[BobWallace]

{thread split from Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent thread by emersonbiggins}

1. Wind. We're bringing wind on line with the grid at an even increasing rate. New wind is less expensive than new nuclear and new coal (given carbon costs are included).

2. Solar. Rates are dropping fast. Thin film solar is shipping at under $1.50 per watt wholesale. It should be closer to $1 per watt in the next few months. We've got two proven techniques for producing 40% efficient PV. We're building more solar thermal at the moment.

3. Wave. There are up and running wave production generators. This is not high tech stuff, just ordinary stuff that we know how to build.

Solar and wind are doubling capacity about every eighteen months. No reason why that rate can't be jacked up a lot higher. And it will as oil prices increase making green energy relatively cheaper.

We won't do "business as usual". We will have to change some things. More efficient light bulbs, appliances, cars, air conditioners, etc.

And we'll force some people out of their cars and onto public transportation or homes closer to where they work.

We'll find more efficient ways to make what we want to make. Businesses totally understand that energy is costing more money and will cost even more money in the future. Just look at the large corporations that are doing their own PV farms.

We'll probably eat 'closer to home'. Less Chilean grapes in January and more local apples and rutabagas.

Life will change. Life might get a little more difficult for a while. But my bet is that life will be much better a couple of decades from now.

Think what the environment would be like without dirty coal.

Think what the environment would be like without pollution spewing cars and with more reasonably sized, clean getting-around machines. (Just take the engine noise out of our cities. What a nice thing that would be.)

At the same time our computers will continue to improve, get more powerful, faster, smaller, and cheaper.

Our ability to fight disease will continue to improve. And here in the US we might actually get universal health care.

The quality of our food will probably continue to improve as it has been recently. More organic, more locally grown so that it's fresher and picked ripe.

And maybe we'll find a cure for unreasonable pessimism.... ;o

[emersonbiggins]

I split this thread from the housing thread because I think you bring up a couple salient possibilities regarding Peak Oil that haven't been discussed in a few weeks in any comprehensive thread on this site. Normally, use of the search function would more than dispel much of the hope displayed above, but I thought a new topic might help attract some thoughts from the newer members around here who might agree and/or disagree with the above worldview.

Have at it!

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '[')color=red]{thread split from Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent thread by emersonbiggins}[/color]

1. Wind. We're bringing wind on line with the grid at an even increasing rate. New wind is less expensive than new nuclear and new coal (given carbon costs are included).

2. Solar. Rates are dropping fast. Thin film solar is shipping at under $1.50 per watt wholesale. It should be closer to $1 per watt in the next few months. We've got two proven techniques for producing 40% efficient PV. We're building more solar thermal at the moment.

3. Wave. There are up and running wave production generators. This is not high tech stuff, just ordinary stuff that we know how to build.

Solar and wind are doubling capacity about every eighteen months. No reason why that rate can't be jacked up a lot higher. And it will as oil prices increase making green energy relatively cheaper.

We won't do "business as usual". We will have to change some things. More efficient light bulbs, appliances, cars, air conditioners, etc.

And we'll force some people out of their cars and onto public transportation or homes closer to where they work.

We'll find more efficient ways to make what we want to make. Businesses totally understand that energy is costing more money and will cost even more money in the future. Just look at the large corporations that are doing their own PV farms.

We'll probably eat 'closer to home'. Less Chilean grapes in January and more local apples and rutabagas.

Life will change. Life might get a little more difficult for a while. But my bet is that life will be much better a couple of decades from now.

Think what the environment would be like without dirty coal.

Think what the environment would be like without pollution spewing cars and with more reasonably sized, clean getting-around machines. (Just take the engine noise out of our cities. What a nice thing that would be.)

At the same time our computers will continue to improve, get more powerful, faster, smaller, and cheaper.

Our ability to fight disease will continue to improve. And here in the US we might actually get universal health care.

The quality of our food will probably continue to improve as it has been recently. More organic, more locally grown so that it's fresher and picked ripe.

And maybe we'll find a cure for unreasonable pessimism.... ;o

[MD]

Another good thread to beat my ERoEI drum:

Alternatives are great, and will grow. If you are young and looking for a career, alternative energy will likely keep you attached to the economy for your entire life.

-----------------------------

The problem is:

The energy required to develop alternative-energy infrastructure combined with:

The global energy loads required to offset GW effects plus:

Cheap oil depletion means that:

Growth will be inhibited.

-----------------------------

In "normal" circumstances, new markets (alternatives)would emerge to offset old markets (sweet light crude) at an accelerating rate. That won't happen this time due to "energy starvation".

[peripato]

You forgot Mr. Fusion.

[Narz]

It's a nice vision Bob and I hope most of it comes true, though I do think a little physical (not emotional or neurotic, most people seem have enough of that kind of suffering) hardship would be good for people, force them to focus.

For the record : I think this is a poor choice of thread title but I guess that's up to Bob if he wants to change it (user's can edit own thread title's right?).

[lateStarter]

This is exactly my beef/point:

Mkwin wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll of which is possible. There was an excellent article on TheOilDrum discussing this new cheap solar film and how just by using the waste silicon the US generates each year from drinking water, the entire US electricity needs could be met within 10 years

[Ludi]

latestarter, I think a lot of people don't understand that is what makes many of us "doomers" or at least somewhat doomeristic - there's plenty of things we could do, what is significant is what we are doing, which isn't much....


I'll believe in it when I see it.

[Twilight]

Same here. Hope springs eternal. There is so much potential. We know this, because it is the same potential identified in the 1970s.

No, I look around me at this built-up over-populated island of ours and ask, are we becoming more or less dependent on uninterrupted availability of high-grade energy and abstracted economic activity? The answer is more, not less. Every year I have been aware of peak oil, I have watched us lose ground and done more for myself.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'T')his is exactly my beef/point:


I highlighted the key word. Could or even Should. My question is, will it even be attempted? I think that we are way past the point of return. We 'should' have been doing all this 'techno-utopian' stuff a long time ago.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')I believe our hard-wiring for optimism (to procreate and pass on our genes) is naturally balanced by the propensity to worry and avoid danger. Optimism does not exclude pessimism and thus I have absolutely no faith any of this will be implemented. It wasn't 30 years ago when it should have been and it isn't now that we are at peak. And it certainly won't be post peak as we look to blame and avoid responsibility.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'A')nother good thread to beat my ERoEI drum:

Alternatives are great, and will grow. If you are young and looking for a career, alternative energy will likely keep you attached to the economy for your entire life.

-----------------------------

The problem is:

The energy required to develop alternative-energy infrastructure combined with:

The global energy loads required to offset GW effects plus:

Cheap oil depletion means that:

Growth will be inhibited.

-----------------------------

In "normal" circumstances, new markets (alternatives)would emerge to offset old markets (sweet light crude) at an accelerating rate. That won't happen this time due to "energy starvation".

[jbeckton]

I never understand why people continue to ask why we didn't implement changes 30 years ago. There was no need to do it then, the money wasn't there.

People are now starting to feel the pain of in the form of skyrocketing energy bills. The Hummers are rusting on the lot while the compact cars are selling like never before even though every 3rd commercial on TY is for the hummer. I don't think I have seen a single commercial for the Civic Hybrid, but it's selling.

People are starting to associate "green" with higher efficiency and less expensive, rather than hippy BS as they used to just a few years ago. People are ready to start making the change now because they want to protect their bank account, the best motivator.

Not everyone cares about the environment or foreign dependency, but nearly everyone cares about their bank account. I see HE washers and dryers taking over the market, lots of interest in tankless water heaters, and HE light bulbs becoming the norm.

If you look around you will see that a change is coming, you cannot deny it-only say that it's too little too late.

If you say it's too late, I ask how do you know?

Where has anyone proven what the down slope of PO will look like?

Who will be the last to afford oil?

If I lived in a budding economy I would be worried because they will feel the brunt of PO much more so than we. Fortunately they are not far removed from a life w/o oil so they will be able to handle it much better than we could.

Not a justification, there is none, but a fact.

[brobak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hin film solar is shipping at under $1.50 per watt wholesale. It should be closer to $1 per watt in the next few months.

[lateStarter]

jbeckton, mkwin, and BW...

Keep it up. I enjoy reading your posts. We 'doomers' here need some periodic reminders of what could be from time to time.

Coming from a technology background myself, I'm not anti-technology. Please don't get me wrong (see my avatar). I love flying over small wind farms in Germany and the Netherlands. I don't understand why authors like Lovelock are so pro-nuclear, but anti-wind.

The sentence that caught my attention above however is this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') never understand why people continue to ask why we didn't implement changes 30 years ago. There was no need to do it then, the money wasn't there.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '
')Care to explain why renewable energy has been growing at a rate of approximately 50% per year for the last 4 years?

[threadbear]

Wallace, It's going to be a hard grind down to third world status, with or without the windfarms. Solar and alternative energy may keep it from going Neolithic, but that is all. It's not just oil that's depleting, it's many natural resources, including water, not to mention consumer credit. Did you read the thread I started --Demons of Our Own Design? You should.

A positive planner, hopes for the best, but plans for the worst. Optimists are biased in terms of hope, at the expense of caution. The middle way, seems to be the most prudent approach.

[Pops]

I’m a fairly optimistic person; otherwise I wouldn't bother to either plan or implement. I don’t have any problem with Bobs thoughts as far as they go. Having read some of his other posts regarding the consumption end of the pipeline, I don’t think he went far enough.

Sure it would have been nice if we had all turned down the t-stat and put on a sweater like Carter suggested but let's be realistic. I came of age n the ‘70s and though I was into “ecology”, believed in ZPG and wanted a little farm back in the hills somewhere, all I had ever known was 400cu.in. four-barrel land boats, ultra-cheap electricity and flared gas at refineries.

There were big strides made, just look at the price of oil in the ‘90s.


One thing that does surprise me is the speed at which some changes in mindset are taking place. Of course a big reason is increasing energy prices and ersonally I like the speed at which they are increasing although faster than I had predicted several years ago. They are keeping the pressure on and the awareness up but not so fast as to have a really disastrous effect on the economy as yet.

Part of the change of course is the Green movement and CC and perhaps part is Boomers like me getting older and perhaps realizing there is life after ME. Like it or don’t, Boomers have been setting the agenda for a long time and it could be we will finally get our head out of our ass and do something instead of want.

By the way, Boomers right now are at the peak of their earning power and have a few bucks to throw around should they choose to.

Oh yea, Iraq and the housing boom also have a positive side. Between trying to prop up the economy and pay for a war no one really wants the fed has been printing money like crazy and the devalued dollar has a disproportionate effect both on what Americans pay for petroleum products and the amount we export – a good thing if we are to realize we must wean ourselves and still have some jobs to foot the bill.

As well, there is nothing like a good housing bust to make folks refocus on things perhaps more important than refinancing for a new widescreen TV.

It isn’t any energy technology (or any other kind for that matter) that makes me somewhat optimistic, as much as the fact we have crossed $90/bbl oil and the world is still here, people are starting to pay attention, BP and Shell are investing in PV and even the Hillbilly Rural Electric Co-ops in Missouri have a wind farm and 2 more on the table.

Could be worse…

[BobWallace]

Gosh, look at this.

I started a thread that I didn't even know about.

Certainly not my title. I thought "redux" was some sort of sauce one made on the way to a good etouffee.

I'll check back in later and see if I'm able to defend my honor....