[MD]

For the past several years we have had endless attempts to identify quantity and timing of peak oil production. Most of those efforts have centered around below ground factors through trying to identify actual reserve quantities, new project development, and individual field depletion rates.

A myriad of mathematical models have been employed with endless curve fitting, historical comparisons, and data mining. The vast majority of conclusions point to a peak somewhere between now and thirty years from now, with a mean somewhere around 2015.

And yet production has been plateaued now for quite a few months, or a couple years, depending on what you include as "production". This has fueled more discussion mostly centered around revisiting previous efforts (the Export Land Model a primary exception).

I am proposing "systemic energy starvation" as a significant factor in explaining our current plateau. Our global energy consumption engine is designed to operate through burning sweet light crude, and has been for almost 100 years. The system loses efficiency as soon as you attempt to fuel it by other means, and therefore any efforts to change will be constrained by the very nature of the system.

This effect is unprecedented as this is the first time we have "hit the wall" globally with regard to sweet light production.

Here's a couple analogies to help us along in this discussion:

As a body begins to go hungry, energy is taken from the extremities and less critical functions first. This keeps it alive, but inhibits its ability to find new food.

An engine designed to run on gasoline will continue to function if you mix in small amounts of diesel fuel, but it won't be happy and it certainly won't reach maximum rpm.

I believe we are at peak now, and production will never exceed current levels, and now I've told you why. As I look around the world, I see energy starvation in the extremities. The body can't run any faster.

A simple premise. I look forward to your response.

[Jack]

I agree completely.

The analogy of starvation of the extremities is apt - and seems to be going into effect.

[sjn]

This is a manifestation of declining EROEI. I agree it's an apt analogy. We are going to start to metabolising our own muscles and organs to try to keep the brain going as long as possible, but at some point we're going to find ourselves missing something important.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'T')his is a manifestation of declining EROEI...

[halcyon]

I'm inclined to agree to some extent.

However, our gasoline tank is leaking, the engine hasn't had spark plugs changed, the battery is half dead and the lubrication is negligible.

Perhaps it is possible to increase some operational systemic engine efficiency through some well placed system upgrades, for a while.

This is what many are banking on and I cannot fully deny that such increases may exist.

However, they are not a fix, but a mere temporal band aid.

And once those band aids run out (i.e. stop producing efficiency gains and waste more energy), then the system really has hit a wall and there is no option, except to power down.

Now the remaining question is: where are those gains to be had, how big are they potentially and what is the smartest (least energy input/maximum output gain) way to reach and longest span to sustain them.

And, how do we spend the time given by this procedure (if any)?

[roccman]

Every year for the past 15 years I have fasted a week beginning on my birthday.

The first and last days seem to be the hardest.

The first day shocks the system that food has stopped coming into the body and the last day seems psychological as I look forward to eating again.

As you can imagine the energy level for each consecutive day is dramatically reduced and around the 5 day I feel fairly light headed.

While I know I could go another 20 plus days without food (the longest for me has been 10) the lack of food turns to a mental challenge to continue to think as clearly as I can yet to also do work. Both efforts are difficult.

I think as society starves itself moving forward - we will face similar challenges to stay mentally clear in the face of energy starvation yet to do those things (like gardening) that will provide energy for at least one more day.

[MD]

Well, I didn't expect to see the analogy carried that far . . . but day-umm pstarr! That's quite a picture you've painted there!

[bodigami]

Very well thought thread!

...I have just something to add: IMO, one of the biological subsystem that can be "cut" while keeping the system "alive" is reproduction. "venture capital" drying perhaps?

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', 'V')ery well thought thread!

...I have just something to add: IMO, one of the biological subsystem that can be "cut" while keeping the system "alive" is reproduction. "venture capital" drying perhaps?

[julianj]

A good new analaogy. Congratulations MD.

Parts of the infrastructure, for example North Sea oil rigs and pipelines, or US bridges, are not being renewed: perhaps like the cellular slowdown and decay detailed above

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('julianj', '.')..
Parts of the infrastructure, for example North Sea oil rigs and pipelines, or US bridges, are not being renewed: perhaps like the cellular slowdown and decay detailed above

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '.')..
A myriad of mathematical models have been employed with endless curve fitting, historical comparisons, and data mining. The vast majority of conclusions point to a peak somewhere between now and thirty years from now, with a mean somewhere around 2015.
...

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')
As PO approaches all these 3rd world nations will collapse and fail to maintain a standard of even $2/day. Forget about "millions"....imagine 3 Billion refugees on this planet trying to migrate somewhere else. Obviously the rest of the planet cannot absorb 3 billion people. The gates will be shut closed and the "lucky ones" will have to watch the weak die-off. Once that is done then it will be there turn. (but that won't come till later)

I think that will be a good "signal" that we have hit PO.

either that or you could look at the crude oil production figures.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')
As PO approaches all these 3rd world nations will collapse and fail to maintain a standard of even $2/day. Forget about "millions"....imagine 3 Billion refugees on this planet trying to migrate somewhere else. Obviously the rest of the planet cannot absorb 3 billion people. The gates will be shut closed and the "lucky ones" will have to watch the weak die-off. Once that is done then it will be there turn. (but that won't come till later)

I think that will be a good "signal" that we have hit PO.

either that or you could look at the crude oil production figures.

[Zardoz]

Let me add my kudos for your analogy, MD. That's a heck of a concept. Makes perfect sense.

We don't know the details of how all this will play out, and we don't have a countdown clock to watch, but there are many things that are quite predictable. Your scenario is pretty much certain to come to pass, I'm afraid.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '.')..
There will be a lot of that, but you all know my opinion that it has started with the bottom already and it will soon switch to the top energy consumers(meaning the US).
...

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '.')..

Maybe we have hit PO. But I'm not certain yet . . .

BTW I like to group 3rd world nations into 2 broad categories.

The second group is actually more "interesting". They almost always have a commodity based economy. It's not uncommon for some "unknown" 3rd world nation to be a supplier of perhaps 20% of the world supply of some critical commodity. For example 40% of the world's supply of cocoa beans (used for making chocolate) come from this 1 west African nation that most Americans wouldn't be able to point on a map. Just wait till we get $100 oil and some of these poor nations start folding and I guarantee there will be some military deployments to ensure the commodities keep flowing.

I think too many people forget that the world needs more then just oil to operate. A 20% drop in supply of just about ANYTHING let it be tin metal or natural rubber would throw the world economy into chaos.

my 2 cents

[bodigami]

cheers, MD for your analogies

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '.')..
A myriad of mathematical models have been employed with endless curve fitting, historical comparisons, and data mining. The vast majority of conclusions point to a peak somewhere between now and thirty years from now, with a mean somewhere around 2015.
...