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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

I'm taking this low oil price as an opportunity

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Unread postby oiless » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 00:27:10

Good enough.
We aren't getting anywhere here. We keep jumping back and forth, from country to country, from retail to production, from regulated pricing, (which only exists in five jurisdictions in Canada, none of which I've ever lived in) to market based pricing.
Unless you're more patient than I, you're about ready to bang your head on the keyboard.

Where are we talking about, US or Canada? I'm talking about Canada.

Which is it, regulated or market based?

What determines profit, production costs or selling price?

Is an oil company's production arm the same as it's wholesale arm?Is the retail arm the same as the other two, or are they separate companies within a corporation? How do they relate to each other? How is their billing and bookkeeping done?

What was that companies name...oh yah, Enron. Different commodity, but did they find it possible and profitable to manipulate prices?

20% tax? You lucky Americans, I wish! :)

In closing, I'm at sea, I've just come across a shipwreck. My boat will hold four passengers, plus myself. There are five men in the water. How much can I charge for a place on my boat?

Another boat comes along, also with four spots, the captain and I are good friends. There are now eight places for five men. How much can we charge? The same amount? Or did the price go down? (Hint: we can charge whatever we want to, we're selling something the consumer needs, and we can charge as much as they can afford.)
You will say that we will allow a bidding war between us which will lower the price, however if we have any savvy at all we will not allow that to happen.

(No I wouldn't charge someone for rescue, but this seems a better example to me than an auction.)
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Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 01:17:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oiless', ' ')(No I wouldn't charge someone for rescue, but this seems a better example to me than an auction.)


Visit a trading floor sometime and you will see how commodity prices are set.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Oil price up on US supply slump. Hello Peak Oil.

Unread postby KevO » Fri 07 Sep 2007, 06:24:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')S Energy Information Administration figures showed that American crude reserves had slumped by 3.9 million barrels in the week to 31 August. Analysts had expected a drop of about 2.2 million barrels.

Meanwhile petrol inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels.

The new head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the high oil prices were sending a message to Opec about the tightness of the market.

Nobuo Tanaka took over as head of the Paris-based agency at the start of the month.

"The price level is a signal. The market is still very tight, but our concern is what will happen in the future," he said.

He added that it was too early to judge what the effect of the turmoil in financial markets would be on demand for oil.

"We will have some kind of assessment by the end of the year."


so it begins in earnest.
Past peak we are.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6982100.stm

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il prices rose above $77 a barrel on Thursday as official data showed that US reserves of crude and petrol had fallen more heavily than expected.

Dwindling hopes of a rise in output from next week's meeting of producers cartel Opec, also pushed up prices.

October light sweet crude rose 57 cents to $76.30 a barrel having climbed above $77 earlier. Meanwhile Brent crude surged 43 cents to $74.77.

The rise is a move towards the record high of $78.77, seen on 1 August.

Gains were pared by data showing higher utilisation of US refineries.

'Tight market'
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Re: Oil price up on US supply slump. Hello Peak Oil.

Unread postby NEOPO » Fri 07 Sep 2007, 06:31:02

In related news Opec president says no shortage of oil so no worries :lol:
It is easier to enslave a people that wish to remain free then it is to free a people who wish to remain enslaved.
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Re: Oil price up on US supply slump. Hello Peak Oil.

Unread postby KevO » Fri 07 Sep 2007, 06:41:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'I')n related news Opec president says no shortage of oil so no worries :lol:


It is very obvious to me that there is no shortage of oil.
Luckily everybody else believes this and we all buy new cars because we must want to all partake in extreme sports such as rope less bungee jumping off a cliff.

The peak oil sceptics are growing by the day now in the UK with once peak oil advocates deciding to take the blue pill and join the ranks of said skeppers.

However, one way or another, we are going to know for certain this year and it all rests on whether OPEC will (can) increase. The US reserves will continue to slide.

The US want this so that, at some convenient moment soon, they will scare the shit out of their own public by saying,
'we all gonna die unless we fix this oil shortage problem and we need to get Iran and their oil as they as a memeber of OPEC are holding back our oil and before they get nukes '... sort of thing and the neocons get re-elected....so expect something rather big within 6 weeks.


you heard it here first 8)
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Re: Oil price up on US supply slump. Hello Peak Oil.

Unread postby Fishman » Fri 07 Sep 2007, 09:30:35

Perhaps an announcement at the next G7 meeting will be forthcoming.
Kevo, do these Neocons you speak of include the conservative leaders of Germany, France, and now Hilleary who states we'll be in Iraq a long time?
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Re: Oil price up on US supply slump. Hello Peak Oil.

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 07 Sep 2007, 09:34:06

I think you're reading too much into the "supply slump." It's probably just part of the endless short-term fluctuation.

We will only know with 20-20 hindsight when the peak occurred.
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Re: Oil price up on US supply slump. Hello Peak Oil.

Unread postby RdSnt » Fri 07 Sep 2007, 10:45:01

If you regard the political concerns from the perspective of global Realpolitik then the coordination of decisions by the first world countries becomes inevitable rather than sinister. Don't get me wrong, what is going on at the moment is evil and cowardly (I think those two words always go together). yet, what are the power elite to do?
Many of the decisions that must be made should have been implemented decades ago. It is way too late to do much of any about global warming.
Our Canadian Prime Minister, speaking in Australia today say he want's Canada to be a world leader in combating global warming by 2050. What?
Places like New York and London are going to be fighting to keep the water out in 30 years or less. The arctic will be ice free that majority of the year in 30 years.
To truthfully prepare for Peak Oil and global warming, now, will cause the collapse of the first world economies. Compound that with the imminent collapse of the US economy. The populations of these countries will become very violent if the leaders even try. No one is prepared and certainly few are willing to act.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fishman', 'P')erhaps an announcement at the next G7 meeting will be forthcoming.
Kevo, do these Neocons you speak of include the conservative leaders of Germany, France, and now Hilleary who states we'll be in Iraq a long time?
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a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
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Re: Oil price up on US supply slump. Hello Peak Oil.

Unread postby Nano » Fri 07 Sep 2007, 10:52:47

Peak oil will only be recognised when ALL oil production has stopped, probably around 2100 or 2200. Before that time, people will believe that OPEC or the oil majors or party X are 'holding back' the flow of oil for commercial or geostrategic power purposes.

Also, the major resource wars that will come soon will further cloud the picture: maybe after *they* are finished (around 2050?) then oil production can make a new peak? Who can say? The wars will certainly start that way: politicians saying that if only we can conquer a certain country then world oil production will increase again to new heights?

In short: I don't seriously believe peak oil will EVER be acknowledge by TPTB!

So better start practicing how to survive in a Kafkaian, Orwellian nightmare. Here is a tip: forget all about truth, ethics and morality, concentrate on greed and start kicking some heads in, literally or figuratively! But take care you don't get caught! Look to the Bush/Cheney clique on how to do this most effectively.
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Re: Oil price up on US supply slump. Hello Peak Oil.

Unread postby KevO » Fri 07 Sep 2007, 11:24:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', 'P')eak oil will only be recognised when ALL oil production has stopped, probably around 2100 or 2200. .


:!:
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Re: Oil price up on US supply slump. Hello Peak Oil.

Unread postby Nano » Fri 07 Sep 2007, 11:41:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', 'P')eak oil will only be recognised when ALL oil production has stopped, probably around 2100 or 2200. .


:!:


Find it hard to believe? For me it is simple, because I realise fully that the stupidity, naivete and illusion of man knows no bounds. An individual can be intelligent or wise, but a group of persons is eternally as clueless as a sack of potatoes, being driven exclusively by base stimulus response, if by any brain activity at all.

I've heard personally from the president of the Dutch oil company Shell that he sees no problem in oil supply well into the NEXT century! People will buy that sort of claptrap, simply because *people* are unable to think: only individuals can think. People will always believe what they need to believe to survive in their minds, no matter how ridiculous. That is why problems that transcend the individual *always* come to full fruition and subsequent disaster.

Mankind has demonstrated that it *never* learns from history. Automatically, that means it can *never* learn from models of the future, nomatter how rigourous such models are set up. That is why I believe that peak oil, being purely a model conclusion, will never be accepted. Always there will be fools or racketeers selling the message that a new peak is just around the corner, if only we ... (fill in ridiculous plan here)
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Re: Oil price up on US supply slump. Hello Peak Oil.

Unread postby Twilight » Fri 07 Sep 2007, 14:27:23

There is a limit to cooperative international realpolitik on peak oil, and the limit is this: between them the nations in that elite club make up almost all consumption. With a supply ceiling in place and descending, there is no-one to squeeze except each other.

In the medium to long term, international cooperation will diminish, not grow. Conspiracies will increasingly be unilateral. You can already see EU members growing increasingly rebellious in matters energy-related, and the UK is slowly waking up to the fact that its model cooperation is not being reciprocated. One sign of this will be the Large Combustion Plants Directive quietly becoming irrelevant. Anyone up for shutting down all their opted-out coal-fired power stations by 2015? Our needs were greater, they will say. And needless to say anyone betting on a break-up of French and German energy national champions will be disappointed.
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Re: Oil price up on US supply slump. Hello Peak Oil.

Unread postby billp » Fri 07 Sep 2007, 14:38:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')o expect something rather big within 6 weeks.


Maybe.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')apanese firm Nippon Oil is to start paying for Iranian oil in yen, rather than in US dollars


Look where
http://www.alineshat.com/PDF/Nojeh-LawSuit-Doc.pdf
is posted. http://www.alineshat.com

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.prosefights.org/nmlegal/dcvoid/dcvoid.htm#feehan3]Feehan3 criminal complaint affidavit[/url]

We paid for trials by jury. We made jury trial DEMANDs. But we have not gotten our trials by jury guaranteed inviolate by 7th amendment and rule 38. We have been cheated out of our money.

Judgments to deny us our guaranteed right are voidable under Rule 60(b)(4).

We will move to void at Tenth Circuit.

Please help get these unfortunate matters settled before they get FAR WORSE.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana is the largest known coal deposit in the United States with an estimated 550 billion tons of federally owned coal in the ground, but only 1.5 percent of it is currently available for mining, according to a new federal report.

The remainder is either off limits entirely because mining is prohibited by law, such as areas designated as wilderness, or is not being mined because the coal is unreachable or the land is being used for other purposes.

Greg Schaefer, spokesman for Arch Coal Inc., which operates two mines in the Powder River Basin, said the coal in the basin is shaped like a bathtub, with the edges near the land surface and then dropping deep underground in the middle.

‘‘That coal can be several thousand feet deep in the middle,’’ Schaefer said. ‘‘There’s no technology for that kind of operation.’’



http://www.prosefights.org/pnmelectric/pnmelectric.htm

And probably a bad EROEI.
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Oil price at $80 for first time ever

Unread postby Heineken » Wed 12 Sep 2007, 15:16:06

Today we reached the $80/bbl milestone so oft ruminated upon. It's happened without any corresponding ejaculation in the gasoline price. Also, it's occurred without the help of hurricanes or any other dramatic events, which obviously gives the event a lot more weight.

Marketwatch link
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Re: Oil at $80 for first time ever

Unread postby skyemoor » Wed 12 Sep 2007, 15:31:50

Certainly no US hurricane landing this year, but we did just have PEMEX shutdown their Yucatan facilities for a couple of days, which took some production offline. Gas prices will adjust roughly as the oil purchased at that price is refined and shows up at the pump. Of course, there are other factors to the price...
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Re: Oil at $80 for first time ever

Unread postby jedinvest » Wed 12 Sep 2007, 15:38:31

What if the invasion of Iraq had gone as planned?? (Maybe, this is a high-jack of this thread and, maybe, there already is a thread on this topic??) Would it be that our 'way of life' would not be in the process of being compromised (according to Cheney), at least, not yet?

So if Iraq would be pumping their oil to us. Oil would be at, maybe, $40 or $50, or perhaps not as the infrastructure buildup would take years. So, maybe, all a successful invasion of Iraq would have accomplished is to delay peak oil, or plateau peak oil, another five years or so as their production ramped up. Anyone thought about this?
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Re: Oil at $80 for first time ever

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 12 Sep 2007, 15:47:45

The invasion of Iraq has done exactly what Chens4w d1ck, by his own admission, thought it would do. Destabilize the region, and, in a surprisingly beneficial side effect, drove up the price of crude significantly. Look at the price of a barrel before 9/11 and the invasion, then look at the price after. You figure out the profit over the past few years, then compare it to the amount spent getting B&C into office in 00 and 04. Excellent ROI if I do say so myself. :-D
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Oil at $80 for first time ever

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 12 Sep 2007, 16:08:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')he invasion of Iraq has done exactly what Chens4w d1ck, by his own admission, thought it would do. Destabilize the region, and, in a surprisingly beneficial side effect, drove up the price of crude significantly. Look at the price of a barrel before 9/11 and the invasion, then look at the price after. You figure out the profit over the past few years, then compare it to the amount spent getting B&C into office in 00 and 04. Excellent ROI if I do say so myself. :-D


Geez--You mean it's not all about depleting reserves?? :lol: :lol:
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Re: Oil at $80 for first time ever

Unread postby seldom_seen » Wed 12 Sep 2007, 16:49:04

It seems we'll never reach the inflation adjusted high of 1980. It will always be just out of reach, receding over the horizon.

It was $70.00, then $80.00, now it's like $107.00.

Remember, that no matter how bad things get. Oil will never be expensive as it was in 1980.
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Re: Oil at $80 for first time ever

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 12 Sep 2007, 16:57:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'G')eez--You mean it's not all about depleting reserves?? :lol: :lol:
If by depleting reserves you mean a load of cash, then yes. :razz:
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