[evilgenius]

Will we see a price fall back as in previous years? Are things so different now with the balance of supply and demand that a fall back won't happen? Could it be that climate change has pushed the advent of cold natural gas consuming weather enough to alter the historical cycle and thus also push back any crude price fall back inasmuch as a fall back has anything to do with the approach of winter?

What does everybody think? I thought it would be 2009 before the world entered the slow dance with death over so many million barrels a day. I expected 2008 to be a year of new small projects outside of the ME managing to keep daily production afloat. That and that several small countries would bow out of competing for crude altogether by the end of '08. I reckoned that by '09 the develped nations would for the first time be facing the grim reality of competition with each other over crude. Perhaps the export land model destroys all of that?

[americandream]

No, because inspite of any underlying retracement in the consumption trend with economic downturns, the overall body of global consumers (look beyond America) is increasing and consequently we are looking at a rising trend.

[turmoil]

There may be a few dips, but I'd say theres more up side pressure than down side risk at this point.

UP: Dollar continues drop, Depletion continues rise (Nat Gas included), Demand continues growing

Down: US recession possibility (demand destruction)

A few producers have various amounts of production off line for maintenance, so when/if it comes back there could be a dip.

[bobbyald]

Yes.

Despite all upside pressure short term prices are heavily influenced by speculation and the big players favour volitility.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Thank Bernanke's .5% rate cut for much of the latest rise. I figure that added on abou $7/Barrel to the price of crude. Expect a bit of a fall off for tax write-offs around Twiple Witching the end of October. Am hoping for two small dips, one in early November, and another in January that should creat some buying opportunities. Am going to get rcs in Rowan, Noble Corp, and probably Diamond and Schlumberger in a few.
Lates.
g

[Starvid]

I have no idea and I don't really care as I am in for the long run.

Or well, an oil price depression is a good opportunity to increase investments in the sector.