decline, if the SPR keeps being used up so fast it will run out of oil before the Presidential election of 2016.
Panic in the Media sets in, they want to blame somebody because that is the normal human reaction, but their favorite boogey man, the oil companies, ar drilling as fast as they possibly can and have launched an ad campaign to convince the public it isn't their fault.
That being the case I ask you all. Picture the future six months from today when the media relizes for the first time that the optimists were wrong, there is more demand for oil at $120.00/bbl than there is supply, even with every available drilling rig working around the clock.
What do you see?
What I see is TPTB releasing crude from strategic reserves because they want to keep their people in the USA happy with an election coming in a few months. Maybe they think new supply will come on line in late fall, maybe they just want to win the coming election, motives really are not the important factor, the acts are far more significant. The price is kept stable during the late summer and fall by releases of up too one million bbl/day from the SPR. By November 8, 2014 the American SPR has decreased from 695 Million/bbl to 500 Million/bbl. The media can no longer deny that the world is in terminal decline, if the SPR keeps being used up so fast it will run out of oil before the Presidential election of 2016.
Panic in the Media sets in, they want to blame somebody because that is the normal human reaction, but their favorite boogey man, the oil companies, ar drilling as fast as they possibly can and have launched an ad campaign to convince the public it isn't their fault.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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