PeakOil is You
THE Daniel Yergin Thread (merged)
Re: July 13, 2006 is Daniel Yergin Day
by Eman_0417 » Fri 14 Jul 2006, 02:00:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MSNBC.com', '')Oil has become a proxy for geopolitics right now,” said Daniel Yergin, who heads Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Yergin said petroleum supply-demand fundamentals are improving, with global oil inventories and spare oil-production capacity rising, but clearly not enough to offset the geopolitical unrest.
Don't worry, it's just political.LoL, yeah the guy is smart, but just like in schizophrenia, intelligence doesn't lessen the likleyhood of paranoid delusions. However, i do believe that at this time geopolitics play a major roll in the price of oil. One interesting thing about the price of oil that i in some respects appreciate, is that it is like an opinion poll. People place bets on whether the geopolitical topic of the day/week/month will esacalate, or stabalize. By monitoring the price of oil and the political events behind it (taking into account the geology behind it of course), one may be able to make accurate predictions of the fututre based on the sentiments of TPTB.
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Re: Yergin is yerking us around again!
by mekrob » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 15:35:01
25% in 8 and a half years? That's more than 21 million barrels per day capacity. So by the middle of next year, we should be bringing on an additional 2.5 mpd. How have we been doing for the past 12 months? A whopping 0.00003 mpd!!! Why doubt this guy?
Last edited by Ferretlover on Thu 19 Feb 2009, 10:28:32, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Daniel Yergin Thread.
Reason: Merged with THE Daniel Yergin Thread.
I want to put out the fires of Hell, and burn down the rewards of Paradise. They block the way to God. I do not want to worship from fear of punishment or for the promise of reward, but simply for the love of God. - Rabia
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Re: Yergin is yerking us around again!
by rockdoc123 » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 18:20:27
Outside of the conspiracy theory rants have you had actual access to the CERA study? I for one would hold off beaking off about how invalid it is until I actually read it and had a chance to digest key forward production figures for various areas of importance.
I haven't got a hold of the full report yet but a link to an expanded description is given on their website:
Cera analysis
Their analysis of upcoming production additions is more or less bang on from what I have seen elsewhere (press releases, IHS Energy news, company reports). What can't be gained without benefit of the whole study is the depletion rate they are using for various fields. Looking at their graph in the "abstract" the amount of production accounted for by heavier crudes is not as important as the lighter fractions in getting to the suggested 110 MMBpd level. One could even argue that their analysis of new light additions is slightly pessimistic given that they only give credit for Khurais phase 1 which accounts for only 10% of the total maximum daily rate expected from the field at its plateau.
Remember they are talking about capacity and not actual production which they agree can be limited from time to time for a number of political or economic factors. They aren't arguing against peak oil, they are just saying there is no basis for saying we are at peak now given the projects which are coming on stream.
I haven't got a hold of the full report yet but a link to an expanded description is given on their website:
Cera analysis
Their analysis of upcoming production additions is more or less bang on from what I have seen elsewhere (press releases, IHS Energy news, company reports). What can't be gained without benefit of the whole study is the depletion rate they are using for various fields. Looking at their graph in the "abstract" the amount of production accounted for by heavier crudes is not as important as the lighter fractions in getting to the suggested 110 MMBpd level. One could even argue that their analysis of new light additions is slightly pessimistic given that they only give credit for Khurais phase 1 which accounts for only 10% of the total maximum daily rate expected from the field at its plateau.
Remember they are talking about capacity and not actual production which they agree can be limited from time to time for a number of political or economic factors. They aren't arguing against peak oil, they are just saying there is no basis for saying we are at peak now given the projects which are coming on stream.
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Re: Yergin is yerking us around again!
by rockdoc123 » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 11:16:32
The actual report costs a wee bit of dosh....I've got our library folks accessing a corporate version so should see it in the next few days.
The important point here is that Campbell and Defeynes have not been paying attention to the projects that are sitting in the wings...these are all projects that have had considerable investment poured into them so definitely not "etherware".
The key thing to look at is what depletion rates are being used in the main fields. This is always somewhat subjective but telling. If you're looking for arguments that is probably where they will come.
Also realize that the projection CERA is coming up with at least to 2015 is darned close to the independant analysis conducted by Wood Mackenzie. And also know that the parent company for CERA is IHS Energy. IHS Energy has a host of people with tons of upstream and downstream experience working for them, including geoscientists and engineers. Yergin notes in his prelude that the IHS Energy data is what governs their analysis.
Campbell and Defeynes have both stated their analyses were based on Petroconsultants database which was the previous incarnation of IHS Energy. Unfortunately their database is a number of years out of date, simply because as consultants they can't afford the service.
The important point here is that Campbell and Defeynes have not been paying attention to the projects that are sitting in the wings...these are all projects that have had considerable investment poured into them so definitely not "etherware".
The key thing to look at is what depletion rates are being used in the main fields. This is always somewhat subjective but telling. If you're looking for arguments that is probably where they will come.
Also realize that the projection CERA is coming up with at least to 2015 is darned close to the independant analysis conducted by Wood Mackenzie. And also know that the parent company for CERA is IHS Energy. IHS Energy has a host of people with tons of upstream and downstream experience working for them, including geoscientists and engineers. Yergin notes in his prelude that the IHS Energy data is what governs their analysis.
Campbell and Defeynes have both stated their analyses were based on Petroconsultants database which was the previous incarnation of IHS Energy. Unfortunately their database is a number of years out of date, simply because as consultants they can't afford the service.
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Re: Yergin is yerking us around again!
by mekrob » Thu 10 Aug 2006, 12:15:49
I look forward to the full analysis, but...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')emember they are talking about capacity and not actual production which they agree can be limited from time to time for a number of political or economic factors.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')emember they are talking about capacity and not actual production which they agree can be limited from time to time for a number of political or economic factors.
That's all true, but this can be completely manipulated. They can always come out and say "Capacity is increasing here and here and there" when in fact production is down and continues to be down. This allows for continued denial and blame (Russians, Saudis, Iranians, Nigerians, Chinese, etc). The worst part about this is that it can easily lead people into this continued mindset that everything will be well and that it isn't our lifestyles that are out of whack, but instead 'others' (Russians, Saudis, Iranians, Nigerians, Chinese, etc) and can thus lead to the manipulation of the people for resource wars and getting rid of environmental legislation and protections. "The capacity is there, it's just xxx and xxx won't let us have it because they don't like freedom."
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve got our library folks accessing a corporate version so should see it in the next few days.
It wouldn't be illegal to share quotes and some data with others outside your business, would it?
I want to put out the fires of Hell, and burn down the rewards of Paradise. They block the way to God. I do not want to worship from fear of punishment or for the promise of reward, but simply for the love of God. - Rabia
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