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Antidoomer Porn

How to save energy through both societal and individual actions.

Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 03 Sep 2007, 18:03:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Offshore', 'Y')ou guys don't even want solutions. It's hilarious.

I post about a solar powered luxury home and instead of focusing on the solar power solution you say it's a luxury home therefore it's too expensive. I can see the Doomer slogan now: "Saving the Earth; it's too expensive." But what will the environmentalists say? LMAO.


Don't get us wrong we would love some "solutions" its just that you have NOT GIVEN US ANY!

That solar home and hydrogen BMW are NOT solutions to our energy problems. In fact they are more unsustainable that what we are running as is evidenced by their price tags and expensive oil other resources will not make them cheaper.
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby JPL » Mon 03 Sep 2007, 18:28:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grifter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Setite', 'I')ts the age old "technology wont save us" argument. Even tho technology has been "saving" us ever since humans invented the spear and the axe to hunt with. Without technology, we would have died out milennia ago. The idea of dieoff and armageddon is too sexy to let go, even tho we are at least 2 years past peak and none of this has happened yet....
Wow. Thanks for clearing that up for me. I didn't know that technology saved so many people! Now I can go home and skin a saber tooth with my bare teeth and fix everything :)


pstarr, technology saved people who were yet to be born, thus illustrating that we have the ability to alter our environment. It saved countless billions.

We can always invent our way out of it and save countless billions.

We invented the plow

Go us!


Technology is a good slave but a VERY poor master. Unless we realise that the machine that created all these golden eggs, can ONLY create golden eggs (without a complete rebuild) then we really have a problem. Ongoing, I would say.

Any solution has to involve initial recognition of this fact. If that happens, we can move on. But not until...

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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby mkwin » Mon 03 Sep 2007, 18:33:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Offshore', 'Y')ou guys don't even want solutions. It's hilarious.

I post about a solar powered luxury home and instead of focusing on the solar power solution you say it's a luxury home therefore it's too expensive. I can see the Doomer slogan now: "Saving the Earth; it's too expensive." But what will the environmentalists say? LMAO.

I post about a hydrogen car that works and you say it's too dangerous, but driving a gas powered car on the road is totally safe and without risk right? The engine takes up too much trunk space and it's an inconvenience: the horror!!! LMAO


I am not a doomer and believe a transition to a new sustainable energy paradigm, or at least a bridge system can occur but the things you are highlighting are not a 'solution'. If we had 30 years to peak oil, maybe.

The problem is peak oil is now or within the next decade so we can't mitigate the damaging economic consequences. The world’s car fleets, let alone the housing stock, take a long time to renew.

Sure, we could all demand a nice BMW hydrogen car but can BMW supply 300 million for the western world and, if so, at what price? Especially considering the fact we could be in recession and the supply/demand picture will quickly make them unaffordable to all but the richest. The same goes for housing, could US industry build 50 million eco homes? Would people knock down their current homes and accept the cost? What about the unimaginable amount of raw materials needed for such a task?

Are you beginning to understand the pessimism?
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby Boris555 » Mon 03 Sep 2007, 19:35:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Boris555', '$')300,000 is the actual cost of materials and labor anywhere else in the country.




Which is still ridiculously expensive.


A solar and "green" house simply need not cost so much. I don't see the helpfulness in promoting such expensive solutions.


Not expensive for that huge-ass house.

I have a solar-powered cabin (not 100% solar yet, but I'm working on it) that cost me a total of about $12,000 to build. $2000 was for the solar system. Another 5 grand worth of batteries, solar cells and maybe a small windmill (plus a lot of labor) and I can take this thing off the grid.
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby Offshore » Mon 03 Sep 2007, 21:47:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'A')re you beginning to understand the pessimism?

No.

I'm invested in oil services and drillers because I believe the Peak Oil hypothesis is correct and the supply/demand imbalance will lead to higher commodity and stock prices. I'm also invested in gold bullion because we still have a Democrat Party.

However, although post-peak Maracaibo looks a lot like Water World, I just don't see Mad Max 2: The Road Warrior in the cards. If America ever turns into Nigeria it will be due to left-wing political policies and not because of Peak Oil.
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby Omnitir » Tue 04 Sep 2007, 00:11:27

You guys are quick to point out how useless this kind of thing is, and how it's not nearly enough.

But stop and think for a second;

would you rather see the yuppies attempting to be green,

or would you rather see this demographic have no interest what-so-ever in the environment?

Perhaps you would be happier if they kept on buying inefficient Mcmansion's, and perhaps a Hummer in every driveway?

Yeah it's not enough. Of course it's not enough. But it's a step in the right direction. And it's the people with the wealth that most need to make this step.

Better they start buying solar powered homes and hopeless attempts at renewable transport, rather than go the other way, right?

Or would some of you be happier if the trend was for everyone to upgrade the Hummers into Mac Trucks? Would you be happier if the people with all the money did not have any interest in investing into renewables?
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 04 Sep 2007, 00:43:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')ow. Thanks for clearing that up for me. I didn't know that technology saved so many people! Now I can go home and skin a saber tooth with my bare teeth and fix everything :)
While some applications really do help out people quite a bit, I think it's more like technology can cause problems or provide solutions. It is after all just technology, the application is what's good or bad depending on POV. When it's causing a problem do to it's misuse wrt the greater good, like what's called PO here, the solution to the problem is to stop using technology to cause the problem.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby gg3 » Tue 04 Sep 2007, 01:31:31

Clearly any step forward is a good thing; all other factors equal, solar homes and non-fossil-fueled vehicles are a plus. However the more you look into the population/resource equation, the more you have to conclude that what is needed is an effort on a scale that would dwarf WW2.

As well, the built-in systemic lags, even under optimistic assumptions (3 years to build a nuclear reactor and 5 years to turn over the vehicle fleet), are such that by the time the impacts are recognized incontrovertibly, it will be too late to turn it around. The titanic is heading for the iceberg and the best that can be hoped for is to reduce speed by the time of impact.

---

Pstarr, cut the ad-hominems, they don't do any good. See below for a more productive alternative.

---

Offshore, during six years of single-party Republican rule, we spent enough money in Iraq to have built:

150 nuclear reactors
and
100,000 utility-scale wind farms
and
five million solar roofs.

And at present, Bush is asking for another $200 B-as-in-Big billion, which would have been another 100 nuclear plants, 50,000 wind farms, and five million more solar roofs.

At the same time our military is stretched so thin that General Schoomaker (Joint Chiefs) has said "we are in danger of breaking the active component," which is traditionally-understated military language for "you f---ing fools are destroying the Army."

Meanwhile we suffered the first full-scale loss of a major metropolitan area in US history.

Can you honestly tell me that this administration is even remotely competent?

---

Back to architecture for a moment:

My God that place is Ugly! It resembles nothing so much as a rectangular aquarium tank where all the fishies can be seen swimming around.

A flat roof is an oxymoron, and flat roofs are a plague in California. Water does not run off of flat surfaces, instead it pools up and seeks any way out including down through imperfections in the surface, and into the structural members.

And the modern fetish for vast expanses of plate glass is downright gross. Welcome to the Age of the Panopticon, where privacy is a thing of the past and your every move is visible to your nosy neighbors. Just like Eugene Zamyatin's novel We, which was the inspiration for Orwell's 1984. In Zamyatin's socialistic dystopia, people lived in glass apartments where all was visible except during the designated "sexual hours" when curtains could be pulled closed. And now we seem to be creating it and putting a high price tag on it to make it attractive, "open" floorplans included.

There are plenty of high-efficiency solar designs that are a hell of a lot more liveable than that. Interestingly enough, the Bush house in Crawford is a great example, including the interior space being partitioned into specific rooms for specific purposes so that heating and cooling can be concentrated on rooms that are occupied, rather than heating or cooling an entire "open" floorplan while the occupants cluster in a corner to read a story or watch a movie. Now if only Bush had applied a similar degree of common sense to our energy policies, we would have by now built enough nuclear, wind, and solar capacity to tell the Arabs to go pound sand.
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby The_Setite » Tue 04 Sep 2007, 05:35:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Offshore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'A')re you beginning to understand the pessimism?

No.

I'm invested in oil services and drillers because I believe the Peak Oil hypothesis is correct and the supply/demand imbalance will lead to higher commodity and stock prices. I'm also invested in gold bullion because we still have a Democrat Party.

However, although post-peak Maracaibo looks a lot like Water World, I just don't see Mad Max 2: The Road Warrior in the cards. If America ever turns into Nigeria it will be due to left-wing political policies and not because of Peak Oil.
I had you pegged for a republican bush-sucking idiot. you just verified that.



Well, if we are all screwed...why sit here blogging about it pstarr? Start the dieoff for us....
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby Bas » Tue 04 Sep 2007, 06:07:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '
')
Technology is a good slave but a VERY poor master. Unless we realise that the machine that created all these golden eggs, can ONLY create golden eggs (without a complete rebuild) then we really have a problem. Ongoing, I would say.

Any solution has to involve initial recognition of this fact. If that happens, we can move on. But not until...

JP


I've had this thought for a while, but never knew how to exactly put it into words; brilliant JPL, it's going down as a member quote :)
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby Concerned » Tue 04 Sep 2007, 17:20:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'Y')ou guys are quick to point out how useless this kind of thing is, and how it's not nearly enough.

But stop and think for a second;

would you rather see the yuppies attempting to be green,


In my opinion, it's not even being green. The price tag alone indicates the level of resource investment required.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
or would you rather see this demographic have no interest what-so-ever in the environment?

Stories of power down are not sexy. A story about spending four million on a home that uses solar energy, while still plugged into the main grid satisfies that dreamy fuzzy techno feel good fix that everyone craves. Bigger, better faster forever and ever.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Perhaps you would be happier if they kept on buying inefficient Mcmansion's, and perhaps a Hummer in every driveway?

Either way it don't matter. Not unless I see a bunch of stories how people around the world are losing interest in accumulating stuff e.g. house, cars, gadgets, vacations, salary increase etc... The hummer is just a highly visible manifestation of our wasteful ways.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Yeah it's not enough. Of course it's not enough. But it's a step in the right direction. And it's the people with the wealth that most need to make this step.

Better they start buying solar powered homes and hopeless attempts at renewable transport, rather than go the other way, right?

At four million the home is a joke. I'd be more impressed if the money was used to put solar panels on a whole lot of existing homes. The car has it's own issues not least is it's price and safety issues. Where is the infrastructure to run these things? Electric cars seem more realistic to me and much much safer.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Or would some of you be happier if the trend was for everyone to upgrade the Hummers into Mac Trucks? Would you be happier if the people with all the money did not have any interest in investing into renewables?
Two wrongs don't make a right. Being upset that some proposed techno fantasy is not the solution to the problems humanity faces falls into the don't shoot the messenger / emperor has no clothes category.
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby skyemoor » Tue 04 Sep 2007, 17:33:08

I agree that both the house and the car are not sustainable. However, aspects of the house solution might be helpful; for example, if shabby rowhouses in a city were refurnished with more insulation, highly energy efficient appliances, and solar panels, then that would be an eventual positive step. Ditch the car; walk, bike, take mass transit and carshare (e.g., Flexcar, Zipcar, etc) when you really need to.

If one wants to build something new, do it in a brownfield in this manner.
http://www.carfree.com
http://ecoplan.org/carshare/cs_index.htm
http://www.velomobile.de/GB/Advantages/advantages.html

Chance favors the prepared mind. -- Louis Pasteur

He that lives upon hope will die fasting. --Benjamin Franklin
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 05 Sep 2007, 16:05:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'I')n my opinion, it's not even being green. The price tag alone indicates the level of resource investment required.
To an extent, yes, but I don't count the cost of the skills required to put it together since one of stuff costs $$$. I would guess there's at most a few hundred grand worth of material in that house, and that's using top of the line stuff. A DIY equivalent could be done for way less.
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby Concerned » Wed 05 Sep 2007, 18:14:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'I')n my opinion, it's not even being green. The price tag alone indicates the level of resource investment required.
To an extent, yes, but I don't count the cost of the skills required to put it together since one of stuff costs $$$. I would guess there's at most a few hundred grand worth of material in that house, and that's using top of the line stuff. A DIY equivalent could be done for way less.


unfortunately the economy as currently structured does not work that way.

Your $200 Nike shoes labor and materials likely amount to less than 5% of the final cost.
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 05 Sep 2007, 18:21:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'u')nfortunately the economy as currently structured does not work that way.

Your $200 Nike shoes labor and materials likely amount to less than 5% of the final cost.
Maybe the economy works like that for you, but I try not to get ripped off that much. ;) I don't buy $200 shoes, be them Nike or any other brand. I do however attempt to invest the small amount of time/effort needed to figure out how to do most expensive services myself, and along those lines I don't pay the extremely bloated charges most industries have in order for people to "make a living".
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby Offshore » Thu 06 Sep 2007, 03:34:48

Solar is getting much cheaper.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')olar costs about 25 cents a kilowatt hour. That's compared to about 9 cents a kilowatt hour for natural gas and 5 cents a kilowatt hour for modern coal-burning plants, as well as 6 cents a kilowatt hour for wind energy if tax considerations are included. The good news is that the cost of solar power is falling all the time. It once stood at $1 a kilowatt hour and advocates say that it could soon cost 12-16 cents a kilowatt hour.
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby mkwin » Thu 06 Sep 2007, 05:22:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Offshore', '[')url=http://www.energycentral.com/centers/energybiz/ebi_detail.cfm?id=377]Solar is getting much cheaper.[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')olar costs about 25 cents a kilowatt hour. That's compared to about 9 cents a kilowatt hour for natural gas and 5 cents a kilowatt hour for modern coal-burning plants, as well as 6 cents a kilowatt hour for wind energy if tax considerations are included. The good news is that the cost of solar power is falling all the time. It once stood at $1 a kilowatt hour and advocates say that it could soon cost 12-16 cents a kilowatt hour.


Offshore, we are all aware of Solar. I am a big fan especially of the new nano solar, which can be produced cheaply. I believe solar will be a part of our future energy system but it won't stop peak oil and it most likely won't stop peak gas. The ‘severe economic consequences’ high lighted in the Hirsch report are coming – most likely in five years time or less.
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby Concerned » Thu 06 Sep 2007, 06:56:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'u')nfortunately the economy as currently structured does not work that way.

Your $200 Nike shoes labor and materials likely amount to less than 5% of the final cost.
Maybe the economy works like that for you, but I try not to get ripped off that much. ;) I don't buy $200 shoes, be them Nike or any other brand. I do however attempt to invest the small amount of time/effort needed to figure out how to do most expensive services myself, and along those lines I don't pay the extremely bloated charges most industries have in order for people to "make a living".


Ok instead of a concrete figure use something more abstract $x for example. Yes even the shoes you buy have a resource, manufacturing, marketing and distribution chain. Unless you made them yourself of course.

You can use pretty much any example with any price tag on it. The resource and labor cost of most products is the least of the sticker price is my point.
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Re: Antidoomer Porn

Unread postby Offshore » Thu 06 Sep 2007, 11:00:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'I') believe solar will be a part of our future energy system but it won't stop peak oil and it most likely won't stop peak gas.

Of course solar won't prevent peak oil. Nevertheless it's a solution to the problem we face.

A cure is different from a vaccine.
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