[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '
')Care to explain why renewable energy has been growing at a rate of approximately 50% per year for the last 4 years?

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'W')allace, It's going to be a hard grind down to third world status, with or without the windfarms. Solar and alternative energy may keep it from going Neolithic, but that is all. It's not just oil that's depleting, it's many natural resources, including water, not to mention consumer credit. Did you read the thread I started --Demons of Our Own Design? You should.

A positive planner, hopes for the best, but plans for the worst. Optimists are biased in terms of hope, at the expense of caution. The middle way, seems to be the most prudent approach.

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'A')nother good thread to beat my ERoEI drum:

Alternatives are great, and will grow. If you are young and looking for a career, alternative energy will likely keep you attached to the economy for your entire life.

-----------------------------

The problem is:

The energy required to develop alternative-energy infrastructure combined with:

The global energy loads required to offset GW effects plus:

Cheap oil depletion means that:

Growth will be inhibited.

-----------------------------

In "normal" circumstances, new markets (alternatives)would emerge to offset old markets (sweet light crude) at an accelerating rate. That won't happen this time due to "energy starvation".

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('brobak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hin film solar is shipping at under $1.50 per watt wholesale. It should be closer to $1 per watt in the next few months.

[BobWallace]

"Production and conversion BEVs typically use 0.17 to 0.37 kilowatt-hours per mile (0.1–0.23 kWh/km)."

"Nearly half of this power consumption is due to inefficiencies in charging the batteries."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_electric_

The American driving average is 29 miles per day.

That's between 4.9 and 6.7 kW per day per driver.

Given a four hour solar day that's between 1.2 and 1.7 kW of panels per driver.

Given under $2 per watt for installed solar that's an expenditure between $2,000 and $4,000 per driver.

If (and I do say "if") ultra-capacitors pan out then efficiency (and battery cost) will greatly improve.

(Did I mess up the math?)

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'R')esidential electric is minor demand. Home consumption of electricity only accounts for 6% of per capita energy use. The rest goes toward commerce, industry, agriculture, and transportation and most of that is gasoline/diesel.

[BobWallace]

My house (two people) gets about 90% of its electricity from 1.2 kW of panels. I paid about $5k for the panels, about $4 per watt. The other $5k is backup generation and storage.

Solar is reaching the $2 per watt level on a commercial level.

We don't need storage right now, we need additional peak power which solar and wind supply.

Will we come up with the money to "green" our houses or will we return to caves?

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'R')esidential electric is minor demand. Home consumption of electricity only accounts for 6% of per capita energy use. The rest goes toward commerce, industry, agriculture, and transportation and most of that is gasoline/diesel.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '
')What is really needed for this discussion is the figure that reflects what can only be done with petroleum. The other stuff can be gradually switched to electricity. We now use petroleum largely because it has been cheap.

[threadbear]

Wallace, Just briefly...I'll respond more at length later. India is a third world country showing great growth, as it industrializes and modernizes, according to statistics. Those statistics don't account for the 2/3 of the population that are losing ground.

This is what the U.S will look like in the future, after going through an Argentina type ecomic collapse, the direct result of a credit freeze.

Everything is going to be more expensive, wages will not keep pace, the govt--eventually unable to borrow it's way out of past failures will rely on private equity corporations to finance their own new energy projects and infrastructure projects. In return for blatant oligopolic control and pricing --ie toll booths on roads, bridges, etc... they will see to it that bridges, roads, new sewer systems, are built. All of those dying dollars have to go somewhere.

New nuclear power facilities are a perfect case in point. High barrier to entry, crazy expensive to build. Without govt assurance that they will refrain from interferance as part of a pre-condition to building them, they won't be built. However, with people beginning to actually freeze to death, govt oversight and pricing controls will be very relaxed. When they are finished, the electrical bills to run cities and transport will more than double.

The upper layers of management, all of the engineers, IT upper crust, plus the professional class, will easily be able to afford the expense, as they will be compensated generously. What's left of the middle class and the poverty class will have a very hard time. So let's say, it'll be first world, for those who can afford it, and third world for everyone else.

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'W')allace, Just briefly...I'll respond more at length later. India is a third world country showing great growth, as it industrializes and modernizes, according to statistics. Those statistics don't account for the 2/3 of the population that are losing ground.

This is what the U.S will look like in the future, after going through an Argentina type ecomic collapse, the direct result of a credit freeze.

Everything is going to be more expensive, wages will not keep pace, the govt--eventually unable to borrow it's way out of past failures will rely on private equity corporations to finance their own new energy projects and infrastructure projects. In return for blatant oligopolic control and pricing --ie toll booths on roads, bridges, etc... they will see to it that bridges, roads, new sewer systems, are built. All of those dying dollars have to go somewhere.

New nuclear power facilities are a perfect case in point. High barrier to entry, crazy expensive to build. Without govt assurance that they will refrain from interferance as part of a pre-condition to building them, they won't be built. However, with people beginning to actually freeze to death, govt oversight and pricing controls will be very relaxed. When they are finished, the electrical bills to run cities and transport will more than double.

The upper layers of management, all of the engineers, IT upper crust, plus the professional class, will easily be able to afford the expense, as they will be compensated generously. What's left of the middle class and the poverty class will have a very hard time. So let's say, it'll be first world, for those who can afford it, and third world for everyone else.

[Twilight]

The problem with the positive "could" is it too is only a possibility. We have a trend of greater and greater reliance on energy that has shown no signs of reversal in recent years. More out of town shopping centres are built, supplied by more and more efficient supply chains (read: small inventories with low resistance to disruption), visited by people driving longer distances in less efficient vehicles. The consumer could afford this on cheap credit. When it is removed, the consumer goes bankrupt and is not able to fuel the 'new tech revolution' or whatever by buying PV and other gadgets. This bit of the future is probably non-negotiable as it is very likely 'baked in' already. Any successful transition from oil and gas has to allow for most people being poor. If solutions emerge from the market, they will have a shortage of private buyers. A far-sighted state lead would be welcome but is an exceptionally rare animal in energy issues.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '.')..

OK, I get something wrong?

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '.')..

(Did I mess up the math?)

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '.')..

(Did I mess up the math?)

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '.')..

(Did I mess up the math?)

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'T')he problem with the positive "could" is it too is only a possibility. We have a trend of greater and greater reliance on energy that has shown no signs of reversal in recent years. More out of town shopping centres are built, supplied by more and more efficient supply chains (read: small inventories with low resistance to disruption), visited by people driving longer distances in less efficient vehicles. The consumer could afford this on cheap credit. When it is removed, the consumer goes bankrupt and is not able to fuel the 'new tech revolution' or whatever by buying PV and other gadgets. This bit of the future is probably non-negotiable as it is very likely 'baked in' already. Any successful transition from oil and gas has to allow for most people being poor. If solutions emerge from the market, they will have a shortage of private buyers. A far-sighted state lead would be welcome but is an exceptionally rare animal in energy issues.

[Pops]

Bob, you need to understand there is a difference here between posters saying everything is fine or FUBAR and posters who say here is what I have done and help me with the rest.

From your posts in other threads I can see you have done something.

My thought is you should share your experience in doing things, instead of confronting those without a clue as to where to start with labels.

You know; help them to make the start you did.

The time of arguing is over and the time to help others should start - unless you plan to see them weep over your MRE wraper.

See what I mean?

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '.')..

OK, educate me.

I do attempt to learn from my mistakes....