[Graeme]

Solar electricity for over one billion people and two million jobs by 2020

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he capacity of annually installed solar power systems would reach 179 GWp by 2030. About 60% of this would be in the grid-connected market, mainly in industrialised countries. The total number of people by then covering their own electricity from a grid-connected solar system would reach 776 million.

Although the key markets are located now mainly in the industrialised world, a global shift will result in a significant share – about 27 % or an annual market of 48 GWp – being taken by the developing world in 2030. Since system sizes are much smaller and the population density greater, this means that up to 2.9 billion people in developing countries would by then be using solar electricity. This would represent a major breakthrough for the technology from its present emerging status.

By 2040, the penetration of solar generation would be even greater. Assuming that overall global power consumption had by then increased to 22,516 TWh (assuming serious energy efficiency measures), the solar contribution would equal 28 percent of the world’s electricity output.

[Offshore]

The doomer reaction to this one should be hilarious. /popcorn

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Offshore', 'T')he doomer reaction to this one should be hilarious. /popcorn

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Offshore', 'T')he doomer reaction to this one should be hilarious. /popcorn

[gg3]

Concerned, that's where nuclear baseload capacity comes in.

The Greenpeace article says solar would come to 28% of world energy demand. This already assumes substantial conservation & efficiency measures, which by any reasonable forecast could reduce demand by 50%.

So, take 100% of current demand, reduce it by 50%, and call that figure the new 100%. Meet 28% of that demand with solar. Meet another 30% with wind (high-side estimate). You still have 42% that has to come from "somewhere," and the obvious best solution for that is expanded nuclear fission. Five years to build a plant once the NIMBY factor is taken out of the equation.

It would not be unreasonable to suggest that the 42% provided by nuclear, would be more than sufficient to cover demand at night and at other times when weather isn't favorable for solar and wind output.

On the other hand, we would need leadership who believe in science, and we would need citizens who are able to rise to the challenge. Neither of which can be taken for granted at this point.

[Bas]

Solar has huge potential, not least because of the fact that people can put a few panels on their own roofs instead of relying on the big power companies. The pace at which the industry is developing in particular in Germany and China is also very encouraging. Solar technology is the no. 1 bright spot for the future in my book and the main reason (among others) why I'm not a total doomer.

[pawn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he ‘Alternative Scenario’ for future electricity demand is based on the Greenpeace/European Renewable Energy Council Energy Revolution report (January 2007) and takes into account the
extensive use of energy efficiency measures in order to decrease final electricity consumption. This scenario shows global demand for power increasing from 13,675 TWh in 2003 to 14,188 TWh in 2010, 16,614 TWh in 2020, 19,189 TWh in 2030 and 22,516 TWh in 2040. The PV contribution is therefore higher under this projection.

[eastbay]

gg3, you're talking about one major power down.

That new '100%' will reflect a greater energy usage than what we use today, assuming current growth rates.

This already assumes substantial conservation & efficiency measures, which by any reasonable forecast could reduce demand by 50%.


Yes, the anticipated energy demand by 2040 will be about double what it is today assuming a 2% growth rate. Cut the 2040 demand in half and we're right back where we are today. Cut today's use in hanf and we can get an idea what per capita usage might be like if everything goes perfectly. If oil depletes a little faster than 2% or the geopolitical situation deteriorates a little faster the scenario will be markedly less favorable. We're certainly going to have to throw everything we have at our soon-arriving common disaster just to reach a basic survival level in what are now fairly well to do countries.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'C')oncerned, that's where nuclear baseload capacity comes in.

The Greenpeace article says solar would come to 28% of world energy demand. This already assumes substantial conservation & efficiency measures, which by any reasonable forecast could reduce demand by 50%.

[TheDude]

I've read there isn't enough copper in the world to rig up the third world for EVs, as it happens.

Metal Stocks and Sustainability.

Investing in the Copper Market.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Q')uite simply, the world supply is running critically low.

As the world's third most widely used metal, copper is an important element in global industrial development and is considered a barometer of economic expansion. So although copper is neither a precious metal nor an energy source, it is inarguably one of the most important commodities in today's world.

Copper Fact

To give you an idea of just how much copper is needed for industrialization…

There are 18,161 lbs. of copper in a single power transformer. Each transformer has six copper windings which, if you were to lay end to end, would give you 110, 029 feet or 20.84 miles of copper.

SOURCE - www.dmepower.com

Entire infrastructures are based on this reddish metal… plumbing, construction, telecommunications, transportation. Consider the exponential growth in areas such as China and India, and it becomes evident why copper prices are increasing and why the world is experiencing this shortage.

Unfortunately for these regions, copper supply has been unable to keep up with demand since 2002, resulting in a supply/demand imbalance.

[Twilight]

I agree with the resource limitations being severe, solar is something best done on an individual scale and it will be up to YOU to do it yourself. The EU will not be importing solar electricity from a PV-paved North Africa, that's for sure. We can dream, but if it ever happens, we will not be the beneficiaries.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Offshore', 'T')he doomer reaction to this one should be hilarious. /popcorn

[KingM]

It's going to take everything we've got to keep the lights on. I'd love to see solar panels on every roof, but barring the serious development of thin film solar or some such, it's hard to see this scenario playing out.

The most likely technologies, combining feasibility, energy density, etc., are deep geothermal and nuclear with wind/hydro as a small, but significant part of the mix. We'll still be burning coal and oil 100 years from now, but hopefully, they'll be ~20% of total energy or less. You can forget biofuels. They might be used in niche applications, but I don't see them providing any real solution.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I')'ve read there isn't enough copper in the world to rig up the third world for EVs, as it happens.

[timbo]

At a personal use level I like solar panels.

At grid level various of the solar thermal options may help.

But then I live in "a sunburnt country, a land of sweeping plains..."

I do agree that there is no way we can continue with our current profligate levels of energy consumption. Or general resource consumption for that matter. Put harshly humanity has reached plague proportions.

I just hope that we can descend to a moderately technological level of society.

My true hero will be the person who figures out how to replace the perpetual growth model economy, maybe before it crashes and burns.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timbo', 'M')y true hero will be the person who figures out how to replace the perpetual growth model economy, maybe before it crashes and burns.

[timbo]

Yes we need fundamental cultural change as you say and yes there are other models out there. What we don't have yet is the believable charismatic leader to start the ball rolling.

Unfortunately there is no widely seen financial/resource equivalent of "An Inconvenient Truth"

[Ludi]

Do you think a mass of individuals are incapable of starting the ball rolling?


I'm not personally a big fan of "leaders" and don't actually understand why some people seem to need them so much when they are perfectly capable of making decisions and changes in their own lives.


Why do you need a leader, timbo?

[timbo]

I don't personally. I've got the message. Get sensible and start to Powerdown.

But as a couple of people I've talked to have said. Why do you keep studying peak oil and population overshoot doesn't it drive you nuts? They really do prefer to just keep on going with their heads firmly buried in the sand even after I've explained the probable future to them if we don't start acting now.

These are university educated technical people including engineers and they even get that there isn't likely to be a technical solution to continued consumption at current levels, EROEI, available arable land and water as a limitation to bio-fuels.

So yes I try to spread the message and maybe it is gaining momentum but I really do suspect for things to become truly mainstream we need another Al Gore type. People are just too comfortable in their daily lives at the moment to want to change.

I'm not that fussed about the so called storage problem, super-heat large quantities of water or something, pump water uphill etc, use super capacitors etc and any combination thereof.

But above all we cannot continue to maintain an exponential growth model in a finite world.

Unfortunately democracies are particularly bad at times like this as a large majority of people seem to believe they can vote for whatever they want.

I've read Simmons, Leggett, Heinberg, and even David Holmgren's Permaculture books.

[davep]

VRB Power Systems have a good way of storing electricity (like a long-life battery). It's hideously expensive for the moment. It has been chosen for an Irish wind farm to even out power distribution IIRC.

http://www.vrbpower.com/technology/index.html