Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Oil Price Hits New Record on Supply Worries

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Oil Price Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby cudabachi » Fri 12 Oct 2007, 15:05:37

link
NEW YORK (AP) - Oil futures rose to a new record trading price over $84 a barrel Friday on concerns that supplies are not adequate to meet fourth- quarter demand.
Many analysts say crude inventories are falling and point to Thursday's Energy Department report that showed domestic crude supplies fell last week and an International Energy Agency report that concluded oil inventories held by the world's largest industrialized countries have fallen below a five-year average.

"This is a concern," Stephen Schork, a trader and analyst in Villanova, Pa., said in a research note. "Despite relatively weak demand ... crude stocks still fell last week."

But others think the supply shortfall in this week's inventory report are an anomaly. They doubt demand is as strong as recent forecasts by the Energy Department and the IEA suggest. These analysts expect oil prices will soon begin a seasonal decline to $70 a barrel, or lower.
Statistically, 9 out of 10 people enjoy gang rape. rangerone314
User avatar
cudabachi
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 671
Joined: Thu 09 Feb 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Venezuela

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby Carlhole » Fri 12 Oct 2007, 15:28:26

Oil mostly seems to trade up a buck and a half on Friday and down again when trading resumes on Monday.

They always say this is because of some new supply report but it's just because it's a jittery bull market in energy and traders choose to hold positions over the weekend.
Carlhole
 

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby strider3700 » Fri 12 Oct 2007, 16:25:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'O')il mostly seems to trade up a buck and a half on Friday and down again when trading resumes on Monday.

They always say this is because of some new supply report but it's just because it's a jittery bull market in energy and traders choose to hold positions over the weekend.


These days you don't know if saturday or sunday will be the day Iran gets bombed or terrorists blow something up. So you make sure you are in the market just incase something major happens and you catch the spike. If nothing happens then on monday you can sell if you want.
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
strider3700
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2865
Joined: Sun 17 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Vancouver Island

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 12 Oct 2007, 16:51:10

always with the blithe "on concerns that..."
User avatar
aflurry
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 824
Joined: Mon 28 Mar 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby DantesPeak » Fri 12 Oct 2007, 17:28:21

Actually this statement is false:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Despite relatively weak demand ... crude stocks still fell last week."


Stocks fell mostly because demand increased, and imports fell back some.

While overall oil demand in early September started to fall back to slightly below last year's levels, it has perked up considerably in the last two weeks. Distillate demand, despite very warm US weather last week, was 1.7% over last year's level in the most recent four weeks.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby Geko45 » Fri 12 Oct 2007, 17:37:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hese analysts expect oil prices will soon begin a seasonal decline to $70 a barrel, or lower.

And there it is. Seems like just last year we were gonna see a seasonal decline into the 60s and the year before that into the 50s.

:roll:
Geko45 - Producer of Doomer Porn
User avatar
Geko45
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 639
Joined: Thu 28 Jul 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Houston, TX

Oil surges to $84 for first time

Unread postby KevO » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 06:26:03

I can't believe this hasn't been posted up here
The oil proce has been breaking records for 48 hours and no mention here! (unless of course I've missed it somehow) :) :) :)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il prices have reached another record - surging past $84 a barrel for the first time.

US sweet, light crude jumped as much as 97 cents to trade briefly at $84.05 a barrel in New York on supply fears before falling back to $83.69.

Fears that world energy supplies will reach critical levels this winter rose on low US crude stockpiles and fears that supply from Iraq could be hit.

London Brent Crude jumped 40 cents to trade at $80.55.

There are mounting concerns that Turkey could invade the north of Iraq imminently to target the Kurdistan Workers Party after a number of rebel attacks that have killed 15 Turkish soldiers since Sunday.

Iraq has the world's third largest oil reserves after Saudi Arabia and Iran and some of its largest oil fields are in the north of the country, near its border with Turkey.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7040775.stm


.
KevO
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2775
Joined: Tue 24 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: CT USA

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby KevO » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 06:28:11

and THEN he finds this thread. I am a twat :oops:
KevO
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2775
Joined: Tue 24 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: CT USA

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby MD » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 06:33:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'a')nd THEN he finds this thread. I am a twat :oops:


no problem...merge time.

You are right though. The board is a slow on this one. Maybe everyone is burnt out on price tracking.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
User avatar
MD
COB
COB
 
Posts: 4953
Joined: Mon 02 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: On the ball
Top

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby PWALPOCO » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 07:27:47

OK , so I know the inventory numbers have been a bit wobbly and thats why theres been some pressure on the prices but isnt there a role being played by the dollar devaluation ? If there are more of those printed dollars sloshing around out there then surely thats more ammo for the traders to throw about at the exchange ?

That aside, if we look back at some of the previous price spikes we needed a war in the middle east, or hurricanes in the gulf, nigerians blowing stuff up, that kinda thing ..... seems price spikes are much more easier to set off.

Paul
All that it takes for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.
User avatar
PWALPOCO
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 296
Joined: Sun 02 Oct 2005, 03:00:00
Location: North Wales , UK

Re: Oil surges to $84 for first time

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 10:39:01

[quote="KevO"]I can't believe this hasn't been posted up here
The oil proce has been breaking records for 48 hours and no mention here! (unless of course I've missed it somehow) :) :) :)
[quote]

Check out the Another Record thread:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic31981-135.html
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 14:52:40

Think a large part of this is due to Bernanke's rate cut of .5%. Figure that added about $7 onto the price of crude. The price is high for this time of year. Chronic supply tightness is now a bigger factor than hurricne jitters and comparable to most political upsets.
g
TreebeardsUncle
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 683
Joined: Thu 15 Jun 2006, 03:00:00

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby strider3700 » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 15:34:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '
')
You are right though. The board is a slow on this one. Maybe everyone is burnt out on price tracking.


Not so much burnt out as coming to terms with it. Last year it was exciting to see everything falling apart. This year It's just another step down the slope. Pointing out todays new high means little when tomorrow will probably have another one and they day after that....
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
strider3700
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2865
Joined: Sun 17 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Vancouver Island
Top

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 16:04:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '
')
You are right though. The board is a slow on this one. Maybe everyone is burnt out on price tracking.


Not so much burnt out as coming to terms with it. Last year it was exciting to see everything falling apart. This year It's just another step down the slope. Pointing out todays new high means little when tomorrow will probably have another one and they day after that....


Price changes in one day, one week, or even over a period of a few months may not be representative of the effects of Peak Oil.

Also due to the relatively 'low' price of gasoline, most (at least in the US) do not find the current price rise threatening to their way of life.

As for how high the price might go, we haven't seen anything yet.
Most still don't understand that consumption has been only kept up by running down inventories faster and faster - since about August 2006. At some point demand will meet the hard wall of fixed supply.

TSHTF by 2010, or maybe 2009.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey
Top

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby KevO » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 20:39:41

KevO
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2775
Joined: Tue 24 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: CT USA

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 22:45:26

I am so burned out I have significantly curtailed my reading. I don't have as much free time online either. At this point, whats going on no longer feels like a surprise to me. Its just one more step towards a future I really can't avoid.

I might be interested again once the $100 dollar level is reached, but that could be a while.
We stand here, as the light of other days surrounds us.
"Hail the Dead"
Cobra_Strike
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 500
Joined: Fri 06 Jan 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: Oil Hits New Record on Supply Worries

Unread postby oilluber » Sun 14 Oct 2007, 07:45:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cudabachi', 'h')ttp://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8S7Q9DO0&show_article=1

NEW YORK (AP) - Oil futures rose to a new record trading price over $84 a barrel Friday on concerns that supplies are not adequate to meet fourth- quarter demand.
Many analysts say crude inventories are falling and point to Thursday's Energy Department report that showed domestic crude supplies fell last week and an International Energy Agency report that concluded oil inventories held by the world's largest industrialized countries have fallen below a five-year average.

"This is a concern," Stephen Schork, a trader and analyst in Villanova, Pa., said in a research note. "Despite relatively weak demand ... crude stocks still fell last week."

But others think the supply shortfall in this week's inventory report are an anomaly. They doubt demand is as strong as recent forecasts by the Energy Department and the IEA suggest. These analysts expect oil prices will soon begin a seasonal decline to $70 a barrel, or lower.


from a candian or Euro $$$ perspective, oil has not gone up that much this year, so a decline to $70 is like a decline to $60
in USD terms even just this year. I'd rather doubt with the negative fundamentals for the USD, oil will decline much, oil should be going up all the time as the USD is going down all the time.
User avatar
oilluber
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 493
Joined: Sun 03 Jul 2005, 03:00:00
Top


Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests

cron