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Here's What Peak Oil Actually Looks Like

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Here's What Peak Oil Actually Looks Like

Unread postby billp » Tue 14 Aug 2007, 20:49:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he roller coaster starts downslope slowly at first.


Any mistakes differentiating?

We're out of math and into legal stuff these days.
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Re: Here's What Peak Oil Actually Looks Like

Unread postby timbo » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 01:03:49

Another interesting possibility is the demand destruction caused by a severe recession in the U.S. due to the sub-prime loan mess effectively postponing peak.

Gotta love the alternatives.
1) Economy eventually craps out due to peak.
2) Economy crashes as the bubbles burst and never recovers due to lack of energy for the restart of a "growth" model economy.
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Re: Here's What Peak Oil Actually Looks Like

Unread postby veliger » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 09:01:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '
')...............Oh yes you are right, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, India, Nepal.......these places were little pieces of heaven a few years ago when oil was cheap...................


Quote of the day, hands down.

One of the great mysteries of the world to me is how some countries with every advantage imaginable can never seem to get their sh** together. The countries you mentioned above along with most of Africa and South and Central America are great examples.

Mexico is my favorite example. Mexico has everything going for it, natural resources, a friendly trading relationship with the greatest economy in the history of the planet next door, and a relatively ethnically and religiously homogenous population. Absolutely everything going for it and Mexico is still a hell-hole, go figure.
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Re: Here's What Peak Oil Actually Looks Like

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 09:27:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '.')..I haven't kept up with every thread, but I personally cannot recall any post by a knowledgeable person here who claimed general collapse immediately upon peak oil.

Of course not, and jbeckton knows that perfectly well. He's being trollish purely for the sake of baiting folks. He's just having a little contrarian fun.

For some people, that sort of thing is a hobby.
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Re: Here's What Peak Oil Actually Looks Like

Unread postby jbeckton » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 13:47:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '.')..I haven't kept up with every thread, but I personally cannot recall any post by a knowledgeable person here who claimed general collapse immediately upon peak oil.

Of course not, and jbeckton knows that perfectly well. He's being trollish purely for the sake of baiting folks. He's just having a little contrarian fun.

For some people, that sort of thing is a hobby.



2 years is immediatly?

These examples are of general collapse?

Give me a break, my point was that these examples are not evidence of PO. Plain and simple.
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Re: Here's What Peak Oil Actually Looks Like

Unread postby jbeckton » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 15:20:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '.')..I haven't kept up with every thread, but I personally cannot recall any post by a knowledgeable person here who claimed general collapse immediately upon peak oil.


Well, who do you consider knowledgeable?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '.')..The effects are not way off; there is almost no grace period remaining.


-When talking about a economic breakdown followed by a recession.
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Re: Here's What Peak Oil Actually Looks Like

Unread postby jbeckton » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 15:22:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '.')..I haven't kept up with every thread, but I personally cannot recall any post by a knowledgeable person here who claimed general collapse immediately upon peak oil.


Well, who do you consider knowledgeable?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '.')..The effects are not way off; there is almost no grace period remaining.


-When talking about a economic breakdown followed by a depression.

http://peakoil.com/fortopic28755-15.html
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Re: Here's What Peak Oil Actually Looks Like

Unread postby jdmartin » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 16:59:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('veliger', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '
')...............Oh yes you are right, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, India, Nepal.......these places were little pieces of heaven a few years ago when oil was cheap...................


Quote of the day, hands down.

One of the great mysteries of the world to me is how some countries with every advantage imaginable can never seem to get their sh** together. The countries you mentioned above along with most of Africa and South and Central America are great examples.

Mexico is my favorite example. Mexico has everything going for it, natural resources, a friendly trading relationship with the greatest economy in the history of the planet next door, and a relatively ethnically and religiously homogenous population. Absolutely everything going for it and Mexico is still a hell-hole, go figure.


Actually, countries that get their shit together are by far the exception in the world rather than the rule. Besides, most of the ones that "don't" are places that were ruled for many years by a colonial power that suddenly pulled out, either through force (think Mexico forcing out the Spaniards and then the French) or through benevolence (Britain pulling out of some of its African territories), and left a power vacuum in its place that was inevitably filled by people more or less like the ones that just left.

I think it lends credence to the idea that chaos and disorder are the natural state of things and that capitalism, civilization and society are "unnatural".
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: Here's What Peak Oil Actually Looks Like

Unread postby Twilight » Sun 19 Aug 2007, 19:33:07

Anyone waiting for generalised collapse is going to be waiting a long time, depending on where they are. If you're the right person in the right place, you could be looking at your world decades hence, wondering what all the fuss was about. Of course, the proportion of people in the shit might have gone up from 60% to 90%, but hell, what's new?

Relax, grab more popcorn and another cold can. If you've got the internet now, you are probably going to have the corn and the beer later.
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Re: Here's What Peak Oil Actually Looks Like

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 20 Aug 2007, 10:15:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]jbeckton said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]coyote wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..I haven't kept up with every thread, but I personally cannot recall any post by a knowledgeable person here who claimed general collapse immediately upon peak oil.



Well, who do you consider knowledgeable?

shortonoil wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..The effects are not way off; there is almost no grace period remaining.



-When talking about a economic breakdown followed by a recession.

The justification for my comment is quite simple. If you take Hubbert’s Curve and compensate for the historical decline in ERoEI, that is you multiply the function by 1-1/ERoEI, you get a curve within the original curve. This curve gives you the historical net available energy (NAE) that came from oil. It also gives you the future NAE from oil. The interesting fact is that on the back side of Hubbert’s curve the NAE declines BEFORE oil production declines. This is the result of oils past ERoEI declines.

Since all economic activity requires energy (to compensate for this we would need massive energy conservation and efficiency increases, which aren’t happening) declines in economic activity will lead oil production declines. Basically, Peak Oil will blind side us. Don’t expect a warning shoot, it’s already been fired.
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Re: Here's What Peak Oil Actually Looks Like

Unread postby jbeckton » Mon 20 Aug 2007, 10:57:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]jbeckton said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]coyote wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..I haven't kept up with every thread, but I personally cannot recall any post by a knowledgeable person here who claimed general collapse immediately upon peak oil.



Well, who do you consider knowledgeable?

shortonoil wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..The effects are not way off; there is almost no grace period remaining.



-When talking about a economic breakdown followed by a recession.

The justification for my comment is quite simple. If you take Hubbert’s Curve and compensate for the historical decline in ERoEI, that is you multiply the function by 1-1/ERoEI, you get a curve within the original curve. This curve gives you the historical net available energy (NAE) that came from oil. It also gives you the future NAE from oil. The interesting fact is that on the back side of Hubbert’s curve the NAE declines BEFORE oil production declines. This is the result of oils past ERoEI declines.

Since all economic activity requires energy (to compensate for this we would need massive energy conservation and efficiency increases, which aren’t happening) declines in economic activity will lead oil production declines. Basically, Peak Oil will blind side us. Don’t expect a warning shoot, it’s already been fired.

I quoted you becuase I was told that no one (knowledgeable) here felt that general collapse would quickly follow peak. I know that I have heard a lot of people insist that once PO was reaced economic impact would quickly follow, and with that, general collapse. Your post seems to put you in this catagory.

I haven't read many of your posts but was just looking for someone with a high post count that claimed that the effects of PO were imminate.

Of course high post count does not mean that someone really knows what they are talking about (pstarr).

Do you dispute this as your position?
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