[skyemoor]

Some attendees at Cork noted that a number of presenters thought production could reach 100mb, and the peak date of 2020 was predicted. Anyone else hear the same thing and know who said what?

[americandream]

Why not 120mb...or 200 mb for that matter?

[raober]

Okay...when did we start measuring oil in millibars?

I haven't been PO aware long, but even I know that 100 mbpd ain't gonna happen.

[mkwin]

The guy who suggested that at ASPO was a PFC anaylst who had just undertaken a comprehensive supply forecast.

He was pretty optimistic on Russia and heavy oil. I was under the impression Russia was topping out but he is the expert and had access to the data so who knows.

[Graeme]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he case for a plateau in global oil production of less than 100M barrels/day before 2020 was put by Ray Leonard, Vice President (Eurasia) of Kuwait Energy Company, who presented a summary of the results from the Hedberg Conference [3]. The Hedberg conference concluded that there were about 250 B barrels of conventional oil yet-to-find, 200 -1000 B barrels will be available from reserves growth, and future production from unconventional oil [4] is unlikely to exceed 6 Mb/d. Taking all these factors into account, Leonard forecast that global oil production will plateau at less than 100 M barrels/ day before 2020. This forecast was reiterated by Mike Rodgers, Senior Partner with the highly respected US-based energy consultancy PFC Energy.

[Madpaddy]

The above is all true. Global oil production will plateau at less than 100m barrels per day before 2020.

In fact it did plateau at 85mbpd in 2006. That is before 2020 and is less than 100mbpd.

[skyemoor]

Thanks Graeme, this puts it in the proper perspective.

[TonyPrep]

Why is it assumed that the yet-to-find 250 billion barrels will all be found in the near term, allowing some further production increases? If those extra barrels are found in tiny increments over the next 50 years, for example, surely they would have no, or little, effect on the peak date.

With a plateau over the last couple of years (and the associated declines in producing fields during that time) at around 85 mbpd, is there really much chance of reaching anywhere near 100 mbpd?

[Graeme]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he second group agreed with the reserve figures quoted, but said that due to constraints in implementing new projects such as lack of skilled staff, resource nationalism and oil depletion, global oil production was likely to peak rather than plateau no later than 2011.

Now that this analysis is backed up by the IEA’s recent forecast that we are facing a global supply crunch by 2012, we have to start asking why our governments are not treating the oil supply issue with an increased sense of urgency.”

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')hy is it assumed that the yet-to-find 250 billion barrels will all be found in the near term, allowing some further production increases? If those extra barrels are found in tiny increments over the next 50 years, for example, surely they would have no, or little, effect on the peak date.

With a plateau over the last couple of years (and the associated declines in producing fields during that time) at around 85 mbpd, is there really much chance of reaching anywhere near 100 mbpd?

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')hy is it assumed that the yet-to-find 250 billion barrels will all be found in the near term, allowing some further production increases? If those extra barrels are found in tiny increments over the next 50 years, for example, surely they would have no, or little, effect on the peak date.

With a plateau over the last couple of years (and the associated declines in producing fields during that time) at around 85 mbpd, is there really much chance of reaching anywhere near 100 mbpd?

[peripato]

So let me picture this. Existing production is declining by around 4 to 5% p.a which means we must find and replace over 40 million barrels of oil per day, plus produce at least an additional 15 to 20 million barrels per day to keep up with the then projected demand in 2020. Hmmm....it looks like they just forecast what the likely demand would be by then and worked backwards from there.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', ' ')increase, until all 250 billion barrels are discovered?

What I was querying was whether those 250 billion barrels of yet-to-be discovered oil will be discovered at a rate sufficient to help increase production or to otherwise affect the peak date. There appears to be an assumption that they will, but why? It could be that the best they can do is slow the decline.

[aahala]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Madpaddy', 'T')he above is all true. Global oil production will plateau at less than 100m barrels per day before 2020.

In fact it did plateau at 85mbpd in 2006. That is before 2020 and is less than 100mbpd.

[Madpaddy]

aahala,

Read it and weep baby.

BP Statistical Energy Review [converted long URL to link - skyemoor]
Production – barrels'!A1

It doesn't prove conclusively that oil peaked in 2006 but you can see the tail off in oil production increases. Sorry that the charts are awkward to view.

If you go to the tab oil production barrels, you can see that from 2003 to 2004, production increased from 77mbpd to 80mbpd. From 2005 to 2006, production increased from 81.25mbpd to 81.63mbpd, a very slight increase.

Meanwhile if you go to the oil consumption tab, you can see that from 2003 to 2006, consumption increased from 79mbpd to 83.79mbpd.

Note:Differences between these world consumption figures and world production statistics are accounted for by stock changes, consumption of non-petroleum additives.

But basically, our consumption habit is writing cheques our production can't cash (to paraphrase some movie that I can't remember)

[aahala]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Madpaddy', 'a')ahala,

Read it and weep baby.

[Madpaddy]

aahala,

You are right of course.

It is my strongly held opinion that oil production will never exceed the production level of 2006.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Madpaddy', 'I')t is my strongly held opinion that oil production will never exceed the production level of 2006.

[Smudger]

The film quote is from Top Gun "son your ego is writing cheques your body can't cash"

I believe we are on a plateau and think the real drops will begin 2008-2012. A wide window but never underestimate human efforts to keep things going if at all possible.

[Madpaddy]

Thanks Smudger,

Top Gun - the movie that caused me to pursue a career as a pilot which was never fulfilled. Got my PPL but that was it. How could I forget. I thought it might have been "An Officer and a Gentleman" but thanks for that.

I'll check out that report gnm.