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PeakOil is You

THE Warren Buffett Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Warren Buffet Begins Repositioning

Postby rdberg1957 » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 23:55:23

I am reluctant, but I am beginning to believe that nuclear power will have to be a portion of a partial solution. We may not find any complete solution to the twin problems of peak oil and climate change. Even if we powerdown, use all alternatives, become efficient as possible, the human race may decline precipitously in numbers due to overshoot.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't make efforts to move in the best direction we can--and revitalization of electrified freight and passenger rail is a good direction.
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Re: Warren Buffet Begins Repositioning

Postby seahorse » Sat 28 Apr 2007, 00:19:27

Look for some Canadian railroad stocks, sorry, can't remember the names right now
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Re: Warren Buffet Begins Repositioning

Postby Plantagenet » Sat 28 Apr 2007, 02:45:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rdberg1957', ' ')revitalization of electrified freight and passenger rail is a good direction.

The US is 60 years behind Europe in developing mass transit in cities and high speed rail connections between cities. While we were spending billions to defend Europe in the cold war, the Europeans were building modern light rail systems in their cities, and incredibly fast trains between their cities and countries.

Virtually all their modern train systems are electric. I'd like to see the US building nukes to generate electricity for new train networks.....the nukes would release no CO2, and the electric trains would help conserve gas and oil in the Peak Oil work we are entering.
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Re: Warren Buffet Begins Repositioning

Postby Elan_Rasa » Sat 28 Apr 2007, 11:48:24

Look at Canadian National Railway (something like this). It's gone up from about 8$ per share to about 50$ (I think in about a year). Most railway stocks are doing pretty well.
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Re: Warren Buffet Begins Repositioning

Postby Merlin » Sat 28 Apr 2007, 15:09:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Elan_Rasa', 'L')ook at Canadian National Railway (something like this). It's gone up from about 8$ per share to about 50$ (I think in about a year). Most railway stocks are doing pretty well.

If you look at a map of CNR service area, it covers ALL of North America. Their own web site acknowledges that 50% or more of their business is in the U.S. and thus denominated in US$. When the US$ goes in the toilet, and it will, the CNR will take a beating. Are there no railroad stocks to purchase in Europe or Asia, Australia or New Zealand or Indonesia? Even South America?
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Re: Warren Buffet Begins Repositioning

Postby TommyJefferson » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 10:06:55

I've been cruising some railroad discussion forums. Those workers are doing well. I would advise a young man to look into a career in that sector.
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Re: Warren Buffet Begins Repositioning

Postby Ferretlover » Fri 19 Oct 2007, 17:12:56

"Applauding" the Outcome, If Not the Motivation, as Warren Buffett Sheds PetroChina Stake
A group that's been urging Warren Buffett to divest Berkshire Hathaway's PetroChina holdings is "applauding" today, even if it might not like Buffett's stated reason for selling the entire stake.
Buffett told FBN yesterday that it was "100 percent a decision based on valuation." That is, the stock price had gone up so much, so fast, that it had gotten ahead of the company's true value, greatly increasing the risk of a nasty pullback. …
Petro China Stake
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Re: Warren Buffet Begins Repositioning

Postby roccman » Fri 19 Oct 2007, 17:18:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', 'I')'ve been cruising some railroad discussion forums. Those workers are doing well. I would advise a young man to look into a career in that sector.

TJ - do you have a link or two you can send my way? Thanks!!
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Re: Warren Buffet Begins Repositioning

Postby TommyJefferson » Fri 19 Oct 2007, 18:25:23

I'm sorry I do not. You'll have to Google around.

As I recall, they were easy to find, but somewhat cliqueish.
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Re: Warren Buffet Begins Repositioning

Postby Denny » Fri 26 Oct 2007, 23:42:21

Canadian Pacific Railway is another Canadian railway, but has the majority of its business in Canada. 4,700 miles of its track are in the U.S. out of 13,600 miles in total.

It trades on the New York Exchange (symbol "CP") and has a P/E ratio of 16. Here is s snippet about them:

"From the Company's inception 125 years ago, it has developed into a fully-integrated and technologically advanced Class 1 railway providing rail and intermodal freight transportation services over a 13,600-mile network serving the principal business centres of Canada, from Montreal, Quebec, to Vancouver, B.C., and the U.S. Midwest and Northeast regions. The Company owns approximately 9,300 miles of track. An additional 4,300 miles of track are jointly owned, leased or operated under trackage rights. Of the total mileage operated, approximately 6,650 miles are located in western Canada, 2,200 miles in eastern Canada, 3,250 miles in the U.S. Midwest and 1,500 miles in the U.S. Northeast. The Company's business is based on funnelling railway traffic from feeder lines and connectors, including secondary and branch lines, onto its high-density mainline railway network. It has extended its network reach by establishing alliances and connections with other major Class 1 railways in North America, which allow it to provide competitive services and access to markets across North America beyond its own rail network. It also provides service to markets in Europe and the Pacific Rim through direct access to the Port of Montreal, Quebec, and the Port of Vancouver, respectively."
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Re: Warren Buffet Begins Repositioning

Postby Cloud9 » Sat 27 Oct 2007, 10:21:05

In the slide, if we slip past the 20th century and fall into the 19th, rail roads will tie it all together. Mr. Buffet will be the J.P. Morgan of the of the new age.
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Re: Warren Buffet Begins Repositioning

Postby JBinKC » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 17:02:14

Actually he has reduced his stake in the RRs in his new reporting period and have been buying selected financials.
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Re: Warren Buffet Begins Repositioning

Postby Gandalf_the_White » Sat 24 Nov 2007, 00:11:23

Warren is a shrewd man but even he should be watching that investment closely, the profitability window is probably going to be intermittent.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> finan

Postby Denny » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 15:01:07

Today's New York Times has a few interesting overviews, sating that Amnerica is for intents on sale at fire sale prices, due to the combination of the dollar slide and the stock market drop. In this article by Maureen Dowd, she quotes Warren Buffett as saying "We are giving ourselves a party to feed our appetite for oil and imported goods and paying for it by selling off the furniture, our most precious assets."

Maureen has some other observations on the apprent impotence of George Bush, "n Abu Dhabi, he marveled at the royal family’s plans to build a city based entirely upon renewable energy. “Amazing, isn’t it?” W. said. You know you’re in trouble when your Middle East oil pump is greener than you are.

Even as W. played cheerleader for Arab business, the Arabs were cleaning our clocks — then buying them. Our addiction to oil has allowed our pushers in the Persian Gulf to go on a shopping spree to snap us up.'

The New York Times also has another article, detailing just how much foreign investment is coming in and buying up so much of America's assets. See Overseas Investors Buy Aggressively in U.S.

"For much of the world, the United States is now on sale at discount prices. With credit tight, unemployment growing and worries mounting about a potential recession, American business and government leaders are courting foreign money to keep the economy growing. Foreign investors are buying aggressively, taking advantage of American duress and a weak dollar to snap up what many see as bargains, while making inroads to the world’s largest market.
It is very curious how the stock market is falling, all the while the U.S. dollar has slumped such that the real underying asset value of of these companies is such a deal. The reality is that the U.S. stock markets have not been in a bubble state as we seem to entering a real rough era in stock prices. Outside of the the high fliers like Google and RIM, most companies have very moderate price to earnings ratios, a much better deal than 2000 or most previous large market downturns.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Mon 23 Mar 2009, 23:28:27, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Warren Buffett Thread.
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Postby pup55 » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 15:36:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')oreign investors are buying aggressively, taking advantage of American duress and a weak dollar to snap up what many see as bargains

Some may view this as an insurance policy. Makes it harder to drop the big one on us, with all of that money sitting over here.
Same can be said with all of that debt. Are they going to sit by and let us go down the tubes with a trillion dollars of our IOUs in their account?
In return, we get our young people to lay their lives on the line and keep the shipping lanes free, so oil can get to their nation.
This is the system as it now stands. Why are the candidates spending more time talking about boys kissing than they are talking about this?
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Postby americandream » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 17:25:33

Lol....amusing logic.
You Americans develop a ravenous appetite for consumption, you emgorge yourselves into national bankruptcy and then blame those you go with begging bowls to for bailing you out!
Now you have reached unprecedented depths of delusion as a nation!
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Postby Tanada » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 17:33:03

WB is a shark, he sponsers tax laws that will destroy small bussinesses and then when his pets in DC pass them he gobbles up the bussiness destroyed by the new law at a fraction of their pre law market value
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Postby Concerned » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 17:56:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'L')ol....amusing logic.
You Americans develop a ravenous appetite for consumption, you emgorge yourselves into national bankruptcy and then blame those you go with begging bowls to for bailing you out!
Now you have reached unprecedented depths of delusion as a nation!

This is like a pot roast stewing for the last 38 odd years, when the "free market" Chicago school took a strong hold in the political sphere.
It will be a choice meal when served up. If the people don't like it there may be a revolution.
I am amazed at the stupidity of otherwise intelligent people. A family member close to me said Mao screwed up China. I thought true he didn't do it any favors but it's not like China was a happy happy capitalist country and then Mao showed up and the people said great lets leave our prosperity and bet our future on Mao and communism.

NO China was in duress under direct capitalist and imperial oppression. Giving the opening for a competing ideology offering "a solution" Same with Germany and the introduction of Hitler.
Will be interesting to see "the solutions" the Americans choose when the going gets tough.
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Postby RdSnt » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 18:31:32

Ah, actually no, the purchases will make it much easier for them to pull the plug. They are rapidly converting their funny-money American dollar reserves into real assets.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')oreign investors are buying aggressively, taking advantage of American duress and a weak dollar to snap up what many see as bargains

Some may view this as an insurance policy. Makes it harder to drop the big one on us, with all of that money sitting over here.
Same can be said with all of that debt. Are they going to sit by and let us go down the tubes with a trillion dollars of our IOUs in their account?
In return, we get our young people to lay their lives on the line and keep the shipping lanes free, so oil can get to their nation.
This is the system as it now stands. Why are the candidates spending more time talking about boys kissing than they are talking about this?
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Postby seahorse » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 18:56:00

If the world financial system doesn't collapse, the ME and East will buy up all our really cheap assets, the only ones with any real value like our coal, NG, oil, steel, etc. They will continue to grow their GDPs in the age of plateau oil by reducing our GDP and our oil consumption, depress our economy, and by our resources all at the same time. That is, if they can decouple from our banking crisis. We shall see.
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