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I have a bad feeling about this week.

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby dinopello » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 02:46:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '[')url=http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/consumer-pessimism-hits-2-year-high/story.aspx?guid=%7BD4A034BA%2DB051%2D477A%2D9D14%2D0459D4ED2130%7D&dist=MorePulse]Consumer pessimism hits 2-year high: ABC/Post poll[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he survey also showed that 57% of the consumers surveyed think the economy is getting worse, the highest since October 2005, while 15% say it's getting better.


Don't you love these polls? Two weeks ago there was this discussion

Consumer Confidence Highest Since 9/11
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Zardoz » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 03:49:49

Basis Capital Tells Investors Loss May Exceed 80%

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')asis Capital Fund Management Ltd. told investors losses at one of its hedge funds may exceed 80 percent as the U.S. subprime mortgage rout prompted creditors to force the Sydney-based company to sell assets.

Basis Capital is unable to "accurately estimate'' the value of units in its Yield Fund, the hedge fund said today in a letter sent to investors and obtained by Bloomberg News. The losses have worsened since a month ago, when it said the fund may decline 50 percent.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby MD » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 04:53:23

No need to worry if you have equity positions in energy companies.

They'll get funded to the bitter end.

If you have no wealth and are not employed in a key industry, you'd better switch now; if you can.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Zardoz » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 09:16:03

Subprime's biggest losers - It's not just mortgage lenders. Wall Street banks and homebuilders have also gotten trampled.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]So far this year, shares of mortgage lenders like Countrywide Financial and IndyMac Bancorp Inc. have tumbled, losing up to half their value amid rising delinquencies and signs that even high-quality borrowers are falling behind.

Emphasis on "so far". Nobody knows what's coming over the next year or two. That's the worst thing about all this.

U.S. Futures Fall; Asian, European Shares Drop on Credit Woes

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. stock-index futures retreated and European and Asian sharees dropped on concern the fallout from the subprime-mortgage rout is spreading.

Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, fell after Merrill Lynch & Co. lowered the stock to "sell.'' UBS AG and Deutsche Bank AG led a decline by European banks after analysts downgraded the shares, saying tougher financing conditions will hurt profit. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., two of Japan's biggest banks, sank to two-year lows after reporting losses on investments related to U.S. subprime loans.


Lender reports rising defaults - Countrywide home foreclosures and delinquencies surge to five-year highs in July.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n a grim report that helped send mortgage stocks reeling, No. 1 home lender Countrywide Financial Corp. said Tuesday that foreclosures and delinquencies jumped in July to the highest levels in more than five years.

The company's monthly report also shows that its volume of new loans to people with poor credit has sharply contracted despite the disappearance since last year of scores of smaller rivals that specialized in sub-prime mortgages.

A spokesman for Calabasas-based Countrywide said Tuesday that layoffs were possible. The company's stock sank 8%.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby ritter » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 20:00:12

Anyone notice that the Dow has dropped from 1400 to 1281 this month? Wonder when I should cash out the 'ol 401k....
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Eli » Wed 15 Aug 2007, 21:54:48

Personally I would do it now. The market is in serious upheaval there is nothing wrong with sitting it out for awhile and parking your money in a treasury backed money market that pays 4% for awhile.

I think dow 15000 is not going to happen any time soon it is not likely that you are going to miss out on the biggest bull run of all time. Actually you were just part of it.

I would be careful things are so out of tune that you have to make sure the money market you are in does not hold a lot of commercial paper. As of right now the commercial paper is not selling.


Hurricane up the wazoo into the gulf, oil production and refining shut in and add to that the worst credit bubble of all time. Basically we are looking at 5% wag chance at the worst economic crisis of all time.
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Eli » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 00:10:34

Sorry for the double post but the Yen carry trade is off to a very disturbing run. That will make Thursday interesting again.

The credit crunch is horrible the Carry trade coming apart is the fourth horseman of the Apocalypse.
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Roccland » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 00:14:34

115.98 ping ! !
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Roccland » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 00:18:29

115.82 holy hell!!!
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Roccland » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 00:20:42

115.69 look out below!!!
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Armageddon » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 00:24:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '1')15.82 holy hell!!!


huh ?

also, the nikkei is down 400 points in early trading
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Roccland » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 00:28:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '1')15.82 holy hell!!!


huh ?

also, the nikkei is down 400 points in early trading


And futures are getting crushed...

If this keeps up the market crashes tomorrow...Friday latest.
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Eli » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 00:36:43

Great link on why the Yen is important.

Armageddon if you need some info on it the above is a great link.
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Bewildebeest » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 00:44:46

Swiss franc was also used for carry trade, yet the dollar is gaining substantially against it at the same time it is losing against the yen. I did not expect this and am not sure why it is happening.

USD is gaining lots of ground on all currencies except yen.
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Eli » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 00:56:25

Look for the Fed and the ECB to be in full battle mode tomorrow.

Lots of cash will be injected but it will probably mean next to nothing, futures are down -210.

That means full on crash in the morning.
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Armageddon » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 01:27:01

how long can they keep pumping in money ? Untill foreign countries cash out on the dollar ?
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Zardoz » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 01:44:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'H')ow long can they keep pumping in money?

As long as they like. They can just keep on "issuing" all they want. Our phony fiat money isn't even printed on paper any more. It's just streams of digital code. It's virtual currency. It's the biggest scam of all time. Ben Bernanke is the master con man, and we're all his willing henchmen.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Zardoz » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 02:31:54

Wheeeeeeee!!!!

Global Stocks, High-Yield Currencies Tumble on Credit Crunch

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Blood is hitting the streets, everyone seems to be panicking, and there's reason to panic,'' said Patrick Chang, who helps manage $4.5 billion at CIMB-Principal Asset Management Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. "There's been so much blow-up, we don't know when it's going to end. Liquidity is drying up.''
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: I have a bad feeling about this week.

Postby Jack » Thu 16 Aug 2007, 08:22:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'h')ow long can they keep pumping in money ? Until foreign countries cash out on the dollar ?


Who benefits if the U.S. dollar really, truly fails - the consequence of foreign countries cashing out? No one, really.

Who benefits if, at least for the present, the status quo is, to some degree, maintained? Almost everyone.

Who benefits from debased currencies? Debtors. Which includes governments everywhere, hedge funds, banks, and all the rest of the big players.

Who gets hurt by debased currencies? Hard working, frugal people who hold unleveraged currency-denominated assets.

So, then, what course will be favored by the fiscal powers? I think the answer is obvious.

8)
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