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worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Are we now in real decline (total liquids)?

Yes - we are now past peak oil.
52
No votes
No - we can still see higher average production figures for 2007 or in the future, than for previous years.
18
No votes
 
Total votes : 70

Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby Curlew » Mon 10 Sep 2007, 16:24:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('phaeryen', 'A')s a collective, we, as human beings, are consuming and thus needing MORE OIL while due to circumstances brought upon us by the world we live in we are producing LESS OIL than the year before. Do you require any more proof to validate doomerosity than that?

BUT

While there are individuals in India and China buying new cars (probably small efficient jobs) some in the west are trading in our 10-15 yr old guzzlers for modern economic motors because it was time to renew or because of the increasing price of fuel.

I traded in an Alfa Romeo for a little Peugeot this May - because of Peak Oil.
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 10 Sep 2007, 16:29:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Curlew', '
')I traded in an Alfa Romeo for a little Peugeot this May - because of Peak Oil.


Did you happen to drop off your old car at the junkyard? Because if you didn't, I'm guessing that someone just purchased their first car and is adding to the overall amount of oil being burned every day.

BTW, I bought a diesel Jetta last year that gets 2x the MPG of my old car, but I don't kid myself by thinking I am forestalling peak oil or anything.
Last edited by emersonbiggins on Mon 10 Sep 2007, 16:30:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby Twilight » Mon 10 Sep 2007, 16:30:12

Does your conservation scale?

Conservation in the West does not impress me, and talk (and evidence in front of my own eyes) around me is that the British are buying into SUVs and full-size American pickups like never before. In the case of pickups, literally like never before. You couldn't stroll into a dealership and buy the stuff that has appeared on the road this year.

The thing about oil demand in the ME Gulf, India and China is also the sheer size of population. That demand growth is only just taking off, let's wait a few years and see what the situation is then.
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 10 Sep 2007, 16:52:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'I') know its all a terrible blow to those of us who bought into the quick dieoff, but it sure looks so far like the "market will make do" types are winning the arguement. I'm cancelling my subscription to 'FromTheWilderness" immediately, summer is over, and we STILL don't have our Gorge.


Two frogs sit in a pan of water as it slowly heats up.

"I thought they were going to cook us. This doesn't feel all that hot. It's kind of like a frog hot tub really. I kind of like it," the first frog says.

"Yeah, I think everything is going to be okay. If I had ever thought for a second that they were cooking us I would have jumped right out of this pan. I'm not an idiot after all," the other frog replies.

"Me neither."

"Yeah, we're just a couple of frogs hanging out at the spa, just kicking it in the sauna, right?"

"Yeah."

"Just taking it easy, resting our tired frog bones."

"Yeah."

"Maybe we'll meet some lady frogs--"

"Sorry to interrupt, but it's starting to feel really hot in here."
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby timbo » Mon 10 Sep 2007, 17:53:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '
')Is my reaction, to the above comments, wrong?:

production-prices: Shouldn't prices go higher and higher as production declines?


If $70-80 a barrel is enough to cause demand destruction in Africa, i.e. they just can't afford to buy it, then we have a bit of a wait until production drops enough and the price goes up enough to cause demand destruction elsewhere.

Although maybe the coming recession in the U.S. will cause enough demand destruction for the time being that we won't see the next real hike, $100-$120, for a while yet.
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby whereagles » Mon 10 Sep 2007, 19:39:35

zardoz is gonna have some avatar competition now.. lol
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby Chuckmak » Tue 11 Sep 2007, 23:04:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Curlew', '
')I traded in an Alfa Romeo for a little Peugeot this May - because of Peak Oil.


Did you happen to drop off your old car at the junkyard? Because if you didn't, I'm guessing that someone just purchased their first car and is adding to the overall amount of oil being burned every day.

BTW, I bought a diesel Jetta last year that gets 2x the MPG of my old car, but I don't kid myself by thinking I am forestalling peak oil or anything.


well i just bought a honda civic...my chevy blazer gave out after 100,000 miles (which means it's at the junkyard). i just increased my fuel economy by 2.5 to 3 times...i'm the happiest person in the world!
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Wed 12 Sep 2007, 00:48:32

Hi folks.

Heard today from someone (an English or Scottish gentleman by birth) who used to work for Shell for quite a few years in Indonesia, Australia etc, that the world's natural gas supply is about 7x that of oil. However, most cars don't run on natural gas products, but crude oil-derived gasoline and deisel so transportation is still going to take a hit. He also stated that world oil production has peaked.

g
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby Sideous » Fri 14 Sep 2007, 08:08:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrMambo', 'l')ink to worldoil.com:

http://worldoil.com/INFOCENTER/STATISTI ... production

the table on the page shows production for june 2007 against may 2007 against averages for 2006 and 2005. And the numbers show that june production is lower than averages for 2005 and 2006 as well as for may.

Total Supply (world):
83.71 (June 2007)
84.27 (May 2007)
84.69 (Average 2006)
84.16 (Average 2005)

How come production is dropping while prices are so high? Shouldn't market forces "generate" more supply?

Isn't China and India consuming signifficantly more each year? What areas in the world have had to cut back on consumption to leave room for increases in chineese and indian oil consumption?

Interestingly enough I see that my homecountry (Norway) has one of the largest production drops over the period. We were close to 3 mb/d in 2005 and was over 2.5 mb/d in May, but in June we saw only 2.16 mb/d... from almost 3 to slightly above 2 since 2005 to now... thats pretty steep decline.


The figures that you have quoted are different to those stated within the table for total world. Take another look.
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby Bas » Fri 14 Sep 2007, 08:14:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sideous', '
')The figures that you have quoted are different to those stated within the table for total world. Take another look.


They seem to have updated the numbers; before they were what MrMambo quoted.

edit: they removed the may 2007 column and added a column for july 2007
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