[Whitecrab]

They remark the period of 1794-1822 as a high, a period of social cohesiveness and the improvement of order and government functions. "Even a blundering war (of 1812) ended up unifying the nation." Apparently the finaly treaty with Englad beforehand is their crisis-to-high point.

Was the war of 1812 a total, transformative, society-changing war? Because that is what a crisis war should be. If you believe it was, and that the American revolution was one too, then you shot their theory to hell rather well.

[Madpaddy]

The war of 1812 cemented American Independence because the Brits saw that they were unable beat the US. (Leave aside the fact they were fighting Napoleon in Europe at the time).

But maybe 1812 was not a society transforming or total war. Can you say the same about WW1. I don't think so. Ok so not a lot of US troops were killed in the 1914-1918 conflict but the entire nation was mobilised for the effort. WW1 saw the beginning of collapse of the European empires and the rise of the US as a global power. It also led to female emancipation etc. etc. I think it classifies as a crisis war even for the US.!!!!!!

[PenultimateManStandin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Madpaddy', ' ')It also led to female emancipation etc. etc. I think it classifies as a crisis war even for the US.!!!!!!

[TrueKaiser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Madpaddy', 'T')he war of 1812 cemented American Independence because the Brits saw that they were unable beat the US. (Leave aside the fact they were fightiumm both the war of 1812 and world war 1 were society changing events.
1812 marked the end of the British empire, sense it proved it could no longer keep control or even regain control of it's own colony's.
and world war 1 did the following.
*set up the stage for world war 2
*ended the major empires that ruled the area for several hundred years.
*was the beginning of the whole middle east crises.
*ended the traditional way of fighting which opened the way for the ww2 style combat.ng Napoleon in Europe at the time).

But maybe 1812 was not a society transforming or total war. Can you say the same about WW1. I don't think so. Ok so not a lot of US troops were killed in the 1914-1918 conflict but the entire nation was mobilised for the effort. WW1 saw the beginning of collapse of the European empires and the rise of the US as a global power. It also led to female emancipation etc. etc. I think it classifies as a crisis war even for the US.!!!!!!

[TrueKaiser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Madpaddy', 'T')he war of 1812 cemented American Independence because the Brits saw that they were unable beat the US. (Leave aside the fact they were fightiumm both the war of 1812 and world war 1 were society changing events.
1812 marked the end of the British empire, sense it proved it could no longer keep control or even regain control of it's own colony's.
and world war 1 did the following.
*set up the stage for world war 2
*ended the major empires that ruled the area for several hundred years.
*was the beginning of the whole middle east crises.
*ended the traditional way of fighting which opened the way for the ww2 style combat.ng Napoleon in Europe at the time).

But maybe 1812 was not a society transforming or total war. Can you say the same about WW1. I don't think so. Ok so not a lot of US troops were killed in the 1914-1918 conflict but the entire nation was mobilised for the effort. WW1 saw the beginning of collapse of the European empires and the rise of the US as a global power. It also led to female emancipation etc. etc. I think it classifies as a crisis war even for the US.!!!!!!

[PhilBiker]

World War I also introduced the world to the horrors of the wide use of high-technology highly toxic weapons specifically designed for indiscriminate mass murder. That was as much of a world changing event as the development of the most famous of this type of weapon, the A-Bomb, which was not developed until WWII.

[johnmarkos]

A couple of points about the Fourth Turning idea (I'm reluctant to call it a theory because it is unscientific). First of all, apologies for the US-centric thread. Strauss and Howe assert that turnings take place on a national, not a global level. That is, the USA might be in one turning, Iraq in another, Germany in another, and China in yet another. So for the US alone (not for Europe), WWI was not a dramatic, society transforming event on the same scale as WWII. In addition, there's a certain amount of randomness in what happens to any society. This is due in part to the fact mentioned above that different nations are at different points in the cycle. What makes it a FT is the way in which a nation reacts to the crisis: using the opportunity to make the event a society-transforming one.

Secondly, the Fourth Turning idea is not supported by hard data in the same way that something scientific like peak oil theory is. It's more a general perception that history seems to follow a certain pattern. There are valid objections such as the one that some events outside of the perceived pattern could be as significant as S & H's turnings. At any rate, it is interesting to see what results from these perceived patterns, whatever their deficiencies.

[mgibbons19]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'A') couple of points about the Fourth Turning idea (I'm reluctant to call it a theory because it is unscientific).....

Secondly, the Fourth Turning idea is not supported by hard data in the same way that something scientific like peak oil theory is.

[Doly]

And how do the two World Wars, so close one another, fit with the theory? Or is it only applicable to the USA, and Europe follows a different cycle with different periodicity?

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'A')nd how do the two World Wars, so close one another, fit with the theory? Or is it only applicable to the USA, and Europe follows a different cycle with different periodicity?

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', '
')Now 4T is a complicated theory, go read the book if you are interested. The evidence you are looking for if they are correct is, in the next 20 years:

[DomusAlbion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', ' ')Saeculum? What the hecks that?

[DomusAlbion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'A')nd how do the two World Wars, so close one another, fit with the theory? Or is it only applicable to the USA, and Europe follows a different cycle with different periodicity?

[TrueKaiser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'A')nd how do the two World Wars, so close one another, fit with the theory? Or is it only applicable to the USA, and Europe follows a different cycle with different periodicity?

[Guest]

For the americans, WWII was incomparably more difficult that WWI. Four times as long, four times as many casulties, the complete devastation of Europe and the rise of the USSR and the USA as the superpowers. You'd have to be putting drugs in your cheerios not to see the difference. From the western europe standpoint, WWI was more deadly than WWII so there may be some defense of the argument that Europe and the USA are on slightly different cycles.

A theory is scientific if it can be disproved and if it can correctly predict future behavior. The central tenet of the theory (from the US persepctive) is that sometime between 2020 and 2025 the shit should hit the fan, in some way shape or form. Furthermore when the book was published in 1997 the authors predicted the Catalyst as "and event or series of events" that would radically change the way that amercans view themselves and their place in the world. The predicted that such an event would occur sometime in the following ten years or so.

911 was clearly the Catalyst and in fact "terrorists" using airplanes as weapons was one of the scenarios proposed. Score one big one for S&H. Consider the theory completely proved if in fact TSHTF sometime between 2020 and 2025 and equally disproved if life goes on with no major disruptions.

A lot of people seem to have a hard time with this theory because it is too simple for them to accept and too difficult for them to admit that maybe they dont have complete and total comtrol over their destiny.

I dont think it matters a bit whether or not whether a large number of people accept or understand the truth when they see it ... it's still gonna bite you in the ass no matter what.

Just like PO

[Trefayne]

Greetings, everyone.

I had to join the forum to contribute some respones to this thread.

I think the peak oil situation will precipitate a Crisis Response from the people of the U.S. But I do not think that Strauss and Howe could have known -- or had to know -- what the crisis itself would be.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Guest', '
')911 was clearly the Catalyst and in fact "terrorists" using airplanes as weapons was one of the scenarios proposed. Score one big one for S&H.

[ShawnAvery]

I think all of these turnings are just another way to simplify an otherwise obscenely complicated system that has now grown beyond understanding.

sure, you can seperate people demographically and use that kind of information to try and predict the behavior of people on a mass scale, but the accuracy of ANY such prediction is shady at best.

you can't just do it generationally. location, ethnicity, religion, etc.. should all be factored in.

the only thing that makes the generational outlook so accurate is that you are looking at people who have all gone through the public education system. even here, the first to experience changes (in my opinion) are those in the big cities where changes are made first, then the changes are swept outward from there.

when it comes to public education, i feel particilarly cheated being right on the line between genx and the millies. (i was born on 1982). throughout the years i had watched the quality of education go straight down the toilet.

i think arizona and california are good examples in what will start to happen as peak oil sets in, but in a more extreme form.. around the country.

more prisons, higher rates of drug abuse, horrible education, high crime, neotribalism, culture war, strained social services, etc etc etc. the system ALREADY doesn't work well here, so theres a lot of tension.

ironically, the people who will suffer most post peak are those who benefit most from the cheap energy. the higher class people are the ones who commute, the ones in the nice houses use up a lot more energy, and the rich are the ones who have this sense of 'entitlement' and who are so militant about getting their fair share.

no doubt about it, the suburbs use a lot of energy. we are going to be getting a lot of WTF as prices change to try and compensate for systemic errors.

i think that a lot of people are totally correct about society turning orwellian, but even that sort of existence is not sustainable considering the massive dependance we have on fossil fuels.

consequently, we will have some places that are orwellian, some places that are mad max, some places that are ecotopian, and some places that are orgies of violence and cannibalism.

saying that society as a whole will have some cohesive response to peak oil is laughable. in a severe energy crisis i cant seriously picture people in washington d.c. giving a rat's ass about mitigating violence and corruption in arizona. we already don't give a rat's ass about all the starving people in africa, according to us, that's africa's problem. we don't care about mexico's problems either, until they start border jumping.

i think the neocons in the whitehouse horrendously resemble an organised crime syndicate. THAT is the example that people are being shown as effective leadership. its laughable. i was born in 1982. in my lifetime there hasn't even been a responsible president in office.

faith in the system and society is evaporating. when consent and agreeing with others no longer works, people will try arguing and fighting. some say a consequence to this will be a civil war.

i think its more likely to be the united states splitting up into countries, i see the united states looking more like europe.

seems like the question in this thread has been 'what kind of society will we have?'

i think we should be asking more if there will be such a thing as society at all.

[theluckycountry]

Well no one liked the message of "Generations", or the latter book, "The fourth turning". Not surprising since it predicted a period of upheaval during the latter part of the Winter cycle (20 odd years) which according to the authors was to begin in the mid 00's. But history doesn't care for the failures does it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hursday, May 08, 2025
History tells us that civilizations and societies boom, bust and rise anew to repeat the pattern - a pattern that demographer Neil Howe says is surprisingly predictable in both its timing and trajectory. Howe refers to these "seasons" of societal change as "turnings", and has famously has declared America is now well into a Fourth Turning, the "bust" part of its cycle - where the status quo falls apart - often chaotically - and is replaced by a brand new order.

Well, in its first 100 days, the Trump administration has certainly made big - and some would say disruptive or even chaotic - strides in its attempt to replace the previous status quo with a new playbook, both domestically and internationally. Is this the kind of textbook Fourth Turning upheaval that Howe expected?

Neil Howe affirms that the global shift from globalization to nationalism, driven by Trump’s America First policies and parallel movements (e.g., Meloni in Italy, Modi in India), is a hallmark of the fourth turning. This trend, accelerating since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, reflects a rejection of the U.S.-subsidized world order, with Trump criticizing globalization as a “bad deal” for America.

Howe notes widespread support for re-industrialization and immigration control, aligning with populist demands for economic sovereignty and cultural identity, a classic fourth turning dismantling of established systems. Howe explains that this bust phase, characterized by the collapse of the status quo and the rise of a new order, is not limited to the United States but is synchronized globally, with populist, nationalist, and authoritarian movements emerging worldwide.

"The trend in the west certainly, and now the rest of the world has been we've seen a synchronization of these turnings… it's global. It's now global." He highlights the Trump administration’s disruptive policies - such as tariffs, immigration crackdowns, and deregulation - as emblematic of Fourth Turning chaos... "Trump is a necessary figure… unleashing something pretty primal. Where it goes though, I don’t think even Trump understands."

Howe predicts increased volatility, legal battles, and potential crises (economic, political, or geopolitical) that could catalyze major institutional reshaping by the 2030s, when a new "First Turning" might emerge. "History also suggests we need some sort of conflict… We need something that would really ensure that people actually reshape institutions for a reason." He advises investors to focus on absolute returns, hedge against volatility, and prioritize assets like commodities, gold, defense, and infrastructure, while emphasizing personal resilience to navigate the turbulent period ahead.

[theluckycountry]

A little more on that generation gap between Boomers and gen-Xers

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')uch of the stress in cross-generational relationships arises when people of
different ages expect others to behave in ways their peer personalities won’t
allow. Plainly, this happened between G.I.s and Boomers in the late 1960s. It
has recently started happening again, albeit with less noise and fanfare, this time
between Boomers and 13ers (Gen-X).

Poll today’s collegians and ask them which generation they like the least;
then ask fortyish professionals which generation they
think has the least to offer. The answer, in each case, will be the other. Boomers
and 13ers are coming to recognize how unlike each other they are; as yet, neither
side realizes that this personality clash will endure, and almost certainly sharpen,
over the next decade. This is nothing new. For centuries, “Idealist” generations
have invariably come of age mounting a highly symbolic attack against their
aging “Civic” elders — and have later entered midlife engaging in a bitter conflict
with their “Reactive” next-juniors. No other generational type shares this
lifecycle pattern of conflict. “Civics,” for instance, have typically found late-
in-life battles with their twentyish children so difficult because they could recall
nothing like it from their own youth, while “Adaptives” have been spared from
overt generational conflict throughout their lives — often to their inner frustration.

One of our purposes in writing this book is to dispel the illusion of generational
sameness. In doing so, we hope to promote more reciprocal understanding and
more mutual respect among the very unalike generations alive today.

The timing and authorship of this book may indeed reflect the workings of
the cycle we describe. Many have told us this book could only have been written
by Boomers, which indeed your authors are (from the 1947 and 1951 cohorts).
True, some of the finest generational biographies ever published — including
Passages and Private Lives — have been written by Silent authors. Yet Boomers
remain the twentieth century’s most generation-conscious peer group, one that
has overwhelmed all thinking about the subject over the past few decades. As
Boomers come to dominate the media, the word “generation” is today being
heard more often in news, entertainment, and advertising than at any time since
the late 1960s.

[theluckycountry]

During the last fourth turning the British empire was beginning to collapse and Germany, a rising power, was seeking to circumvent their control of the seas and the Suez canal by building the Berlin Baghdad railway. https://zhang.digitalscholar.rochester. ... -20-55-31/

A small footnote in that era of course, but the same scenario was played out centuries before with the British trying to wrest control of the Spanish sea routes. They eventually did and the Spanish/Portuguese empire vanished into history.

Iran, China Launch New Commercial Railway Bypassing US Sanctions
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') new commercial rail route connecting China to Iran has officially launched with the arrival of the first cargo train from the eastern Chinese city of Xian at the Aprin dry port near Tehran. Aprin's CEO highlighted the port's strategic role in lowering transport costs and reducing reliance on coastal freight hubs... China and Iran have expanded trade and economic relations in recent years, as Tehran seeks to bypass US economic sanctions seeking to strangle its economy and oil exports.

The rail line between the two countries enables Iranian oil exports to China and allows Chinese goods to reach Europe without US naval interference... China and Iran signed a historic 25-year economic cooperation agreement in 2021, reportedly worth $400 billion in trade. In 2023, China's growing relations with Iran helped it mediate a Saudi–Iranian rapprochement, which led to the resumption of diplomatic relations that had been cut in 2016.