[TonyPrep]

Well, the full OMR for July is now available.

The May supply figure was revised down from 84.94 to 84.83. The June supply figure is 84.28, down more than 500,000 bpd from May. This is the lowest figure that they've report for almost a year, at least (I only checked back to August '06).

Wow, it looks like they were trying to hide something after all, if only for a couple of weeks.

[Zardoz]

The IEA just updated their World Oil Supply chart, showing the figure for the second quarter of 2007.

World Oil Supply

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cyrus', 'D')enying it is getting harder and harder.

[Armageddon]

I am suprised we made it to 85.2 mbpd. Inventory drawdowns ?

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')o replace that energy would require 365 1000 megawatt reactors (your average large reactor) running 24-7. Oil from the tar sands to offset Peak is nothing more than a pipe dream.

[kmann]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')I challenge anyone visiting this board to provide convincing evidence that we are not on the "undulating plateau" of the peak of global oil production.

[Zardoz]

There it is, in pretty colors. If ever the expression "read it and weep" applied to anything, this is it:



IEA World Oil Supply chart

Third quarter 2006: 85.5 million barrels a day.

Third quarter 2007: 85.1 million barrels a day.

Any effing questions, cornucopians? Or are you going to blow some smoke about this not being statistically significant, and how we need more data points?

[Starvid]

Yes.

[rockdoc123]

not a cornocopian but, it seems to me that until the demand and supply curves have crossed for a period of time it is difficult to know what true spare capacity is out there or what the picture might look like with increasing demand assuming that spare capacity is actually there and the addtions to it from the major projects which are in various stages of execution come on stream in the predicted manner.

[venky]

Do they revise the demand or expected figures, I am pretty sure I sure I saw 87 or 88 mbd in the orange some time ago.............

[venky]

So how many years of a plateau before we can conclusively say that this is it, not a temporary blip or anything.........say 3 years? 4 years?.....or more?

[malcomatic_51]

No it is not "statistically significant" and yes we do need more data points. I doubt such a small decline is outside the accuracy with which the data are gathered. Skrebowski and others are predicting a peak within 2-3 years. Mind you, depletion could be greater than they say.

That said, like you I am inclined to think that we are now "in the zone". And 99% of the fatted masses do not have a Scooby's what is happening.

I'm going to force myself to sit through at least another two years of this before the matter will be settled.

[AirlinePilot]

I dont know.

I'm starting to think that it is probably to early to tell whether we are "there" yet. We may still go up to those 06 numbers. Its not impossible ...yet.

However...

Over the last 6 months or so, there are many small stories surrounding the topic which point to the fact that this is it. Money for the larger projects, the technology required for completing deep water and actually producing oil, the geo-polotical climate, Export land model issues...the list goes on.

I still search for "good" news but the general trend, and even rockdoc will probably concur here, is that as we move forward it is beginning to appear that raising the extraction numbers above where they are may not be probable. It might be possible given reserve estimates etc, but things just dont seem to be getting better for the industry and with all of the possible financial woes it may not be likely that we can get much more traction with production than we have right now.

I see no good trends developing, its going to get more expensive and difficult to produce oil, and no one seems to have any idea about when the price of crude, NG, and fuel in general, will increase to a point which curbs demand significantly.

I think we will probably have a period of a year or two before this becomes really clear, but I am mostly resigned now to the fact that this is it.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'T')here it is, in pretty colors. If ever the expression "read it and weep" applied to anything, this is it:

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') dont know. I'm starting to think that it is probably to early to tell whether we are "there" yet. We may still go up to those 06 numbers. Its not impossible-yet. However...

[venky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'D')on't worry Saudi's will pump 15million BBL of oil a day if they have to.

[evilgenius]

I think 2008 has a lot of projects to see fruition outside of the ME. They will add about as much as depletes and maybe moreso. What we could see is something I call a trailing peak. A trailing peak is when the numbers indicate peak and for all intents and purposes there has been a peak but while still under the conditions of peak the addition of supply inputs post peak skew the average and rejigger the peak date to one that is later. This happened in Texas. All the while that the numbers are being rejiggered the region or country or world is in a state of peak production. The rejiggering is a matter of statistics, it doesn't effect real life circumstances.

[xarkz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'T')here it is, in pretty colors. If ever the expression "read it and weep" applied to anything, this is it:

IEA World Oil Supply chart
Or are you going to blow some smoke about this not being statistically significant, and how we need more data points?

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ont you think they have to now? Wouldn't it be great if we could go back to the good old days of $25/barrel.....

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '.').Lack of available personnel also creates program stoppage and delays.

[Valdemar]

Are we debating geological peak, or peak oil here? It's an important, yet subtle difference. You can argue that, ideally, we can surpass 90 Mbpd in the future if we don't have any wars, people don't riot over prices right now and specialist skills and technology are still developed well. On the other hand, as we can see, there are a great many problems limiting our capacity to output currently and for the foreseeable future.

Now, do we need more data to confirm that we're on an absolute limit for pumping out given the circumstances? I would say yes. Does the argument that we could potentially not be at the absolute geological limit have any real merit? No, for we are not living in a theoretical world.

So whether you call it or not, what plagues our situation today and is feeding the rampant trading in oil now will not be going away any time soon (read: never). The peak could easily be now because of these factors ganging up on us despite such expectations that, business as usual, means no peak for another decade or two.

At the end of the day, if oil output isn't meeting demand, then something is up and arguing over whether it is a true or an artificial peak is like debating who gave faulty directions as the car hurtles towards the cliff.