[Alcassin]

I know situation seems to be hopeless, but still we have freedom to organize, don't we?

We can all grow a garden, pay off debt, these are positive things concerning us as individuals. Permaculture is another solution, but it can disappear if there is a draft, we can all die in unwanted conflicts closed in trenches. This would be shit.

If you can organize your community, friends, create net of contacs, join or support any group that dreams similar to your dreams why not try? It's heroic for me as I see that most people are blind to the efforts we will have to face.

After all at least you can say "I tried".

If people themselves will not see that world has to be changed, nothing will change. There is old lesson from history - if you will not turn on politics, the politics will turn on you Passive life is nothing but dying with consciousness for years.

[Revi]

I like your attitude Alcassin. We have to prepare for it, and then hope for the best. That's all we can do.

I think that society will begin to feel the brunt this winter. Winter is the time when the northern countries use the most oil. Here in the US we use a lot for driving around, which may not work so well very soon. I don't care if I can't drive around so much, but heating our house is something that isn't optional. I have a feeling that 2007/08 is going to be the winter of our discontent...

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')
I think that society will begin to feel the brunt this winter.

[Alcassin]

First I want to see major diseases in Africa that will spread in their cities than I will tell you that it will be seen.

We externalize the cost of PO because of high prices to poor countries.

[roccman]

H5N1 may have mutated...

http://microbiologybytes.wordpress.com/ ... s-the-end/

[FreakOil]

I think that one of the reasons it may be difficult to see the initial, gradual downslope - economical and social - is becuase there is so little reliable data and it's impossible to paint an accurate picture about how things are going in general. I'm talking specifically about broad government data.

Unemployment and inflation figures are utterly fraudalent. The incarcerated and those who have ceased looking for jobs are left off the joblessness figures. Inflation is constantly rejigged, adding and subtracting goods from the basket to make things look rosier. While food and energy prices have gone up, that hasn't affected people to the degree that it should because they still have access to credit.

GDP includes a lot of transactions that have no basis in real value or utility, just expectations that a property or piece of paper will appreciate at some point in the future, so businesses and bigwigs go on buying, selling and shuffling papers around. This can go on for a lot longer than we think, until reality starts slapping people in the face. The stock market is even less reality-based than GDP, but the collapsing housing market - which has only just begun to slip and slide, as far as I can tell - has blown more than a few dark clouds over the horizon.

In other words, the data that could (should?) alert us to the beginning of the end is unreliable, so we are left with that which we can interpret ourselves, as well as anecdotal evidence. As you already know, we do a lot of interpreting of data here, and there's rarely a straight answer.

As for anecdotal evidence, the members of this site are probably poorly positioned to glean anything from that. It's widely accepted among Peakniks that the poor will feel the pinch first, but Peakniks are not poor. Most members of this site are quite intelligent and well-educated, meaning they probably have good jobs. There may be a whole lot of horrible things happening right now as a result of the worsening situation, but it's happening to poor people, not our family, friends and neighbors, so we don't know about it.

That's just my humble opinion.

[Ferretlover]

re: "Most members of this site are quite intelligent and well-educated, meaning they probably have good jobs. There may be a whole lot of horrible things happening right now as a result of the worsening situation, but it's happening to poor people, not our family, friends and neighbors, so we don't know about it. "

IMHO, being some degree of intelligent and having common sense makes making predictions a bit more difficult because: we can see all the logical results for actions, and may tend to dismiss those scenarios that don't make sense, and, we have to spend a lot of time wading through government and business misinformation to find a nugget of truth.

[Revi]

I work with a lot of people of lower middle class means. They are feeling the cost of everything going up. They have had a hard time keeping up. A lot of people can't pay their bills and are getting pushed out of their apartments. I don't have any concrete evidence, but I have a feeling that those who are the working poor are really hurting.

[PhebaAndThePilgrim]

Good evening from Pheba, from the farm:
Revi, you are onto something. I do volunteer work at a local food bank. The food bank has a thrift shop. The thrift shop accepts donated clothing and sells each clothing item for 25 cents. The money that is raised is used to buy food for the emergency food pantry at the food bank.
I have watched things unraveling for about 18 months now. I see things from the bottom, where the collapse will start.
People who are looking at the stock market and the upper middle class are looking at the wrong place in the social pyramid for signs of the peak oil/housing bubble collapse to begin.
The collapse has begun at the bottom and is working its way up, not the other way around.
I am seeing a lower and lower quality of donated items. Why? Mostly because the people that had money to donate high quality items have left town. Most have lost good paying jobs. Our small town recently outsourced jobs from closed down factories that have kept the small town alive and vibrant for 100 years. I have watched friends struggle to make house payments, feed kids, etc.
By the way, very few of my associates, covolunteers, and friends have any health insurance.
The monthly food line for free food gets more chaotic and crowded every month. More and more families are desparate to get by.
Free food is suppossed to be one weeks worth of food.
The problem is that we get a lot of filler. We get toiletries and other heavy items that fulfill tonnage requirements as a donation, but don't really feed people.
I am seeing this happen more and more. Something is going on.
I have such an uneasy feeling. there also seems to be a mad scramble mindset at the bottom of the social pyramid. People are beginning to get a sense that things are unraveling.
Don't look up for an answer, look down.
Pheba.

[Cyrus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phebagirl', 'G')ood evening from Pheba, from the farm:
Revi, you are onto something. I do volunteer work at a local food bank. The food bank has a thrift shop. The thrift shop accepts donated clothing and sells each clothing item for 25 cents. The money that is raised is used to buy food for the emergency food pantry at the food bank.
I have watched things unraveling for about 18 months now. I see things from the bottom, where the collapse will start.
People who are looking at the stock market and the upper middle class are looking at the wrong place in the social pyramid for signs of the peak oil/housing bubble collapse to begin.
The collapse has begun at the bottom and is working its way up, not the other way around.
I am seeing a lower and lower quality of donated items. Why? Mostly because the people that had money to donate high quality items have left town. Most have lost good paying jobs. Our small town recently outsourced jobs from closed down factories that have kept the small town alive and vibrant for 100 years. I have watched friends struggle to make house payments, feed kids, etc.
By the way, very few of my associates, covolunteers, and friends have any health insurance.
The monthly food line for free food gets more chaotic and crowded every month. More and more families are desparate to get by.
Free food is suppossed to be one weeks worth of food.
The problem is that we get a lot of filler. We get toiletries and other heavy items that fulfill tonnage requirements as a donation, but don't really feed people.
I am seeing this happen more and more. Something is going on.
I have such an uneasy feeling. there also seems to be a mad scramble mindset at the bottom of the social pyramid. People are beginning to get a sense that things are unraveling.
Don't look up for an answer, look down.
Pheba.

[FreakOil]

Pheba and Revi,

You have, to a certain degree, confirmed my suspicion: That Peak Oil may already be hurting people but some of the members here don't realize it because they are insulated to a certain degree, so to them it's still something that will happen "in the future." Thank you for sharing your experiences.

However, in Pheba's case, the people in your factory town seem to be suffering from a bad case of outsourcing. I use the word "seem" because I really don't know. I couldn't blame Peak Oil for the problem given the evidence you've provided.

But I think basically we agree that the poor will be hit first, and only poor people or people who know poor people will have some idea that the beginning of the "great decline" has begun. (I say "great decline" because I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen, so the term "great decline" is suitably vague.)

Keep us informed with the poor communities that you are in contact with, as that may be the best evidence we have that the beginning of the "great decline" has begun. (Can beginnings begin? I think I've had too much wine.)

[vision-master]

I have a brother who lives in the woods in Northern Mn. Work, what work? He is living in the depression right now! Things started falling apart last year. When you worry about buying dog food or driving 7 miles to town cause the tank is on 1/8 and you have a couple of dollars to your name, that's hurting big time. Image, you can't even afford a 12-pack of beer. Yikes.

[PhebaAndThePilgrim]

Good evening, from Pheba from the farm:
FreakOil, you are correct. Oursourcing is a contributing factor in what I am seeing. There are many contributing factors, but from what I am witnessing most of the problem is an increase in the cost of living caused by increased energy prices.
The Missouri town in question is noted for a 100 year production of firebrick used in industrial furnaces. The firebrick was mined from natural clay pits in our area.
Many abandoned clay pits have been turned into lakes. The jobs at the clay pits were high paying union jobs. They all went overseas. Only in a world of cheap abundant energy and low wage labor would this be profitable. Firebrick is very heavy.
I am wondering what it cost to ship firebrick from overseas.
Also, our area is noted for our abundant clay pits.
So, you are correct that outsourcing is one cause of the downfall of this small town.
But, I am seeing this mad scramble, uneasy mind set all around me. I just pay very close attention to what is going on around me.
Today I went to visit my daughter who lives about 60 miles away. To get to her house I have to do part of the trip across country back roads, and I cut through a small town. Then I take the interstate part of the way.
There was an accident on the interstate and traffic was backed up for ten miles. Fortunately, I was going the opposite way.
Seeing ten full miles of stalled cars was a total shock. Semi after semi after semi with SUVs galore' mile after mile after mile.
Then, on the way to daughters I passed through a small town and was stopped at a train track when a freight train went by. I saw a single large engine pulling well over 100 cars of freight.
Seeing both methods of transport so well displayed was also very shocking to me.
The one engine on the train was pulling the equivalent of at least 150 semis. Some of the flatbeds had two or more trailers loaded on them. What we are doing makes no sense at all.
Then I go to the food bank, and talk with my friends. I see people struggling just to buy milk for the kids, and gas for the car so they can go to work to earn enough to buy the milk.
Okay, I feel like I am rambling. I am exhausted from visit to daughter. Later.
Pheba, from the farm.

[Revi]

Wages in the US went up last year, whereas in Maine they declined slightly. I know what people are talking about when they say that everything is still hunky dory. In Southern Maine it's booming, and there is a different feeling in the air. It smells like prosperity. There are jobs being created, people are buying houses with the wages they make, and they even dress differently. Here in Central and Downeast Maine it's a different story. Lots of second homes were being constructed, but that has dried up now. I am afraid to think about what comes next, now that the housing bubble has popped. A lot of people are on the edge financially now.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'Y')eah truth sucks...you want to know what is in store ...read this.

PEAK OIL, TOTAL COLLAPSE, AND THE ROAD TO THE OLDUVAI

BTW this article has been peer reviewed on The Oil Drum...with very minimal edits...Perry is pretty close to spot on.

[Nicholai]

What will happen to a county such as Bagladesh? 150 million people in a landmass slightly bigger than Cuba. Much of the country exists at sea level and most of the population remains poor and uneducated. Where will these people go? Surely 150 million people aren't willing to rollover and die during food shortages and resource depletion. I'm interested in how such an enormous population, in such a small landmass, will deal with the cumbersome nature of an economic recession/depression.



And please don't simply say, "They're effed". An analysis of migration patterns coupled with climate change affects would be most interesting.

[wisconsin_cur]

Well, seeing as north and south are pretty much non-starters I guess they will migrate east or west.

Probably West... just on the hunch that the Indian Army will move to the border quicker and begin to shoot earlier.

[Bonheurdupasse]

well given that they are "related" to pakistan / slightly to india that's where they'll be heading. much less likely they'll get a positive reception in china.

[dohboi]

cur, look more carefully at the map. India is on their east AND their west.

Yes they're "effed."

Remember Indian partition. Hindu India is not particularly fond of Muslim Bangladesh (or Pakistan).

And given historical precidents, I rather doubt any of their Muslim brothers either in the mideast or in South Asia or in SE Asia will rush to their aid.

And Burma/Myanmar, the hermit dictatorship, just slightly less twisted than No. Korea, is not likely to roll out the welcome mat either.

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'c')ur, look more carefully at the map. India is on their east AND their west.

Yes they're "effed."

Remember Indian partition. Hindu India is not particularly fond of Muslim Bangladesh (or Pakistan).

And given historical precidents, I rather doubt any of their Muslim brothers either in the mideast or in South Asia or in SE Asia will rush to their aid.

And Burma/Myanmar, the hermit dictatorship, just slightly less twisted than No. Korea, is not likely to roll out the welcome mat either.