PeakOil is You
Saudi Arabia isn't Texas
Re: Saudi Arabia isn't Texas
by RobertRapier » Fri 12 Oct 2007, 20:12:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'R')obert, I seem to recall you predicting that SA would increase production over the summer in response to falling inventories. We haven't seen this. What has happened is SA has increased internal consumption, while maintaining production levels, hence reducing exports. I think it's too soon for you to feel vindicated.
Your recollection is slightly off. I said that if we pulled down crude inventories, I would expect that Saudi would be called upon to produce more. But we stayed at record-high crude inventory levels all summer. Now, in that case, if the price starts to climb, they also have an incentive to pump more, and I said that was something else that could cause them to pump more. So, in response to the price climbing (and staying) into the > $80 range, they argued in favor of a production rate increase at the last OPEC meeting, and there are already reports from Asia that refiners there have been told that they would be getting more crude.
So, given that to this point things have gone exactly as I predicted, why on earth wouldn't I feel vindicated? I said Saudi production would flatten out, and it did. I said that they would be called upon when inventories fell or price rose, and they were. And they are responding.
Cheers, RR
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RobertRapier - Wood
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Re: Saudi Arabia isn't Texas
by RobertRapier » Fri 12 Oct 2007, 20:32:09
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', ' ')Robert is way too optimistic regarding SA. I always side with west texas on those debates.
By the way, it may be of interest to some here - particularly those who think Stuart and westexas are on the same page - that Stuart has really gone after westexas:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3050#comment-248303
Some pretty choice comments from Stuart, noting exactly the same kinds of tendencies I noted about westexas (and I had much venom spewed at me for making the observation). He ignores contradictory evidence, and cherry-picks his data to fit the conclusion. I have said it, here is Stuart saying it:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think I'd rather fight about your tendency to throw out pieces of the data before applying HL to KSA, on the grounds that throwing out different pieces of the data in Texas would have produced the right answer there (if only one had known ahead of time which pieces to throw out).
Or alternatively, perhaps we could fight about your explanation of why a bunch of supergiant reservoirs in KSA are only going to have 15% or 20% recovery rates?
Good stuff. But it gets better:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd if you don't have the "time, inclination, data or expertise to obsess over" that, then why are you holding yourself out to the public as any kind of authority on the subject, because such people should find the "time, inclination, data or expertise" to know what they are talking about - or at least be willing to go figure it out when challenged and change their opinion if the facts merit it.
As I said, Stuart's views on Saudi have evolved since his earlier essays on Saudi. I know that will be disappointing to some here who felt Stuart's essays had put an end to the debate.
Cheers, RR
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