[Graeme]

Black-Gold Booster

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ee Raymond succeeded as an oilman by staying focused on oil. (In the mid-1980s, he was responsible for unwinding the alternative-energy program at his former company, Exxon.) Now chairman of the National Petroleum Council, Raymond says that petroleum remains plentiful, and a new report he's prepared for the Bush administration argues for developing new sources of oil and gas. But the report also advocates moderating demand, especially by raising fuel efficiency in cars. As for global warming? Raymond, who is also chair of President Bush's alternative-energy committee, says, "No comment."

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o you think the world is running out of oil?
As the study says, the world is not running out of the resource. The problem we're getting into is the question, can we develop it in a timely way, given the constraints we have

[Sys1]

Graeme : after more than 1000 posts, you don't understand what peak oil means. It reminds me my first post on this site, when i thought that there was so much oil in Alberta that peak oil is false. Moreover, you fill the forum with many technofix in a business as usual obsession. There's no technofix to infinite growth, except perhabs if some shrink could fix braindead economists.

[Graeme]

Peak oil is a non-event and irrelevant. If demand exceeds supply, demand destruction will set in. This is not peak oil. Less oil will then be used and cheaper alternatives will be sought. The constraints will be economic not geologic - you say that there are 1 trillion barrels oil left. An economic crisis is not inevitable provided cheaper alternatives (and less oil consumption) are introduced/purchased gradually. Demand destruction/alterative technology introduction will be one constraint. Another is climate change - this is what is now relevant.

America (and the world) is now reacting to climate change. Here is an interesting article about cap and trade, and a possible carbon tax for American industry:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he pols and business leaders could suggest that America gradually impose such a tax, one that’s high enough within a decade to encourage industries and consumers to switch permanently to cleaner technology. A tax would mean higher power prices, too, but at least it wouldn’t mean directly subsidizing competitors abroad. And the feds could use the tax’s revenue to reduce taxes elsewhere in the economy—perhaps cutting dividend and capital-gains taxes further, to encourage the massive private investment needed to build the next generation of power generators. Nor would a tax create a new multibillion-dollar global commodity whose value could depend on political manipulation in dark corners of the world.

[Ludi]

The only "sustainable growth" is the growth of plants and the rest of the biotic community.


Every action we take should foster the growth of the biotic community, that is, Life.

[Graeme]

Aren't humans part of the biotic community? Yes, I agree with your second sentence, Ludi. Perhaps I should rephrase the term "growth" to be sustainable development, natural capitalism or environmental economics.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ustainable development is defined as balancing the fulfillment of human needs with the protection of the natural environment so that these needs can be met not only in the present, but in the indefinite future.

The field of sustainable development can be conceptually broken into four constituent parts: environmental sustainability, economic sustainability, social sustainability and political sustainability.

[snowhope]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'P')eak oil is a non-event and irrelevant.

[Graeme]

I deeply sympathsize with the families who have lost brave soldiers in the Middle East. But I'm sure you realise that about 60% of the world's reserves occur in the Middle East hence the importance of protecting the oil reserves there. This is a highly unstable region politically. If war broke out in Iran, oil prices would go through the roof. This is not peak oil. We are certainly extremely vulnerable to such a catastrophe occuring in this region so on this point we should be very nervous and this is relevant. I've read stories suggesting that the instability could be orchestrated in order to keep these reserves in the ground and hence keep oil prices relatively high. If this is the case, then peak oil will be delayed until around 2020 or later.

This political pressure should be giving us even more incentive (apart from climate change) to move away from oil into substitutes but greed and political inertia will keep us on business-as-usual path for a while yet. Fortunately, there are hopeful signs of change toward alternatives particularly in America.

[snowhope]

Graeme, do you seriously think for one minute that we can replace the inevitable decline in oil with other forms of energy in the next couple of decades? Forgetting about the growth in Chindia - a third of the world's population - how would we replace the many uses of oil upon which the world's economies are based?

Take just one use of oil - road transport - how would we be able to keep the trucks and cars going to supply all our food supermarkets in all the towns and cities through-out the world as is currently the case? How would we all get to our places of work, especially in the US with so many folks having 60-80 mile commutes? How will we achieve this with oil decline of say 3% (forgetting about 6 or 8%) per year. What do you seriously think declines will do to the price of oil when the they become more generally known?

I really look forward to your reply as I am clutching for straws and need somebody to convince me we are not about to enter the next depression. All I can currently see is a chaotic future and thats putting it diplomatically!

[Graeme]

I'm not sure that I can answer your question adequately in five minutes because I'm typing this at work.

It depends on who you believe. ASPO and others think that peak oil has occured or will occur within the next five years. Alternatively, the NPC and AAPG think that the peak will occur much later around 2020 at the earliest. I think the latter group is right. So world oil production is not declining yet. The NPC acknowledge that we will still have to use oil at least until 2030 but hopefully by then the world will have made deep inroads into oil consumption by using substitutes of one form or another. Just take your mindset off oil, which will inevitably decline as you say, and focus on the numerous attempts at finding alternatives. I posted one on hydrogen today. The are many others posted on this board - biofuels, electric cars, nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, energy efficiency, and more. All of these will be needed to offset the decline in oil in the decades ahead. The future is not neccesarily chaotic.

[AirlinePilot]

Graeme,

I gotta give you credit for hanging in there. I think for a while, during the time I was "learning" about oil production, reserves, and the possible peaking of world oil production, I thought as you do. I don't deny that mankind is going to exploit his ability to use technology to try and solve what obviously is going to be a problem with supply some time in the future.

I think though as Ive moved along the path of knowledge concerning this geologic truth, that we may just have screwed the pooch so to speak. Personally I dont agree about your assesment of when peak occurs. I think this is why you get some "friction" in here. It's becoming very evident to me that we may, notice I say may be very close to or just past peak. If you dont believe that then some of these things you post may seem at least plausible.

I think you might admit though that even if we can do a lot of these, I doubt all of them will come to fruition, we still have a fairly large deficit as we move into more rapid decline on the downslope.

It all hinges on where you think we are. I dont see that we have all that much time left and I think when presented with a lot of things here and over at TOD it gets very hard to believe any of these budding technologies will ever really get off the ground. The bottom line is this, no matter what we can come up with, short of some miracle tech, we cant replace the density and the ease and affordability that has been the hallmark of the black gold.

I do appreciate the updates though, at least there is some glimmer of hope for those who might think we have the time. I do learn new stuff from your many cornucopian posts.

[Graeme]

AirlinePilot, Thanks for your post. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. That's what I like about this board. There isn't too much editing of posts. Sometimes some of us are wrong and sometimes we are right. We all take a chance. Thanks for your compliments too - all I am trying to do here is help offer hope which is what I've said all along. I'm not going to offer solutions because there are plenty of smarter people out there who will do this for us. I'm mainly posting news stories but occasionally I chip in with my own deductions like now.

I don't believe in imminent peak because if that was the case then governments worldwide would be asking their citizens to conserve oil. There would be carless days, car pooling, mandatory rationing. The price of oil would be much higher so there would be queues at gas stations like in 1973. This is not happening.

I just read this interesting report by Euan Mearns TOD on SA oil reserves:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he major challenge that confronts us is not a lack of energy or engineering solutions but one of political, institutional, corporate and personal behaviour.

[azreal60]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't believe in imminent peak because if that was the case then governments worldwide would be asking their citizens to conserve oil. There would be carless days, car pooling, mandatory rationing. The price of oil would be much higher so there would be queues at gas stations like in 1973. This is not happening.

[Graeme]

Azreal60, No, I said imminent peak oil, that is peak in the near future (say< 5years). Peak oil will occur but I think around 2020. Below my avatar, it says that I live in New Zealand. My avatar is a picture of geothermal cooling towers discharging steam. Geothermal is one renewable which would be vigorously pursued if peak oil were occuring now. In the US, renewable promotion is also not happening (within government) but it is just beginning to (e.g. here).

I do believe that if the US was the only country not pursuing oil conservation (because it's leaders chose not to) whilst all others were, then peak oil would be occuring now. But no countries are conserving (except those with weak economies). It's interesting that you mention a war footing because that's precisely what would be occuring if we were at peak oil NOW. Ironically, the US is pursuing war in the Middle East at least in Iraq and Afganistan. If it chose to widen the war to include Iran, then the "war footing" that you speak of would need to be implemented because oil prices would be much higher than now.

I have never advocated endless, business-as-usual economic growth. I would prefer a green economy which is sustainable, and all of our energy sources to be renewable and non-carbon (we are far from either). The fact that renewables are not being utilised to any great extent yet suggests to me that we are not near peak. I think you fear that oil demand is going to exceed supply soon at least before 2020. This is not peak oil. If this occurs then demand destruction will certainly follow until supply exceeds demand again. The cycle will be repeated until there is no further supply. Then conservation measures and alternative energy policies will have to be implemented. At that point, the economy may well benefit greatly by pursuing such policies.

[azreal60]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f it chose to widen the war to include Iran, then the "war footing" that you speak of would need to be implemented because oil prices would be much higher than now

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', 'P')lease educate me as to your position, because right now I'm nothing if not confused.

[Graeme]

Azreal60, Yes I'm saying that imminent peak oil is not happening now otherwise governments around the world would be vigorously pursuing oil conservation and alternative energy policies. Period.

New Zealand is not conserving oil. We came close to it recently (about a year ago but I can't remember the exact date) when the government announced that carless days might be reintroduced but this was not implemented. Our government relies on advice from the IEA. You can see that our government does not expect peak oil to occur before 2030! So "intelligent" governments including NZ and USA are not doing anything because there is no peak oil now.

[Judgie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'A')zreal60, Yes I'm saying that imminent peak oil is not happening now otherwise governments around the world would be vigorously pursuing oil conservation and alternative energy policies. Period.

New Zealand is not conserving oil. We came close to it recently (about a year ago but I can't remember the exact date) when the government announced that carless days might be reintroduced but this was not implemented. Our government relies on advice from the IEA. You can see that our government does not expect peak oil to occur before 2030! So "intelligent" governments including NZ and USA are not doing anything because there is no peak oil now.

[AlexaeU24]

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