[ClassicSpiderman]

Looking at various oil production charts from here and theoildrum, there are always periods where there are plateaus and drops in production, but the trend has always been upward.

While I'm 90% certain that we are at peak right now, I think it's still possible that production can ramp up once again as it did in the past.

Anyway, just a silly poll to get a discussion going.

[julianj]

Several speakers at ASPO conference in Cork recently seemed to think that we would reach 90 or 95 m bpd, but I can't see it myself if you factor in declines, the new megaprojects coming on line which seem to be slipping or not delivering as much as promised, and of course the Export Land Model in which domestic consumption increases leaving less for export.

[Revi]

I think we'll reach 90 mbpd, but only when you include all the plastic and turkey guts we render into oil through depolymerization. We are down to burning up everything flammable already. The peak has happened.

[Cobra_Strike]

Are you willing to count trees as barrel of oil equivalent? How about people and office furniture?

If you make the measure broad enough I am sure that nuclear weapons have energy that could be added in.

In my opinion we will be using that much energy even if nothing else happens.

[Tyler_JC]

90 million barrels per day?

I don't think its beyond the realm of possibility.

But 100, 110, 120....not going to happen.

Regardless of how much oil we are capable of producing, we may never reach (or need to reach) the 90 million barrels per day mark because the coming recession is going to knock out a LOT of oil demand, screwing up Peak Oil projections for at least a decade.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think we'll reach 90 mbpd, but only when you include all the plastic and turkey guts we render into oil through depolymerization. We are down to burning up everything flammable already. The peak has happened.

[Nicholai]

Push more nitrogen into Cantarel and more salt water into Gwahar and you'll get your 90 million BUT a friendly decline rate of something like 30% since it's already 13% as is in Cantarel. Pervert the natural depletion rate and you get an oil CRASH WOOOT! No more Paris Hilton, praise the Lord. (Caution: The Lord does not actually exist so don't waste precious energy praying to him.)

[SILENTTODD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', ' ')Pervert the natural depletion rate and you get an oil CRASH WOOOT! No more Paris Hilton

[whereagles]

Though I'm not an expert, I would say 90 mbd is definitely possible, maybe even more.

But such an high flow rate is known to cause damage to reservoirs, thus reducing the URR. I don't think companies are willing to do that, so it's likely we'll never see that much production.

[Zardoz]

Nope. We'll never see 88. We've maxed out and now we're in a barely-perceptible decline.

It'll become more and more perceptible as time goes by.

[Concerned]

Considering we are using biofuels, Tar Sands, LNG et el.. in calculating BOE I don't think we can get 90mpd.

Plateau to about 2012 then steep declines.