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The Modern Paradox

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The Modern Paradox

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Thu 04 Oct 2007, 23:09:44

The Romans built a system that lasted for a thousand years. They had no sophisticated understanding of hydraulics, but their aqueducts are still standing. We have a magnificent understanding of hydraulics and our pipes are on the edge of collapse. Something doesn't add up here.
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby Revi » Thu 04 Oct 2007, 23:16:52

Nothing we do is for any long term use. Cars have a useful life which is shorter than that of a cat. We live in wooden houses for the most part. They rot after 100 years, or sooner if they get a hole in the roof. We are a very impermanent society. There won't be anything worth keeping going soon.
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby Bas » Thu 04 Oct 2007, 23:24:16

on the other hand a dvd for example will hold as many as a thousand books on it and still be readable in a thousand years......but then again you'd still have to have a working computer too and those.....aren't exactly designed for a lifespan beyond 10 years...
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby eastbay » Thu 04 Oct 2007, 23:27:19

No recent constructions will last more than a few hundred years. Almost all residential structures and most other buildings will be gone by 2100.

Freeways and canals all over the world are temporary and will be absorbed by the earth within a few years of The Collapse.

Nearly all of the steel and glass towers will have crumbled by 2200.

No one will be able to operate the great dams and they too will back-fill and in a fairly short time, fall.

Also, by 2200 every river and canyon bridge will have fallen; never again to be replaced.

By 2500 there will be little evidence that The Age of Oil ever occurred, and absolutely, positively no one alive literate enough to understand what it was anyhow.
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Thu 04 Oct 2007, 23:45:43

What I'm trying to say is that we have progressed to such heights undreamed of in the past, but remain as stupid as a shoe. That's the paradox to me.
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 00:11:24

Maybe this will make it more clear what I'm trying to say here. When they laid down all this modern infrastructure in the the early 20th Century they knew that it would need to be replaced. And they knew it would have to be done within 70 to a 100 years. What they didn't know was that we would be preoccupied with laying down fiber optic cables and there would be no understanding or money to do what they assumed we would do. They didn't understand us, and we didn't understand them, and now we're toast.
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby Jack » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 00:21:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'W')hat I'm trying to say is that we have progressed to such heights undreamed of in the past, but remain as stupid as a shoe. That's the paradox to me.


Not really a paradox. Humankind has always been as stupid as a shoe. More so, since shoes have some use.

We have a big population, and fossil fuels let us divert a lot of effort into various efforts not directly related to survival. So we have more scientists, more mathematicians, more everything than ever before. All those little increments add up.

And when fossil fuels run out? Population will decrease, and the proportion of the population working for direct survival (e.g., farming) will increase.

The results? A new dark age. And it never ends.

Pleasant dreams. 8)
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby Zardoz » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 01:23:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'T')he Romans built a system that lasted for a thousand years. They had no sophisticated understanding of hydraulics, but their aqueducts are still standing. We have a magnificent understanding of hydraulics and our pipes are on the edge of collapse. Something doesn't add up here.

How do we know they didn't constantly maintain and repair the system over that thousand years? Labor was cheap, you know. Rome had all the slaves they needed to keep the system in workable order. Certainly they didn't just build it and stand back and watch it work. We have no idea of how much maintenance it required.

And how much water did it actually move? It would be interesting to compare its capacity to that of the California water system, or maybe New York State's.

Sure, the Roman system was amazing for its time, but do we romanticize it a bit because some beautiful remnants of it are still visible?
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby TWilliam » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 02:33:54

Of course most things today have a very limited lifespan. If stuff lasted for thousands of years, it wouldn't be long before there was no need to buy more stuff, since everybody'd have whatever they needed and it would last for the rest of their lives, plus the lives of many generations of their successors.

It's called "planned obsolescence", and it's what keeps the capitalist machine humming along...
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby Zardoz » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 03:19:01

A few minutes of Googling indicates that perhaps we shouldn't be quite so awed by the Roman system:

The Roman Aqueducts 313 B.C. - 128 A.D.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ong regarded by practicing engineers as brilliant engineering feats, the Roman aqueducts, spanning a useful life of some 440 years, are still very much in evidence today, although few, if any, continue to convey water...

...Although the Romans engineered their aqueducts superbly, they were not watertight (portland cement wasn't invented until 1820 A.D.), which eventually caused them to fall into disrepair and decay. The last Roman aqueduct was built in 128 A.D. By the 6th century A.D., only a few of Rome's neglected aqueducts conveyed anything but crumbling beauty.



Aqueducts of Rome Under Augustus

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Augustan era was perhaps the greatest period of construction in ancient Rome. One of the more important aspects of this program was the repair and renewal of the city's system of aqueducts. At that time, the city was served by four aqueducts-the Appia, Anio Vetus, Marcia and Tepula. All of these were in great need of repair and augmentation, since the most recent was almost a century old.

Hmmm. According to this, they were shot after just a hundred years. Not quite a thousand, huh?


Roman Aqueducts

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Maintenance of the water system was a continuous task, and the Romans assigned a Curator Aquarum to oversee this undertaking. Paid laborers, slaves and the legions all had parts in building parts of the water system. The Curator Aquarum maintained the aqueducts of Rome, while similar curators oversaw those in the provinces.



Aqueducts, Water Supply and Sewage in Ancient Rome

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Water did not go to all residents of Rome. Only the rich had private service and the rich were as likely to divert and hence, steal, the water from the aqueducts as anyone. Water in residences only reached the lowest floors. Most Romans got their water from a constantly running public fountain.

This is supposedly superior to what we have today?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PMS', '.')..our pipes are on the edge of collapse.

They are? I'm sure there's plenty of maintenance to do, just as there was in ancient Roman times, but what evidence do you have that the water supply system of the modern world is on the "edge of collapse"? What examples can you cite of large areas of the U.S. losing their water supply because of pipe system failure? I sure haven't heard of any.

I just checked the taps in our house. They all work. Is anybody reading this having trouble getting water?
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby jupiters_release » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 05:04:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'o')n the other hand a dvd for example will hold as many as a thousand books on it and still be readable in a thousand years


you'll be lucky if dvd's last 10 to 20 years even with special care, where did you get this idea of 1000 years?
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby Bas » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 05:51:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'o')n the other hand a dvd for example will hold as many as a thousand books on it and still be readable in a thousand years


you'll be lucky if dvd's last 10 to 20 years even with special care, where did you get this idea of 1000 years?


where did you get this idea of 10 to 20 years? CD's last 1000's of years or so goes the cliche (which ofcourse doesn't make it necesarily true), but ofcourse a dvd is not a cd. Are you talking about recordables?

Either way, back on topic; the real lasting thing of this society may be the science itself, though maybe not so much the technological know how which we use to put that science to work...
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby MD » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 06:26:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'T')he Romans built a system that lasted for a thousand years. They had no sophisticated understanding of hydraulics, but their aqueducts are still standing. We have a magnificent understanding of hydraulics and our pipes are on the edge of collapse. Something doesn't add up here.


The whole ff thing is a death trap that we collectively walked into because the short term rewards proved irresistible.
Once again; humanity has fallen, and the great tragedy plays on.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby dinopello » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 08:26:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'W')e have no idea of how much maintenance it required.


Utilities require maintenance, now and in Roman times. I think it is true that there are many places in the US that have 'deferred' maintenance because the people wanted roads, they didn't want taxes, or they otherwise didn't pay attention to their civic responsibilities. Those areas would be hurting po or not.

Arlington just completing major water main reconditioning project.
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby eastbay » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 11:18:16

http://faq.nmmi.edu/fom-serve/cache/335.html

.... I got curious, so I googled it. Regarding lifetime of a dvd.

Basically as long as they last until replacement technology arrives, and one converts the data to the new technology, you should be ok. However, in a few decades it will be difficult to find equipment that can read them.
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby TWilliam » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 11:51:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'h')ttp://faq.nmmi.edu/fom-serve/cache/335.html

.... I got curious, so I googled it. Regarding lifetime of a dvd.

Basically as long as they last until replacement technology arrives, and one converts the data to the new technology, you should be ok. However, in a few decades it will be difficult to find equipment that can read them.


Decades hell. My DVD player is only a few years old and already it has trouble reading some of the newer DVDs (no, not Blueray), as well as copies I've burned on my computer. In fact even my older laptop can't read many of the DVDs burned on the newer tower. Someone told me it's because the newer hardware uses lasers with a narrower beam.

Like I said, planned obsolescence...
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 12:38:45

CDs aren't much better. Of course the plastic itself will last hundreds of years, so we won't be hard up for coasters. They recorded 78 RPM discs all over the world in the early years of the recording industry; in Central and East Asia sometimes you'd see shards of these records decorating yurts. One recording company in Indiana had the metal masters for making these records used to build shacks! Sic transit, baby.

I'm going to order some cassettes in bulk, there are 35 year old tapes that still do their thing.
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 12:50:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')I just checked the taps in our house. They all work. Is anybody reading this having trouble getting water?
Now Z that's like saying 'what peak oil energy crisis? Last I checked they've got gas at my local gas station.' We had another water main breakage today causing big traffic problems. There have been a rash of them and city officials blame the old pipes. This can only get worse because the pipes aren't getting any younger and never were intended to be still in use in 2007. The whole old system needs to be ripped up and replaced at a time when construction cost are inflating fast.
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby Zardoz » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 12:55:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('golem', 'c')rumbling infrastructures are a symptom of prophecy

That's not a real tough call to make: Stuff wears out, things fall down, daily wear and tear takes its inevitable toll.

Real profound "prophecy", huh? Gosh, who would have ever thought such a thing?
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Re: The Modern Paradox

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 13:10:02

I got your point about the Roman aqueducts requiring maintenance. I guess I could restate my point as this: the Roman technology system was able to last a thousand years whereas ours was built a hundred years ago and it's falling apart bit by bit. We don't have the means or the resources to replace it now. Just another facet of the gathering storm.
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