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OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

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OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby bobaloo » Wed 22 Aug 2007, 23:34:52

Surprised I haven't seen this here, so here's a link:

Ticker Board

Basically, today someone just be $2 BILLION that the markets are going to go down by 30 percent in the next 3 weeks. People don't accumulate $2 billion by being wrong too often.

Put that together with the terror "drill" coming up in the PNW, the "suspicious passengers" being spread all over the papers here and the short selling of airlines just before 9/11 and I'm officially concerned.

Off to the feed store first thing in the morning, I still have a couple of empty barrels...
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby jdumars » Wed 22 Aug 2007, 23:43:58

After years of seemingly endless fretting and prognosticating, I realized the following...

You won't see it coming. And if you do, it won't be anything like you imagined.
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby NEOPO » Thu 23 Aug 2007, 00:12:15

Yes, it is not if but when and yes the elite have their finger on the button as it has always been.
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 23 Aug 2007, 00:58:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobaloo', 'S')urprised I haven't seen this here, so here's a link:

Ticker Board

Basically, today someone just be $2 BILLION that the markets are going to go down by 30 percent in the next 3 weeks. .


Your link didn't lead to anything supporting your claim about a massive short position on the market. Do you have any other documentation of the huge short position? 8)
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 23 Aug 2007, 09:31:54

All its going to take is a big bank, mortgage house, or a huge hedge fund imploding to blast folks out into the clear instead of where they are right now. If that happens, and it appears it may shortly, than that is all its going to take for a rush to the door.

Right now I doubt you need any event other than that to cause this poorly propped up market to really go south.

I think it's just another tidbit of info showing how ugly things are getting in the banking world.
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby Roccland » Thu 23 Aug 2007, 10:31:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobaloo', 'S')urprised I haven't seen this here, so here's a link:

Ticker Board

Basically, today someone just be $2 BILLION that the markets are going to go down by 30 percent in the next 3 weeks. .


Your link didn't lead to anything supporting your claim about a massive short position on the market. Do you have any other documentation of the huge short position? 8)


Yes it did ...there are at least 6 pages of discussion behind that link.
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby Roccland » Thu 23 Aug 2007, 10:33:32

And here is what the owner of that site just posted this AM ...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ep - they stuck.

Now - why?

Either they were coded wrong OR someone thinks the market is going to crash in the next month.
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby seahorse2 » Thu 23 Aug 2007, 14:07:53

I'm not familiar with puts etc. Can someone please explain what exactly is going on?

Further, on the board linked, there was speculation there the initial trade was a mistaken short which the "shorter" tried to quickly resolve. Is this the case?
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby Opies » Fri 24 Aug 2007, 01:17:41

no, these look like they are sticking. This doesn't seem like a glitch as it has increased, and stuck. Everybody sees this so if it was a glitch it would have been fixed. Somebody is counting on something big
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby TWilliam » Fri 24 Aug 2007, 02:10:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'I')'m not familiar with puts etc. Can someone please explain what exactly is going on?


Ok let's see if I can remember this right.

A put option is essentially a bet that the value of a particular stock is going to decline at some point in the future.

An option is a contract that gives the option holder control of an asset (in this case a specified number of shares), without actually purchasing it, for an agreed upon period of time, subject to the provision that said holder must liquidate (purchase) those shares at an agreed upon price when the time period expires.

The holder then immediately sells those shares at whatever the current market value is, in the hope that their value will subsequently decline prior to the expiration of the option. When (if) the price falls, the holder then buys the shares back at the reduced value, returning them to whomever they borrowed them from, effectively canceling the option contract and pocketing the difference.

The risk of course lies in the fact that if the stock value has risen, rather than declined by the time the option expires, then the holder will be forced to either buy back the shares at the inflated cost in order to cancel the option, or honor the contract and pay the original lender the price agreed upon.
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby seldom_seen » Fri 24 Aug 2007, 03:14:41

Did anyone read deep enough into the thread to figure out if someone sold 120,000 calls or bought up 120,000 calls?

If you click here, and look in the Volume column you can see what they are taking about:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=SPY
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby NEOPO » Fri 24 Aug 2007, 05:34:23

Boy isnt that an interesting yet cryptic (to the untrained eye) thread?

Does anyone here have an educated opinion of exactly wtf is going on?

Me thinks the US=CHINA is simply BS and that if the Chin's wanted to they could indeed fall back behind their massive wall and do without wally world and all the rest and laugh, oh they would laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh 8)

Seems there would be many other ways to crash the market if need be, many other way less obvious ways.

remember remember the 11th of september...
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby phaeryen » Fri 24 Aug 2007, 06:45:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'B')oy isnt that an interesting yet cryptic (to the untrained eye) thread?

Does anyone here have an educated opinion of exactly wtf is going on?

Me thinks the US=CHINA is simply BS and that if the Chin's wanted to they could indeed fall back behind their massive wall and do without wally world and all the rest and laugh, oh they would laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh 8)

Seems there would be many other ways to crash the market if need be, many other way less obvious ways.

remember remember the 11th of september...


No, China can't go into economic/political isolation mode. They are booming, building and exporting heavily, and are completely interwoven into the globalisation scheme, for good and for bad. You can't do business if you start shooting your customers. Everything indicates that this booming and westernising is what China wants for itself, so I'm sorry NEOPO.
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby NEOPO » Fri 24 Aug 2007, 06:58:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('phaeryen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'B')oy isnt that an interesting yet cryptic (to the untrained eye) thread?

Does anyone here have an educated opinion of exactly wtf is going on?

Me thinks the US=CHINA is simply BS and that if the Chin's wanted to they could indeed fall back behind their massive wall and do without wally world and all the rest and laugh, oh they would laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh 8)

Seems there would be many other ways to crash the market if need be, many other way less obvious ways.

remember remember the 11th of september...


No, China can't go into economic/political isolation mode. They are booming, building and exporting heavily, and are completely interwoven into the globalisation scheme, for good and for bad. You can't do business if you start shooting your customers. Everything indicates that this booming and westernising is what China wants for itself, so I'm sorry NEOPO.


right.... Another Shot in Currency Fight: Chinese Threaten Divestment

One way to postpone the inevitable is to stifle economic activity in other countries = resource war.

Back away from the thread slowly, remind yourself of where you are (po.com) and then think, think long and hard.

No need to apologize as I get zero pleasure out of saying "I told you so" especially considering the subject matter.

It might not make sense to shoot yourself in the hand unless it is firmly planted on the forehead of your enemy.
Did I say that? 8)
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby Fredrik » Fri 24 Aug 2007, 14:49:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'M')e thinks the US=CHINA is simply BS and that if the Chin's wanted to they could indeed fall back behind their massive wall and do without wally world and all the rest and laugh, oh they would laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh 8)


But how would they get their oil then? At their present population, infrastructure and energy-dependence, China is anything but self-sustainable.
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 24 Aug 2007, 14:54:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '.')..there are at least 6 pages of discussion behind that link.



Discussing at this internet site the discussions on a bulletin board at a different internet site doesn't prove anything.

Is there any firm evidence of this purported trade other then these internet rumors posted on bulletin boards? :roll:
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby seldom_seen » Fri 24 Aug 2007, 15:16:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I')s there any firm evidence of this purported trade other then these internet rumors posted on bulletin boards? :roll:

Yeah, you can see the trades right here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=SPY

Look at all the 10,000s in the Vol column. That's exactly what they're talking about.
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 24 Aug 2007, 15:22:01

Of course.

Thats my point. Where is the huge short that this topic is about?

Show me the 2 billion in short sales placed by one individual betting that the market will go down 30% in three weeks?
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby seldom_seen » Fri 24 Aug 2007, 15:31:52

You're right, in that there is no way do decipher the motive behind this trade by just looking at the numbers.

It was a significantly large option trade, involving over 700 million dollars.
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Re: OK, NOW I'm worried...Is this the sign?

Unread postby Roccland » Fri 24 Aug 2007, 16:19:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '.')..there are at least 6 pages of discussion behind that link.



Discussing at this internet site the discussions on a bulletin board at a different internet site doesn't prove anything.

Is there any firm evidence of this purported trade other then these internet rumors posted on bulletin boards? :roll:


Nope ...nothing I heard on Fox I can post for you PA as evidence.
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