[mel1962]

Below is EIA, daily monthly average of oil supply

World Oil Supply in thousand of barrels

2001 January 78,181
2001 February 78,053
2001 March 78,765
2001 April 77,766
2001 May 77,264
2001 June 75,867
2001 July 77,866
2001 August 78,106
2001 September 77,626
2001 October 77,577
2001 November 77,864
2001 December 77,257
2002 January 76,395
2002 February 76,521
2002 March 76,314
2002 April 75,878
2002 May 76,724
2002 June 76,527
2002 July 76,995
2002 August 76,796
2002 September 77,336
2002 October 78,764
2002 November 78,867
2002 December 76,795
2003 January 77,316
2003 February 79,057
2003 March 79,535
2003 April 78,491
2003 May 78,673
2003 June 78,028
2003 July 78,903
2003 August 79,455
2003 September 80,360
2003 October 81,294
2003 November 81,464
2003 December 82,751
2004 January 82,206
2004 February 82,206
2004 March 81,992
2004 April 81,841
2004 May 81,595
2004 June 83,582
2004 July 84,178
2004 August 83,222
2004 September 83,795
2004 October 84,601
2004 November 84,402
2004 December 83,850
2005 January 84,060
2005 February 84,438
2005 March 84,566
2005 April 84,958
2005 May 85,379
2005 June 84,897
2005 July 84,533
2005 August 84,847
2005 September 84,151
2005 October 84,146
2005 November 84,894
2005 December 84,702
2006 January 84,525
2006 February 84,524
2006 March 84,061
2006 April 84,383
2006 May 84,235
2006 June 84,208
2006 July 85,540
2006 August 85,303
2006 September 84,889
2006 October 85,135
2006 November 84,585
2006 December 84,382
2007 January 84,021
2007 February 84,344
2007 March 84,114
2007 April 84,591
2007 May 84,354
2007 June 84,501

As you can see, July 2006 was the "peak" of daily monthly average production of 85,540,000 barrels per day.

To me July 2006 is the "benchmark" to measure the data against. Not since October 2006 have we been over 85,000,000 barrels per day!

The question is this benchmark created from supply or demand?

or

Is Peak Oil really here!

We are just seeing it in the rear mirror?

[Bas]

I would agree with that, but there's still a chance we might surpass that later, or that rather than a month, we might have a quarter or a year with an higher average production. Also you have a number of people who rather look at conventional production which peaked in May 2005 thusfar (I believe)

[gn0s1s]

In the data I have seen, it too points to May 2005. The numbers you are showing may be a combination of Crude + NatGas, etc...
Which, I find misleading, it hides the true number everyone cares about: crude.

Anyways, even *if* another small "peak" were to come around that is higher than the values we saw in May 2005, or July 2006, it still would only be an anomaly. A peak for a month or two only, nothing sustained, just temporary.

From far away, hubberts peak looks like a smooth line, but at closer inspection and using real life data, it is bumpy. We are on a downslope now, the other side of the curve, and it may have bumpy ups and downs, but it still doesn't reverse the fact that the overall trend is negative.

[mel1962]

I was under the impression that the May 2005 "peak" was for light stuff? Regardless, the 4 highest months of production are May '05, July '06, August '06 and October '06. It appears that the peak has occurred, more so in late '06 and we are looking at in the rear view mirror.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', 'I') was under the impression that the May 2005 "peak" was for light stuff? Regardless, the 4 highest months of production are May '05, July '06, August '06 and October '06. It appears that the peak has occurred, more so in late '06 and we are looking at in the rear view mirror.

[NeoLotus]

Well, if you look at this report it would seem that all of you are correct.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3001

[DantesPeak]

I want to point out - again - that all liquids includes biofuels. Mainly because of the possibility of even greater production of ethanol, I won't say that we have certainly passed the absolute peak in all liquids - but that looks more likely than not. Even then, it seems that increased biofuel production would only be sustained while oil is relatively cheap.

We discussed here the passing of peak of light sweet crude about May 2005, back in 2005. That still looks like a valid conclusion.

To generalize, to stay on this production plateau for two years, we have been replacing more of the good stuff with lesser quality stuff and natural gas liquids.

We are also about one year past peak of world demand exceeding world supply. That is - incremental demand is now being met by inventory drawdowns

[Micki]

The reason why not to jump the gun and declare PO is for the following reason;
Look at the data from May05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')005 May 85,379
2005 June 84,897
2005 July 84,533
2005 August 84,847
2005 September 84,151
2005 October 84,146
2005 November 84,894
2005 December 84,702
2006 January 84,525
2006 February 84,524
2006 March 84,061
2006 April 84,383
2006 May 84,235
2006 June 84,208

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I') want to point out - again - that all liquids includes biofuels. Mainly because of the possibility of even greater production of ethanol, I won't say that we have certainly passed the absolute peak in all liquids - but that looks more likely than not. Even then, it seems that increased biofuel production would only be sustained while oil is relatively cheap.

We discussed here the passing of peak of light sweet crude about May 2005, back in 2005. That still looks like a valid conclusion.

To generalize, to stay on this production plateau for two years, we have been replacing more of the good stuff with lesser quality stuff and natural gas liquids.

We are also about one year past peak of world demand exceeding world supply. That is - incremental demand is now being met by inventory drawdowns

[static66]

You will see from my join date that it is indeed the absolute Peak in Production and we will not see that level reached again. Read my post on "OPEC needs to show their cards" and you will see that the whore of the middle east is shutting her legs and closing up shop soon... Ghawar is indeed dying and Mexico is on her last legs too... you can't make up for that production... no matter how fast your deep-drilling technology advances in the abiotic oil from the center of the f-in planet!! The answer to your post question is Yes.

[mel1962]

Thanks for the response and good points by all.

My main point is that we need to have a bench mark for arguments sake with others who like to deny reality.

Maybe this bench mark will be surpassed, but the longer it remains the greater the probability that PO is here! IMHO!

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I') want to point out - again - that all liquids includes biofuels. Mainly because of the possibility of even greater production of ethanol, I won't say that we have certainly passed the absolute peak in all liquids - but that looks more likely than not. Even then, it seems that increased biofuel production would only be sustained while oil is relatively cheap.

We discussed here the passing of peak of light sweet crude about May 2005, back in 2005. That still looks like a valid conclusion.

To generalize, to stay on this production plateau for two years, we have been replacing more of the good stuff with lesser quality stuff and natural gas liquids.

We are also about one year past peak of world demand exceeding world supply. That is - incremental demand is now being met by inventory drawdowns

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')
This is what the EIA says about their figures:

Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gains, alcohol.

Basically they are saying that most any liquid that comes out of refinery is 'supply'. Technically, ethanol and other biofuels are only counted when they actually arrive at the refinery where they will be mixed with mostly finished gasoline.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')
This is what the EIA says about their figures:

Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gains, alcohol.

Basically they are saying that most any liquid that comes out of refinery is 'supply'. Technically, ethanol and other biofuels are only counted when they actually arrive at the refinery where they will be mixed with mostly finished gasoline.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Will probably take around 5 years to know. Would also be helpful to calculate yearly averages, running averages, standard deviations etc.
g

[ClassicSpiderman]

I agree that it will take a few years before we know there is a definite answer in regards to the true peak oil date.

If one looks at the production data that was posted--up until November 2002, it looked like March 2001 was the definitive peak oil date.

[mel1962]

The July 2007 figure is in at 84,954, a large increase from June 2007. It will be interesting to see if they can get production up over the 85,540 figure for July '06! Stay tune, but by the price of oil I don't believe production is being ramped up nearly enough!

[Cobra_Strike]

And during all this time, even with production flat to slightly negative, demand has continued to rise.

Even meeting the previous high is not enough now, it needs to be surpassed by enough to actually be even with demand.

[mel1962]

More hand writing on the wall? US supplies are down!

Oil Supplies down!

I am slowing getting a tightening in my gut.

War drums beating with US/Iran and Turkey/Iraq, is this the beginning of resource wars??

Record metal prices, dollar in the dumper and the bubble heads on idiot vision can't figure it out . . . priceless!

sorry for the rant, but it is frustrating when your one of the few that see and hear the train coming down the tracks and no one wants to listen!

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', 'M')ore hand writing on the wall? US supplies are down!

Oil Supplies down!

I am slowing getting a tightening in my gut.

War drums beating with US/Iran and Turkey/Iraq, is this the beginning of resource wars??

Record metal prices, dollar in the dumper and the bubble heads on idiot vision can't figure it out . . . priceless!

sorry for the rant, but it is frustrating when your one of the few that see and hear the train coming down the tracks and no one wants to listen!