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When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil?!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby Roccland » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 10:40:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '
')1) ITO coal - appears we may be peaking in the near future and in the US, proposed coal fired power plants are being cancelled due to global warming issues.

Don't know what ITO means but...plants are not being canceled becuase of GW. They are being built with scrubbers and SCR's to meet emmision regs.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '
')2) ITO uranium - it is estimated globally we have 40 years of the stuff left at current use rates...
Anyone who uses uranium supply estimates to show a limit to nuclear power just hasn't even begun to understand nuclear power.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '
')3) Had lunch a month ago with a high level electrical engineer for a large southwest utility...he told me unless we get more installed generation on the WECC grid...Phoenix will start to have black outs in under two years.

If this is what he told you is the cause for concern then your "high level" engineer doesn't know what he is talking about. This is not true throughout the grid, I am a power generation engineer and I can tell you that generation is not the problem, grid capacity is. Besides, there are many things we can do to curve peak load "when the grid is overstressed", it's a probelm, but one that is solveable.

And even so, this presents a problem to a few sections of the grid, unlike PO which effects everyone.

Again, how id this problem more severe than PO?


Hmmmmm really....coal fired power plants are clean and not being cancelled...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW WEST ENERGY GROK

Plans for New Coal Plants Lose Steam
By Richard Martin, 7-27-07

I’ve reported on several decisions in recent months by Western utilities, including Tri-State Energy and Generation of Denver, to scrap plans for building new coal-fired power plants. Opponents of new coal-burning plants also got a boost when a private-equity group bought giant utility TXU and said it would scale back the company’s plans for new coal plants.

Now that movement has spread nationwide (Sub. req.), according to The Wall Street Journal, which reported this week that :"From coast to coast, plans for a new generation of coal-fired power plants are falling by the wayside as states conclude that conventional coal plants are too dirty to build and the cost of cleaner plants is too high.”

Journal reporter Rebecca Smith writes that in the last few months plans for many of the 150 or so new coal-fired generating plants on the books have been scrapped or delayed, and many more may fall victim to global-warming concerns. “Nearly two dozen coal projects have been canceled since early 2006, according to the National Energy Technology Laboratory in Pittsburgh, a division of the Department of Energy,” writes Smith.




$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y ANNA JO BRATTON (Associated Press Writer)
From Associated Press
August 26, 2007 1:20 PM EDT

OMAHA, Neb. - As the nation's coal-fired power plants work to create cleaner skies, they'll likely fill up landfills with millions more tons of potentially harmful ash.

More than one-third of the ash generated at the country's hundreds of coal-fired plants is now recycled - mixed with cement to build highways or used to stabilize embankments, among other things. But in a process being used increasingly across the nation, chemicals are injected into plants' emissions to capture airborne pollutants.



I will not continue to debate with someone that has not done their research.

ITO=in terms of.
500 MPH into a brick wall - me
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby clueless » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 10:48:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')mmmmm really....coal fired power plants are clean and not being cancelled...



Very interesting "bro" I work for a company that builds WFGD's (Wet Flue Gas Desulphurization Units) and we are backed up through 2012...Maybe you need to call your "high level" buddy and get some more information...And if you want to sound smart do yourself a favor ond quit forming your opinions based on what you read in press releases. And Electrical Engineers are usually not "high level" does he work with DCS's or Distribution ?
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby clueless » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 10:52:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '
')Europeans consume 1/3 the oil we consume and live pretty well - rememembr oil consumption does not mean quality of life.And besides the bigger concern in the near term is electricity, We are really over a barrel on Gas and Coal production.


The bigger concern is electricity on the near term?

Our biggest resource is coal, and we have not really even begun to tap the energy nuclear power could provide. I'd say that electricity is easily the least of our energy concerns.

Also, the American infastructure does not permit one to live the same way on the same amount of energy as your average european.


Some markets are really going to have a problem i.e. California, 42% of their ele is from gas and they are building no coal plants, by 2010 they are in trouble. Arnie will not generate or buy electricity from Coal. Althought the problem is solveable the will to solve the problem is not there.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby jbeckton » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 11:22:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '
')I will not continue to debate with someone that has not done their research.


I hope that you are not an investor!

Reasearch, ha ha. Was this your "research", a google search?

The TXU "plans" were announced shortly before they were bought out as I recall. Texes is a deregulated state which means power companies are competing. Plans to build plants are announced for strategic reasons all the time. You may notice a lot of "plans" for nuclear plants that will never be built.

But I digress, you and your "engineering buddy" are claiming-

1) We are on the verge of an electricity shortage.
2) We will not build coal plants because the cost of "clean coal" is too expensive.

Go ahead and read those two statements again and let the information wash over you. If you are half inteligent you would see that a shortage means price goes up, which means that those costly scrubbers and SCR's are going to pay off.

You should not consider google.com or lunch with your imaginary engineering friend, research.

And besides that, expensive is a relative term. What are those plants expensive in comparison to?

Gas? Wind? Solar?....................nope, nope , nope

Nuclear is the only thing close and you don't see an article about those plants being changed to nuclear plants, only that they won't be built.

Maybe you should write a research paper detailing your insightful google discoveries!
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby clueless » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 11:29:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he TXU "plans" were announced shortly before they were bought out as I recall. Texes is a deregulated state which means power companies are competing. Plans to build plants are announced for strategic reasons all the time. You may notice a lot of "plans" for nuclear plants that will never be built.


TXU is still planning four plants (I believe) and because Roccland is so clueless about how things work in the real world, what he fails to realize (among other things) is that by TXU announcing twelve and settling for four was probably what they were planning the entire time.

Roccland: That is what is called the Hegelian Dialect or Thesis/Antithesis = synthesis...In case you were unaware.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby jbeckton » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 11:34:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '
')Europeans consume 1/3 the oil we consume and live pretty well - rememembr oil consumption does not mean quality of life.And besides the bigger concern in the near term is electricity, We are really over a barrel on Gas and Coal production.


The bigger concern is electricity on the near term?

Our biggest resource is coal, and we have not really even begun to tap the energy nuclear power could provide. I'd say that electricity is easily the least of our energy concerns.

Also, the American infastructure does not permit one to live the same way on the same amount of energy as your average european.


Some markets are really going to have a problem i.e. California, 42% of their ele is from gas and they are building no coal plants, by 2010 they are in trouble. Arnie will not generate or buy electricity from Coal. Althought the problem is solveable the will to solve the problem is not there.


True, but these problems are more political.

California needs to begin building nuclear plants, I believe they are only at 15% nuc gen. They have made a grave mistake by investing so much in natural gas plants to control emmisions.

Like I said, the power generation industry does have problems, but these peoblems have solutions (at least in the short term). There are many sources for electricity, there are not many sources of oil. PO will present a much bigger problem which Roccland does not seem to grasp after he did lunch, I mean research, with a "high level electrical engineer".
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby clueless » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 11:41:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')rue, but these problems are more political.

California needs to begin building nuclear plants, I believe they are only at 15% nuc gen. They have made a grave mistake by investing so much in natural gas plants to control emmisions.

Like I said, the power generation industry does have problems, but these peoblems have solutions (at least in the short term). There are many sources for electricity, there are not many sources of oil. PO will present a much bigger problem which Roccland does not seem to grasp after he did lunch, I mean research, with a "high level electrical engineer".
[/quote]

Our Southwestern Marketing Rep. told me at the wind convention in June that he really doesn't understand why California is not planning. He clearly admitted (which was surprising to me) the Wind Turbines Ca are building is a drop in a barrel compared to what they are going to need in five yrs. As for Coal there have been questions on supply issues, not necessarily reserves, but more related to production and quality it still remains to be seen how the mining industry will scale up. A solveable problem, but maintaining the status quo my be quite difficult.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby jbeckton » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 11:47:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '
')
Our Southwestern Marketing Rep. told me at the wind convention in June that he really doesn't understand why California is not planning. He clearly admitted (which was surprising to me) the Wind Turbines Ca is building is a drop in a barrel compared to what they are going to need in five yrs. As for Coal there have been questions on supply issues, not necessarily reserves, but more related to production and quality it still remains to be seen how the mining industry will scale up. A solveable problem, but maintaining the status quo my be quite difficult.


A quickly growing state that has basically condemmed coal and does not even posess the national average of nuclear power is headed for trouble indeed. My point is that this is not the national picture at all.

We have several gas plants around the country that just sit there all but 2 weeks out of the year because they are too expensive to run. The "cheap" coal plants are still king.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby Alcassin » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 11:48:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'W')hy rely on them giving us what we want if we are willing to take it? The Saudi royal family is also falling out of favor and it's not unthinkable for them to be overthrown, where does that leave us?
Calling the Saudi's "friends" is a bit of a streach, we need them and they need us. Stalin and Roosevelt were not friends- they needed each other.


I use word "friends" after George H. W. Bush. Have you ever heard of Arbusto (bush in Spanish)?
Truman didn't call Soviets "friends" but used word "ally".

You can't attack Saudis - citigroup is a saudi corp, and the biggest bank on the world (you can compare it only to Japanese post). Petrodollar is another factor - why you can't - if they sell about 10 million barrels per day in dollars their trade it means huge demand of dollars every day. War would mean taking out 8 millions barrels a day from market.
This would ultimately crush world economy. And Saudis trade their oil mainly with the US. It's very close friendship. US arms the regime, if US wanted to do something good for Saudi Arabs, Bush should go there and build hospitals and schools instead of giving that regime guns. But hospitals and schools are not good for US because they will lead to increase demand for oil in Saudi Arabia. Growing Saudi economy is a nightmare for the world economy. TThat's why their income per capita dropped by 2/3 in last 30 years.

Another factor - Saudi Arabs will revolt the same day they are attacked, radical islamism is very popular among Saudi nation, and it is kind of S-F for everybody to see Hummer with American Flag in Mekkah. This would in my opinion cause 'thousands of 9/11', and the world would become the most dangerous place since Hitler.

Unilateral actions will drain rest of the US dignity, and people around the world (even in your allied countries) will recognize US as the main enemy. You don't live alone on this planet and nobody gave US position to think that it has the right to police the world.

Europeans are too smooth and mild to point it directly, but in 3rd world countries people are hostile against USA. Especially in ME, but also in across Latin America. This isn't because they 'hate your freedom' <lol> but because they never develop while their resources are used to create more and more wealth in West and to widen rich/poor gap... It's called globalization.

People in 3rd world hate globalization. And as centre (beneficier) of it they see West and particurarly US.
Peak oil is only an indication and a premise of limits to growth on a finite planet.
Denial is the most predictable of all human responses.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby clueless » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 11:55:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'W')hy rely on them giving us what we want if we are willing to take it? The Saudi royal family is also falling out of favor and it's not unthinkable for them to be overthrown, where does that leave us?
Calling the Saudi's "friends" is a bit of a streach, we need them and they need us. Stalin and Roosevelt were not friends- they needed each other.


I use word "friends" after George H. W. Bush. Have you ever heard of Arbusto (bush in Spanish)?
Truman didn't call Soviets "friends" but used word "ally".

You can't attack Saudis - citigroup is a saudi corp, and the biggest bank on the world (you can compare it only to Japanese post). Petrodollar is another factor - why you can't - if they sell about 10 million barrels per day in dollars their trade it means huge demand of dollars every day. War would mean taking out 8 millions barrels a day from market.
This would ultimately crush world economy. And Saudis trade their oil mainly with the US. It's very close friendship. US arms the regime, if US wanted to do something good for Saudi Arabs, Bush should go there and build hospitals and schools instead of giving that regime guns. But hospitals and schools are not good for US because they will lead to increase demand for oil in Saudi Arabia. Growing Saudi economy is a nightmare for the world economy. TThat's why their income per capita dropped by 2/3 in last 30 years.

Another factor - Saudi Arabs will revolt the same day they are attacked, radical islamism is very popular among Saudi nation, and it is kind of S-F for everybody to see Hummer with American Flag in Mekkah. This would in my opinion cause 'thousands of 9/11', and the world would become the most dangerous place since Hitler.

Unilateral actions will drain rest of the US dignity, and people around the world (even in your allied countries) will recognize US as the main enemy. You don't live alone on this planet and nobody gave US position to think that it has the right to police the world.

Europeans are too smooth and mild to point it directly, but in 3rd world countries people are hostile against USA. Especially in ME, but also in across Latin America. This isn't because they 'hate your freedom' <lol> but because they never develop while their resources are used to create more and more wealth in West and to widen rich/poor gap... It's called globalization.

People in 3rd world hate globalization. And as centre (beneficier) of it they see West and particurarly US.


Is there any truth to the rumor that the Saudi's have most of their oil infastructure mined ? I read that in "Secrets of the Kingdom" by Gerald Posner.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby jbeckton » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 12:18:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', '
')You can't attack Saudis - citigroup is a saudi corp, and the biggest bank on the world (you can compare it only to Japanese post). Petrodollar is another factor - why you can't - if they sell about 10 million barrels per day in dollars their trade it means huge demand of dollars every day. War would mean taking out 8 millions barrels a day from market.
This would ultimately crush world economy. And Saudis trade their oil mainly with the US. It's very close friendship. US arms the regime, if US wanted to do something good for Saudi Arabs, Bush should go there and build hospitals and schools instead of giving that regime guns. But hospitals and schools are not good for US because they will lead to increase demand for oil in Saudi Arabia. Growing Saudi economy is a nightmare for the world economy. TThat's why their income per capita dropped by 2/3 in last 30 years.

Another factor - Saudi Arabs will revolt the same day they are attacked, radical islamism is very popular among Saudi nation, and it is kind of S-F for everybody to see Hummer with American Flag in Mekkah. This would in my opinion cause 'thousands of 9/11', and the world would become the most dangerous place since Hitler.

Unilateral actions will drain rest of the US dignity, and people around the world (even in your allied countries) will recognize US as the main enemy. You don't live alone on this planet and nobody gave US position to think that it has the right to police the world.

Europeans are too smooth and mild to point it directly, but in 3rd world countries people are hostile against USA. Especially in ME, but also in across Latin America. This isn't because they 'hate your freedom' <lol> but because they never develop while their resources are used to create more and more wealth in West and to widen rich/poor gap... It's called globalization.

People in 3rd world hate globalization. And as centre (beneficier) of it they see West and particurarly US.


No exactly a news flash, everyone knows the story. But the question remains the same, if the US givernement knew that the oil crash was comming, and that there would be global collapse anyways, why not attach SA?

I'm not saying that we should attach SA, I am saying that it doesn't make sense to think that they are expecting global oil crash but attack Iraq instead of SA.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby clueless » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 12:29:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o exactly a news flash, everyone knows the story. But the question remains the same, if the US givernement knew that the oil crash was comming, and that there would be global collapse anyways, why not attach SA?

I'm not saying that we should attach SA, I am saying that it doesn't make sense to think that they are expecting global oil crash but attack Iraq instead of SA.


Noam Chomski offered a very viable explanation to this - Because Iraq was attackable and had no weapons. We had been bombing them for 15yrs and they presented no threat.

The Saudis on the other hand have quite alot of weaponry, what may happen in the future is we might stage a "terrorist attack" in Saudi Arabia and "come to their rescue" ( or at least the Royal Families Rescue) so to speak, kind of like we did for Kuwait. We may not be able to occupy a city, but we could very easily occupy the oil fields.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby jbeckton » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 12:32:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '
')The Saudis on the other hand have quite alot of weaponry


Yes, the weaponry we gave them, which makes this seem counter intuitive.

But it is the governemnt.....
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby clueless » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 12:36:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '
')The Saudis on the other hand have quite alot of weaponry


Yes, the weaponry we gave them, which makes this seem counter intuitive.

But it is the governemnt.....


Don't get me started, I worked for 15 yrs in the Weapons industry.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby Alcassin » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 12:47:59

It was attackable.
Iraq was under embargo, defenseless and ruled by antiamerican dictator. Perfect aim.

Embargo meant restrictions on oil production.
Saudis maybe were producing 90% of their capacity, Iraqi fields are the least explored and developed. This would add few millions barrel per day.
- This is why

The plan was to pump oil asap after invasion to keep oil flowing without restrictions. That was Bush saying "Do not destroy oil wells".
- This is how

European and russian oil corps were about to start drilling in 2004, and it was absolutely impossible to seize oil fields with european employers there. In 2004 embargo would be lifted as US couldn't veto alone with international hostility on that matter.
- This is when.

The main reason to attack Iraq is oil.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby Concerned » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 17:36:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '
')The Saudis on the other hand have quite alot of weaponry


Yes, the weaponry we gave them, which makes this seem counter intuitive.

But it is the governemnt.....


Not really. The weapons sold to SA are not top notch. Lesser standard air craft and avionics.

So you to sell a bunch of used military equipment and exchange it for oil.

Regards Iraq. There was no problem with Iraq or SA as long as they follow orders, give lots of fat contracts to US companies and sell oil in USD.

Iraq stopped following orders, kicked out US companies in favor of French and Russian investment, started selling oil in Euro. Iraq from what I've read also has some of the most under explored oil potential in the world.

If an oil crash/crunch was coming and you have a compliant SA following orders or a belligerent Iraq you would pretty much bitch slap Iraq and worry about SA later.

Unfortunately for the US (my opinion) looks like the whole world is playing the great game and holding them to stalemate in Iraq. This prohibits a neat exit with some puppet regime in place ready for the US to liberate or otherwise fix SA or Iran.

I still think it's possible the US will bomb Iran nuke facilities, I don't think such action will be a good outcome in the region.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 28 Aug 2007, 23:52:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russophile', ' ')\Surely governments are aware of the issue?


Of course. That's why we are in Iraq and will never leave.


If that were really the plan (not saying that has nothing to do with it), why not go to Saudi Arabia instead? They have much more oil, a better exporting infastructure, and it's home to most of the "terrorists".


Boy, you are quite in the dark on this aren't you?

Which was the easier sell?
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby jbeckton » Wed 29 Aug 2007, 07:26:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russophile', ' ')\Surely governments are aware of the issue?


Of course. That's why we are in Iraq and will never leave.


If that were really the plan (not saying that has nothing to do with it), why not go to Saudi Arabia instead? They have much more oil, a better exporting infastructure, and it's home to most of the "terrorists".


Boy, you are quite in the dark on this aren't you?

Which was the easier sell?


If they thought that it might be a nice asset to have and explore Iraq would be, but if they thought that we were really on the verge of a collapse, there really is no need for a sell because whoever has the last of the oil calls ALL fo the shots. And even if we failed, what is the alternative?

Which is the claim, that the US gov is knows we are about to have an oil crash. Besides, with nearly all of the hijackers from SA, there could very well have been a "case" for action of some sort.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby Alcassin » Wed 29 Aug 2007, 08:06:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f they thought that it might be a nice asset to have and explore Iraq would be, but if they thought that we were really on the verge of a collapse, there really is no need for a sell because whoever has the last of the oil calls ALL fo the shots. And even if we failed, what is the alternative?


Instead of big military spending which is creating enormous debt you could invest that 41% of your taxes to build a bit more sustainable country on your own with less dependence on oil. Instead giving more and more money to your corporate masters from taxes. US government will be always privatized, not elected. In Europe we see the same process but on much smaller scale.

Without damage, bombing, deaths with more responsible action and open international discussion. There are always peaceful solutions, you only have to think more, and find solutions - like subsiding ecovillages, breaks for non-carbon energy, money for scientific research in government agencies with cheap patents... and million others better than I wrote.
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Re: When, if at all, will society feel the brunt of peak oil

Postby jbeckton » Wed 29 Aug 2007, 08:19:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', '
')Instead of big military spending which is creating enormous debt you could invest that 41% of your taxes to build a bit more sustainable country on your own with less dependence on oil. Instead giving more and more money to your corporate masters from taxes. US government will be always privatized, not elected.


How do you do that with a "privatized" government?
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