[graycycle]

Peak oil has already happened or is soon to take place. While the exact timing of the event is of interest, I find myself trying to imagine how it will play out over the short-to-midium term. Modern Western style civilization is exceptionally complex somewhat like a spider web with each strand providing and gaining support to all others. The web requires constant maintenance by the spider to remain intact. The question is what happens if the spider runs out of the basic substance required to maintain the web?

One of the critical support cables holding our technological world togther is transportation, particularly highway travel. We are rapidly approaching the point when motor fuel will become prohibitively expensive.

Relatively few people fully appreciate the fragile nature of our transportation system. Roads must be constantly maintained to remain passable. Maintenance is energy intensive. As the tax base erodes and fuel costs climb, governments will be less able to keep existing roads repaired. Anyone who has been involved in highway maintenance can testify that mother nature is always at work trying to destroy roads. It is a constant struggle to keep traffic flowing. Any prolonged reduction or interruption in maintenance can set off an escalating chain reaction of damages that quickly render roads useless.

The implications to the food supply chain and workplace are obvious. However, other strands of the web that will be seriously weakened include the maintenance of electrical and telephone lines, pipelines, irrigation systems, etc. Deteriorating roads mean that it becomes increasingly difficult to service these essential components of modern infrastructure.

Other participants can undoubtedly enlarge on the chain reaction that peak oil can unleash.

[Blacksmith]

Roads are a large part but not the sole transportation infrastructure. Railroads are much more energy efficient and with some repair and extention can at least supply essential goods. However, supply by air will not be viable, though with gobal warming and subsequent sea level rise shipping by sea may fill some of the gap.

[Blacksmith]

Double Post

[Utopia]

Oh what a tangled web we weave.

I can see rail being maintained as a "Necessity Service" though we can already see we have too many roads and not enough $$$ to maintain them all. I wonder if in the near future the government will unofficially decide certain roads are to no longer receive maintenance.

Let them operate until they fall apart.

Seems like the current trend sadly.

[Bas]

let me play the devil's advocate here:

it will be easy enough to build out a bus based public transportation system, though less so in the US because of the spread out suburbs. Also there are great gains to be made from switching to more efficient vehicles, especially in the US. What I'm saying is that the easy solutions will get us through the first part of oil production decline but that the really hard choices will only have to be made when we're out of easy solutions and oil production is still declining, ultimately coming down to "should we make medicine or pesticides?"

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'l')et me play the devil's advocate here:

it will be easy enough to build out a bus based public transportation system, though less so in the US because of the spread out suburbs. Also there are great gains to be made from switching to more efficient vehicles, especially in the US. What I'm saying is that the easy solutions will get us through the first part of oil production decline but that the really hard choices will only have to be made when we're out of easy solutions and oil production is still declining, ultimately coming down to "should we make medicine or pesticides?"

[Twilight]

Some buses in the UK have two rear axles, both of which I assume are driven. Someone out there makes them.

[FishAreBest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'P')erhaps there will be a market for 4WD buses.