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things falling into place

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

things falling into place

Unread postby CarlinsDarlin » Fri 21 Jan 2005, 23:11:01

I got some junk email today entitled something like "homeland security is everyone's job" or some such. It was an ad for a study-at-home program for wannabe law enforcement folks. Anyway, it had a statistic at the bottom that said the US Dept of something-or-other predicts a 29% increase in the need for law enforcement officials by 2010. That statistic sort of took me aback. After seeing the military parade/presidental motorcade shots of the inaugural prade. It's getting scarier all the time, how militaristic the country is becoming. It just shows me that the Bush propaganda is working. That's a scary thought.

Anyway, then, when I went to sign on line, my homepage (yahoo) directed me to two news articles, which, when taken with the above, will probably give me nightmares tonight. It's not that I read anything particularly new - its just that all the blocks seem to be falling into place for the rapid beginning of what Pops so aptily described as the "Slow slippery Expletive deletede. slide." Only I'm afraid it's not going to be so slow.

The first, Sweeping Freedom Propsal Could Pit US, Partners is a Reuters story about Bush's inaugural speech.

The second is about oil prices going up because of the winter cold - Oil Jumps 2.6 Percent on Freezing Weather

Too many things have been falling into place lately for me to be comfortable thinking we have a lot of time left before things get bad. Or, it may be that I'm just beginning to notice these things - and others have seen it coming for a long time. I certainly see current events in a different light than I did even a year ago, mostly because of what I've learned on this, and other PO sites.

Regardless, my planning & preparing is reflecting the urgency that I'm feeling.
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Unread postby Jack » Fri 21 Jan 2005, 23:23:05

Frankly, I think you're wise to feel that way. Add to the points you make...

1) The dollar is likely to go lower. Warren Buffet believes it. So do I.

2) The U.S. deficits - budget and trade - continue to swell. As I understand it, we presently consume 80% of the world's savings. This probably isn't sustainable, and may result in serious economic dislocations when it corrects.

3) It looks as if January will be down for the stock market. Generally, as January goes, so goes the year. That certainly won't help the economy.

4) If the U.S. loses in Iraq - which just may happen - global reallignments may occur. That probably won't help the U.S.

Keep in mind, smart people survive. And clearly, you're smart - or you wouldn't have put together the facts and come up with a conclusion. So many people cannot or will not.

8)
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Unread postby TrueKaiser » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 01:37:06

it makes me feel worse. i don't even have the ability to prepare.
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Unread postby pilferage » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 03:31:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', 'i')t makes me feel worse. i don't even have the ability to prepare.


Don't be so pessimistic (at least in this regard)...
you're best survival skills are going to be the ones you pick up now that you have some notion of what could happen!
Focus on basic survival skills (self-defense, evasion, tracking, what you can and can't eat), then start moving up to some trade or trades, with the hope that you'll at least know how to be as self-sufficient as possible if things go bad, and most off all, work on your ability to network socially (your people skills).
Right now I almost always ride my bike for trips of less than 15 miles, I'm trying to persuade my mom to buy a nice out of the way house when she's well again, I have a small (but growing) store of canned foods, I'm hoping to travel to my cousin's partner's ranch in Montana in a diesel vehicle powered by wvo this summer.
Start saving what you can and applying where it will make the most benefit...
hell, right now I still spend ~80% of the time doing things I did before I found out about this possibility. :)
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Unread postby savethehumans » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 04:39:16

I'd be more depressed than this, but Thursday, something really GOOD happened! A senior who rides the bus I ride (and lives with his 80-something mom!) says they would be willing to teach me canning and food preservation! At NO cost! I'm still pinching myself to be sure I'm not dreaming! :)

A seniors knitting group has offered to take me on and see if they can actually teach me to knit, too!

My advise about turning to seniors to learn skills is beginning to pay off--for ME! Yippee!
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Unread postby MikeB » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 08:43:12

savethehumans:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') senior who rides the bus I ride (and lives with his 80-something mom!) says they would be willing to teach me canning and food preservation!


That's fabulous. I've been canning for twentyyears, the results of which are immeasurable.

Be sure to buy the Ball Blue Book.
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Unread postby Pops » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 10:40:26

I am proud that at least so far we’ve had peaceful transitions of power – but the amount of hardware at the inauguration is scary to me.

The only things missing from the inauguration were tanks and missile launchers passing in review – they were discretely hidden. How many blocks were cordoned off – 100? A talking head on the tube said we looked like a Banana Republic.

The door thickness on Bush’s limo looked thick enough to take a direct missile hit! I saw it in the clip of him getting out to walk among the “peopleâ€
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Unread postby BabyPeanut » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 12:02:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') can’t figure out whether they are that afraid of their impotence or if it suits their purposes to make it appear there is that much danger

If they were impotent then they couldn't afford that much protection.

Maybe it's "afraid of their enemies" esp. domestic insurgents.
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Unread postby tmazanec1 » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 15:37:05

People skills and networking will be tough. I have Asperger's. But I am working on it.
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Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 15:44:12

wow Taz, sorry to hear about the asperger's, but having decent people around you who know what kind of challenge you face, can make a real difference, just cutting you a little more slack would I'm sure help with the social part of it.

it might make it easier on you just knowing there are some who will cut you slack when you need it eh?
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Unread postby Kingcoal » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 16:08:30

My Grandmother, who was a school teacher, supported 6 kids and a husband through the depression. My Grandfather, who had lost his business, went out everyday looking for any work he could find. There was lots of relatively simple meals and a lot of sewing skills were used, but they all emerged unscathed.

$200/bl oil will stop the world economy in it's tracks, like the great depression. Transportation, acounting for 60-70% of world oil usage will be hit the worst. Oil usage will become prioritized. Will governments allow people to starve and freeze? I doubt it. I don't agree with the doomers. Humanity has survived much much worse in our brief history on this planet. I think we are looking at socialism in the future similar to the socialism which emerged in the Great Depression.
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Unread postby MikeB » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 16:27:32

kingcoal:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't agree with the doomers. Humanity has survived much much worse in our brief history


Such as what? It assumes we know the relative intensive of the coming energy crunch vs. previous catastrophes. We simply don't know how bad it's going to be, nor how it will compare to other crises. I do admire your optimism, though.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eople skills and networking will be tough. I have Asperger's. But I am working on it.


is further evidence of my thesis that "self-sufficiency" is a myth. We are going to have to be even MORE reliant on one another. Cheap oil gives us the illusion of independence and freedom. I'm curious to know, tmazamec, what impediments you have to deal with. Forgive my ignorance.
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Unread postby BabyPeanut » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 17:58:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MikeB', 'k')ingcoal:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't agree with the doomers. Humanity has survived much much worse in our brief history


Such as what?

You remember the time there were 13 billion people and we ran out of dilithium crystals for fuel. Wait that was a StarTrek episode. Sorry.
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Unread postby Winnie » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 21:04:08

Hey Taz! I'm new to the Board, and I'm also diagnosed as being a high functioning case of Asperger's. But I HAVE been working on my social skills as well, and feel progress is being made. Anyway, I too seem to be seeing more and more ominous signs of the global crisis to come on all fronts from oil exhaustion, to global warming, to massive food shortages, and find the most infuriating thing about it, is that it was all completely avoidable, but our species is too short-sighted and selfish. Not that I am letting the news embitter me or anything. Actually, I've been making plans to live in a eco-village for at least a while, and pick up some useful skills in sustainability, while I'm at it, but ultimately I suspect, I couldn't survive all by myself, so would need to find such a community to make a permanent home in-so my goal's not to become so much 100% self sufficient which is probably impossible given my poor skills with tools, but rather to become useful enough to earn a place in such an enclave in times to come. I suspect I'm not the only one on this, and even a person who knows all about woodworking, farming, metalworks, and the like can't go COMPLETELY alone either. Cooperation will be key to survival in the times ahead.
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Unread postby MikeB » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 21:22:42

Winnie, you said,

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')y goal's not to become so much 100% self sufficient which is probably impossible given my poor skills with tools


Don't worry, because such "self-sufficiency" is impossible, PERIOD. I've been trying to suffice for twenty years, and my experience has been that the more aspects of your life you get under your personal control, the more you see how UTTERLY DEPENDENT you are on others (thousands of nameless others).

For example: I'm lucky enough to be in a position to cut, rake, and put up 100% of my own hay for our animals here. "Wow, you really are self-sufficient, aren't you?"

No.

Tractors require gasoline, maintenance, and someone to buy them from. Can't you just picture all the tentacles of dependency clinging to those factors? Unless you own all your own hayfields, you have to cut on someone else's land (which we do). There's maintenance on machines: so if you need a part you gotta mail order it or drive to the nearest farm store. Plus, you think I can put all that hay in the barn myself? It's hard to find people, too, during the weekdays in the summer, because most people have a "real job" and aren't available to help loafers like me.

That's just one piece of a HUGE picture.
As I've said before, if oil does peak, and if it will require the efforts some of the pessimists fear it will, then building WORKABLE DEPENDENCIES should be your goal, not some mythical "self-sufficiency."
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Unread postby CarlinsDarlin » Sat 22 Jan 2005, 23:21:41

MikeB,
I agree with much of what you wrote. My goal is to be as self-sufficent as possible. That being said, I have always understood that I'll need others to help - it's not humanly possible to learn everything you would potentially need to know to be truly self-reliant. (Let alone having access to equipment, etc.) That is part of why my husband and I relocated back to my childhood home. I'm about 1/4 mile up the road from the house I grew up in, and am surrounded by people I have known my entire life. The people on this mountain have, historically, run their mountain like a mini-community. It's much easier to travel 15 miles to "town" these days - but in the not too distant past, a trip to town was a big affair - and didn't happen often. Much trade was carried on among families, and people helped out when others needed it - cutting hay, catching chickens :), nursing the sick, watching children, helping with gardening, or whatever.

Many people out here have gotten away from that cohesiveness to a degree, but there is still a good nucleus here to build from. Our selling eggs has as much to do with paying for the chickens' food as it does to building ties with the community. I am also planning to share garden space with a couple friends this year - in exchange for helping to plant, weed, maintain and harvest, we'll split some of the produce. I know I'll end up doing the bulk of the work, but I'll also get the bulk of the produce - so it's fair to me.

I also have at least one "student" this year who wants to help with my canning, to learn the skill. I'll have her bring her own jars and lids - we'll do the canning together so she can learn, and she can take home her own canning. I'll invest my energy (personal and power-wise:)), and she'll invest her time and the cost of her jars. I figure it's also a good trade - and I'll build even more connections.

Savethehumans has the right idea - learn what you can, and teach what you know. I am doing both. And by doing so, I'm also doing my part to rebuild the traditional character of this place that I love so much. I am hopeful that we as a community will come through the hard times ahead better than many.

Kathy
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Unread postby BabyPeanut » Sun 23 Jan 2005, 08:16:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MikeB', 'm')ost people have a "real job" and aren't available to help loafers like me.

:-D

I wonder what I would be like if I didn't have the illness I do, if I hadn't seen others die of the illness I have, if I didn't have to use medications to stay alive. Where would I be? What would I be doing now?
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The next depression will be worse

Unread postby hoplite » Sun 23 Jan 2005, 21:47:50

The last US depression affected a relatively homogeneic population. American culture, by and large was fairly altruistic, egalitarian and civilized. People pretty much got along and shared, the ques (soup lines)were remarkably civilized. Things are very different now. Tell me, do you honestly think blacks and mexicans are going to humbly line up and wait their turn for food if things get that bad? Black people won't even wait in line at amusement parks!
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Unread postby KiddieKorral » Sun 23 Jan 2005, 21:50:54

What does race have to do with it? Stupidity doesn't discriminate.
American by birth, Muslim by choice, Southern by the grace of God!
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Unread postby jato » Mon 24 Jan 2005, 01:51:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat does race have to do with it? Stupidity doesn't discriminate.


I learned about race violence when I started working in the county jail system at age 21. All inmates had to be partnered up by race. There was also racial violence inmate vs. inmate. Races did not eat or socialize together while in jail. It opened my eyes to the fact that everyone is not as colorblind as I am.

So while race may not matter to you or me, it matters to a ton of other people. For that reason, I would not want to see a mixed race bread line in some areas. It may cause more problems than it solved.

For the record, whites are just as flawed as any other race IMHO.

However, comments like this:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ell me, do you honestly think blacks and mexicans are going to humbly line up and wait their turn for food if things get that bad? Black people won't even wait in line at amusement parks!


...are not helping. Unless there is some other further explanation
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