[Beau]

Hi all,

Rather than rely on the speculation about this topic, I thought I'd do the math myself with the available data. BP indicated this year that we have 40 years worth of proven oil reserves at current consumption rates. If the world economy grows at a modest 3% per year and oil consumption increases at the same rate with it, everything will be gone by 2034, period. A peak will therefore come between now and then. It's time to start placing your bets. Comments are welcome.

Beau.

[mkwin]

All liquids peak 2012 (+/- 2 years)

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beau', 'H')i all,

Rather than rely on the speculation about this topic, I thought I'd do the math myself with the available data. BP indicated this year that we have 40 years worth of proven oil reserves at current consumption rates. If the world economy grows at a modest 3% per year and oil consumption increases at the same rate with it, everything will be gone by 2034, period. A peak will therefore come between now and then. It's time to start placing your bets. Comments are welcome.

Beau.

[aahala]

Beau

The problem with your math is that for several decades the
"official" reserve figures have grown nearly every year faster
than consumption. Of course we know, unlike the general
public, this idea is a stinking pile of horse sh**.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', '[')b]Beau

The problem with your math is that for several decades the
"official" reserve figures have grown nearly every year faster
than consumption. Of course we know, unlike the general
public, this idea is a stinking pile of horse sh**.

[aahala]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', '[')b]Beau

The problem with your math is that for several decades the
"official" reserve figures have grown nearly every year faster
than consumption. Of course we know, unlike the general
public, this idea is a stinking pile of horse sh**.

[pitbull]

Yes, the figure of oil left in the ground is finite. However, reserves are based on what we discover in the ground, and what we assume is recoverable. A reserve isn't how much oil is in the ground at one location, it is generally how much oil is recoverable at that time using today's technology.A reserve may initally be labeled as 1 billion barrels, and have 300,000 pumped out of it. Then, a new technology comes along that allows them to recover an additional 500,000 barrels from that well, so the reserve would then be reported as 1.2 billion. These figures are made up, but thats the basic idea behind how reserves grow.

If memory serves me correct, reserves also grow for member countries of OPEC because they want to be able to produce more oil than currently allowed (quota), and their production is limited to a precentage of the amount of oil available in the ground. So, if their quota is 10% per year (I'm totally guessing here), and they have 100,000 barrels, Year one, they pump 10,000, year two they are limited to 9,000, year 3 8,100, and so on. However, they don't want to lose the $$ from decrease in production, so they may cook the books to show they have found more oil or that they can recover more. This is all speculation however.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pitbull', 'Y')es, the figure of oil left in the ground is finite. However, reserves are based on what we discover in the ground, and what we assume is recoverable. A reserve isn't how much oil is in the ground at one location, it is generally how much oil is recoverable at that time using today's technology.A reserve may initally be labeled as 1 billion barrels, and have 300,000 pumped out of it. Then, a new technology comes along that allows them to recover an additional 500,000 barrels from that well, so the reserve would then be reported as 1.2 billion. These figures are made up, but thats the basic idea behind how reserves grow...

[Plantagenet]

The US has peaked, Mexico has peaked, Norway has peaked, Britain's North Sea has peaked, etc. etc.

The only places left that haven't peaked are the middle east and Russia, and possible frontier regions like the Arctic Ocean or Antarctica.

[gnm]

Many ME countries have peaked (Iran,Kuwait for instance) and there is a lot of evidence that suggests that Russia and KSA have peaked also and therefore the world. It should be quite evident by the end of next year.

Katy bar the door.

-G

[emailking]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beau', '
')
Rather than rely on the speculation about this topic, I thought I'd do the math myself with the available data. BP indicated this year that we have 40 years worth of proven oil reserves at current consumption rates. If the world economy grows at a modest 3% per year and oil consumption increases at the same rate with it, everything will be gone by 2034, period. A peak will therefore come between now and then. It's time to start placing your bets. Comments are welcome.