[coyote]

I think there's been some confusion about the word 'doomer,' especially lately. I know there has been for me. There are posters here whom I believed to be doomers, because of their beliefs, only to find out that they do not consider themselves doomers at all. Likewise, some who seemed to be poking fun at doomers eventually turned out to be doomers themselves -- or to be using a wildly different definition from what I would use. There's been some talk about doomers believing collapse will occur directly after peak oil -- mostly from their detractors. But immediate global collapse wouldn't occur to me as being a likely event.

I think it's time to lay our cards on the table and declare ourselves. Clear up the confusion.

Three questions to be answered in this thread. First: what is your definition of 'doom,' as used in the word 'doomer'? Is it human extinction, or only a grand depression? Severe and immediate dieoff, or just a few strategic resource wars? Second: by your own definition, are you a 'doomer'? Do you believe the doom you've described above will actually occur? Third: why are you a doomer, or why aren't you a doomer? What specific aspects of our situation make you think we'll be sucked into the abyss -- or that we'll skirt it neatly, or avoid it altogether?

Perhaps if this thread is successful, and enough people express their views, then at the end we'll be able to come to some kind of consensus about what these words actually mean. So: relevant discussion of other posters' definitions and declarations is also welcome. But please, keep flaming to a minimum. I know it's all too easy to make fun of those who don't share your viewpoint; but the purpose of this thread is to clarify our definitions.

Once again, the three questions:

1. What is 'doom'?
2. According to your own definition, are you a 'doomer'?
3. Why or why not?

[coyote]

I'll get the ball rolling:

1. For me, doom means the collapse of global industrial civilization, followed by something like the dark ages and a significant dieoff event. There's no particular timetable; it could unfold over a few decades, or even a couple of centuries. My personal belief is that a global collapse would likely follow the pattern of a slow decline over some few decades, followed by a hard fast crash after too many societal supports have been taken away one after another. This is the pattern followed by many collapsing societies described in Jared Diamond's book Collapse.

2. I am a doomer.

3. Peak oil, by itself, does not cause my doomerhood (doomerosity?). I believe peak oil by itself would be a 'long emergency,' as described by Kunstler, leading to a slow, extended dieback as less and less food, medicine, etc. are produced and distributed. What makes me a doomer is peak oil compounded by the other natural resource and myriad ecological crises coming down the pike, as described in my 'Converging Catastrophes' thread. Peak oil might be navigable on its own; but not in conjunction with global heating, aquifer loss, topsoil loss, fishery depletion, mass extinctions, etc. These are the societal supports mentioned in my definition, which will be taken away one by one until continuance of industrial society becomes untenable. I don't know how long this will take; but I don't see much concerted movement in a different direction. I believe that eventually this will happen.

[Pixie]

Coyote,

I pretty much share your definition of doom, except that I would not consider industrial collapse to be doom unless it is extremely unpleasant. To whit: if we were able to slowly transition to a low energy society without any abrupt population crash, that would not be doom to me, it would be the answer to my prayers. On the other hand, any transition involving an abrupt population crash from 7 or 8 billion down to 1 or 2 billion people would definitely count as doom.

I am a doomer. I am convinced that doom is coming by the fact that green revolution ag is fossil fuel based, and we only had 1 or 2 billion on the planet before that point. I don't believe we can produce the same amount of energy from any combination of sources without fossil fuels, and if we did, we would just pollute the planet that much more, leading to a greater degradation in the natural ecological systems that determine our carrying capacity.

I believe that the ugly die off will come between 2030 and 2070. That's just my gut feeling, based on all the arguments I have seen on all sides. I point to no single piece of evidence and no single analysis to support my feeling.

BTW, In 2030, I will be 60, so I will have had a long, satisfying life and no kids, so I am not that worried for myself or my family.

[frankthetank]

Empty grocery store shelfs. No jobs or limited number of jobs. Gas stations empty. Refrigerators that don't run and furnaces that don't heat (no electricity/no gas).

[greenworm]

2012, oil is the least of our concerns.

[Heineken]

Coyote, excellent thread idea, and excellent post. You took the words out of my mouth in answering your three questions.

Global warming (increasingly being euphemized, often unwittingly, as "climate change") is the development that turned me into a hard-core doomer. As big as PO will be, GW dwarfs it in significance and ultimate impact.

When you combine GW with PO and environmental devastation, you get an overwhelming one-two-three punch that will render the world unable to support anything like its current population for more than a few additional decades at most. Thus, the doomer position is the only realistic and logical one, because the problems have become larger than we can ever solve, just like the national debt is larger than we can ever pay.

At a personal level over the remaining years I could reasonably have been expected to live (a max of about 30), doom for me is ever-hotter weather, ever-worse droughts, insects or fire consuming my forestland, my well going dry, periodic crushing storms, growing difficulty maintaining buildings and equipment, food harder or more expensive to get, health care unaffordable or unobtainable, brownouts and blackouts that leave me sweating through 100-degree nights, and electricity and fuel bills that are simply out-of-sight. Eventually these events and others are certain to conspire to kill me, and many others, prematurely.

[Don35]

1. For me doomerish=Die-off, economic collapse, resource wars, etc.
2. Yes, I am a doomer.
3. There seem to be more storms ahead of us than we could ever handle. There are simply TOO MANY PEOPLE. We consume everything and that can't last forever.

Good thread!

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '
')
1. What is 'doom'?

[thuja]

Doom: Civilization as we know it ending as well as an eventual population contraction towards the carrying capacity of the Earth sans fossil fuels. There will be no technological free energy machines. There will be no basket of alt. energies allowing us to live as we do now.

At the same time- doom and die-off are terms that make me very very annoyed on this board. There are many many intelligent people here but I often see people talking in generalities of a coming die-off that conjures images of starving, cannibalistic zombie hordes. As a previous poster liked to suggest, the lights are out and no more food at the grocery store. This leads to "Annie Get your gun" scenarios and the bunker mentality that I like to call uber-doomer. Please don't put me in that category. For a quick perusal of that thinking, go to Lifeaftertheoilcrash.net and Savinars's site.

I am also an optimistic doomer, as concerned said. I don't believe population contraction is a scary or dangerous thing. It is already happening in most all of the old Soviet Union States and Eastern Europe. It is about to happen in many parts of W. Europe and Japan. Its called low fertility and and lowered average lifespan. No 4 riders of the apocalypse...

I also think that after a population contraction, life will begin to moderate and will still include some vestiges of modern civilization. There will still be complicated technology a hundred years hence- it will just be used much more sparingly. The excesses of modern industrialism and associated ecocide will be curbed and humans will be forced to live within the natural perameters of the Easrth's carrying capacity. What's doomeristic about that?

So go doom- just not uber-doom!

[Don35]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'D')oom: Civilization as we know it ending as well as an eventual population contraction towards the carrying capacity of the Earth sans fossil fuels. There will be no technological free energy machines. There will be no basket of alt. energies allowing us to live as we do now.

I also think that after a population contraction, life will begin to moderate and will still include some vestiges of modern civilization. There will still be complicated technology a hundred years hence- it will just be used much more sparingly. The excesses of modern industrialism and associated ecocide will be curbed and humans will be forced to live within the natural perameters of the Easrth's carrying capacity. What's doomeristic about that?

So go doom- just not uber-doom!

[Pixie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Don35', '
')
Thuja- nice points and a good refinement of the thread. For me, I hope for your scenario and I fear for uberdoom!

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '1'). What is 'doom'?
2. According to your own definition, are you a 'doomer'?
3. Why or why not?

[coyote]

Thanks, Heineken. You and I are clearly on the same page with this.

I agree with you about 'climate change' being a euphemism. It just sounds so much friendlier. I personally have latched onto the term 'global heating,' as used by Lovelock. It's the least euphemistic of the three.

I like how you turned your doom definition personal. For me personally, doom is simply not having enough to eat or drink. I've gone 1-3 days without food many times, and once as long as six full days, but I still don't like the idea one bit. My various fasts, forced and unforced, have failed to dewussify me.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'A')t a personal level over the remaining years I could reasonably have been expected to live (a max of about 30), doom for me is ever-hotter weather, ever-worse droughts, insects or fire consuming my forestland, my well going dry, periodic crushing storms, growing difficulty maintaining buildings and equipment, food harder or more expensive to get, health care unaffordable or unobtainable, brownouts and blackouts that leave me sweating through 100-degree nights, and electricity and fuel bills that are simply out-of-sight. Eventually these events and others are certain to conspire to kill me, and many others, prematurely.

[Pops]

What is 'doom'?
Believing in an inevitable slate-wiper fate where all my efforts are for naught and those who expended no effort prevail.

According to your own definition, are you a 'doomer'?
Nope, nothing is inevitable; my efforts, if I am lucky enough to direct them in the appropriate direction, will serve me - and more importantly, my offspring.
But in the end, it is simply my choice of direction that decides; not fate.

Why or why not?
Because I was born lucky, have free will and the ability to use it.
There are many avenues I might choose.
To waste that luck and free will on some keyboard fantasy of doom is simply quiting - suicide by message board IOWs.

To all that only tap, I you.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'S')o go doom- just not uber-doom!

[RdSnt]

Indeed, doom would be the retreat of all our best efforts and knowledge. The accumulation of capabilities that have lead us off this planet. I am a very big advocate of man's efforts to journey beyond our first home. I regard it as our next big test of our humanity. No, we haven't passed the current stage, but many in the world have.

The pressures that we face as a species are what they are and as just one other animal we will fall prey to the changes in our environment. Such is life.

My largest concerns have to do with our "civilized" interference in the inevitable results of declining petroleum and our changing climate. We tend to do very stupid things when we panic.
My feelings are that our first world cultures will panic very dramatically and that is going to wreak havoc on our potential future.
That leads me to being a doomer.
The vast majority of those around me, and I mean 99.5% of those around me have absolutely no clue what is about to occur and more importantly aren't inclined to be interested.
They are doomed.

[billp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am convinced that doom is coming by the fact that green revolution ag is fossil fuel based, and we only had 1 or 2 billion on the planet before that point.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'I') don't believe population contraction is a scary or dangerous thing.

[Ludi]

LOL. I think you're talking at cross purposes. Thuja sees "population contraction" as people dying at a ripe old age but fewer people being born, therefore, the population will drop.

"Die-off" implies premature death.


I don't know why anyone would exclude themselves from doom. How can it be doom if it doesn't affect you personally? That's what makes it doom, isn't it? That it will affect us? That we ourselves will suffer or die?